NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Camo123 wrote:

Isn’t that the point of preseason reviewing averages in the expectation of position and mins they’ll play to find value

E.g. I’m not looking at any of Schuster scores from 2023 because he’s expected to play EDG and not HLF. Nor am I expecting someone to get injured multiple times a season when they haven’t really been injury prone

Milchcow wrote:

Yes, but Cheese's role hasn't changed from last year to this year, so if you find yourself discarding a third of his scores, you have to ask yourself why. How many of his poor scores can you attribute to injury

I might still start with him, I haven't actually looked at building a team yet this year. But he certainly won't be my only hooker if I do pick him. He certainly can score well, but he also is very capable of low fantasy output

L-Jimmy wrote:


That's the risk, yep!

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I will redo the prediction based on all the feedback.

Paulo - 50
Lussick/Hands - 80
Campbell Gillard - 50
Cartwright - 80
Lane - 70
Hopgood - 60

Matterson - 50
Ofahengaue - 20
Tuilagi - 20
Grieg - 0

If Ofahengaue, Tuilagi or Grieg are to spend any decent time on the field, someone is missing out on minutes on the EDG

Milchcow wrote:

Yes, but Cheese's role hasn't changed from last year to this year, so if you find yourself discarding a third of his scores, you have to ask yourself why. How many of his poor scores can you attribute to injury

I might still start with him, I haven't actually looked at building a team yet this year. But he certainly won't be my only hooker if I do pick him. He certainly can score well, but he also is very capable of low fantasy output

Milchcow wrote:

Yes, but Cheese's role hasn't changed from last year to this year, so if you find yourself discarding a third of his scores, you have to ask yourself why. How many of his poor scores can you attribute to injury

I might still start with him, I haven't actually looked at building a team yet this year. But he certainly won't be my only hooker if I do pick him. He certainly can score well, but he also is very capable of low fantasy output

my tv broke wrote:I can see myself picking Cheese again.

easytiger wrote:

Just noting that both RCG and Paulo as starting props averaged 55 mins and there's no reason to suggest this drops.
As already suggested BA prefers his edges to play 80, but we'll leave a 70 minute there anyhow
Matterson averaged 52 off the bench last year, but 6 out of 9 were 52 or more minutes
And let's believe Arthur about an 80 min hooker and an 80 min Hopgood;

Paulo - 55
Lussick/Hands - 80
Campbell Gillard - 55
Cartwright - 80
Lane - 70
Hopgood - 80

Matterson - 52
Ofahengaue - 8
Tuilagi - 0
Grieg - 0

I think this fairly well highlights the problem...
How many NRL games can he play with essentially just 14 men and some injury cover?

SPOILER:

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:I agree about Smith having limited upside, yet the same could be said for almost all the HOK options this year [except for an 80-minute Lussick]

The safest option appears to be Tanah Boyd - priced slightly below what he is worth - goal kicking half from a team that should score a lot of points this year - and somehow despite playing every single game at HLF last year is still DPP.

Alfie wrote:

How are you able to resist making a team? Is it possible to learn this power?

robelgordo wrote:

I don't do it, can't even look at this seriously until 2nd week of trials when you get a real idea of what teams are likely to be.

easytiger wrote:

I was imagining that I'd probably have him, but having a look through his numbers last year & getting rid of a couple of injury games (because they never happen haha), he seems like a low 40s guy from low 60s minutes.

Where he looks value is IF he plays as a near 80 minute hooker.
Robinsons management of him last year didn't really suggest this with any certainty. Although 5/7 last regular season games were 66+ minutes,  3 of which in the 70s.

That's what I think we'd want, but the killer for me is Robinson has always been good for tanking potentially fantasy relevant forwards with a random sub 40 min effort.

This seemed true for 2 of those last 7 games with a 47 and a 35 minute game.
It's a risk with limited upside imo, and I certainly wouldn't want to run him as my only hooker (he'd have to be a #14) if he's even worth the investment.
Fairly decent bye schedule though

Camo123 wrote:

Final cheese post  

I wouldn’t really say his injuries are recurring injuries to be scared of. Rib soreness, Broken hand in 2023. Broken thumb in 2022.

It’s not like they’re muscle injuries like Brimson/Turbo hamstrings

Alfie wrote:

How are you able to resist making a team? Is it possible to learn this power?

easytiger wrote:

I was imagining that I'd probably have him, but having a look through his numbers last year & getting rid of a couple of injury games (because they never happen haha), he seems like a low 40s guy from low 60s minutes.

Where he looks value is IF he plays as a near 80 minute hooker.
Robinsons management of him last year didn't really suggest this with any certainty. Although 5/7 last regular season games were 66+ minutes,  3 of which in the 70s.

That's what I think we'd want, but the killer for me is Robinson has always been good for tanking potentially fantasy relevant forwards with a random sub 40 min effort.

This seemed true for 2 of those last 7 games with a 47 and a 35 minute game.
It's a risk with limited upside imo, and I certainly wouldn't want to run him as my only hooker (he'd have to be a #14) if he's even worth the investment.
Fairly decent bye schedule though