NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

Article from a few months ago when the Storm were courting Blore. Basically says that Bellamy sees him as a middle. If that's still the case, then the pivot to my pre-season subgun crush Katoa will be complete.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/shock-and-blore-tigers-gun-head-hunted-by-bellamy-but-wants-to-stay-put-20230824-p5dz9p.html

rhinoceroo wrote:

Not going to comment on individual players as if you enjoy watching them, you enjoy watching them (do you really enjoy watching Bostock though?) What I will say is that three Storm players and an early bye could be problematic.

Bostock is in the cheap filler class.

Really good point re the byes, that won't fly. Cheers

....

Alfie wrote:


I don’t think Luki starts; could be wrong. Do centres really look for work outside Manu and Turbo in Origin? You’re a brave man banking on two mid centres to jump to gun tear. I like the Munster pick.

Sualii averaged 50 on the wing last season, with the goal kicking duties (just 30 average at CTR)

mattnz wrote:

Sualii averaged 50 on the wing last season, with the goal kicking duties (just 30 average at CTR)

Who’s not making the team out of Tupou and Young? Don’t forget Walker took the tee back for the finals.

Alfie wrote:

Who’s not making the team out of Tupou and Young? Don’t forget Walker took the tee back for the finals.

Some talk that Tupou may miss out, with Smith keeping the CTR spot.

There must have been something wrong with Sualii in the finals, as Billy Smith took a conversion.

rhinoceroo wrote:Article from a few months ago when the Storm were courting Blore. Basically says that Bellamy sees him as a middle. If that's still the case, then the pivot to my pre-season subgun crush Katoa will be complete.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/shock-and-blore-tigers-gun-head-hunted-by-bellamy-but-wants-to-stay-put-20230824-p5dz9p.html

I’m more keen on Blore if left edge running off Munster yes please.

mattnz wrote:

Sualii averaged 50 on the wing last season, with the goal kicking duties (just 30 average at CTR)

And I do not think Suaali keeps that up he avg 34.8 in 2022. I think S. Walker will GK.

He’s priced at 38 I’d have him at about a 40 avg personally.

Rabbits21 wrote:
I’m more keen on Blore if left edge running off Munster yes please.

Blore vs Katoa if they're both on edge then yes, Blore wins due to the price difference. That article says Bellamy sees Blore as a middle though. Katoa (EDG) v Blore (MID), Katoa wins. Maybe things have changed since then, we'll see,

mattnz wrote:

Just keep an eye out if Radley gets injured and he starts playing lock. In NSW Cup, he was playing 80 minutes at lock towards the end of last season, with scores of 60, 70, 58, 71 and 70 with just 2 tries total in those games.

If Radley gets injured Watson will be first cab off the rank at lock so the play style can stay the same. After that I would expect Nat Butcher before any of the young guys get a shot

mattnz wrote:

Some talk that Tupou may miss out, with Smith keeping the CTR spot.

There must have been something wrong with Sualii in the finals, as Billy Smith took a conversion.

This talk is nonsense. Billy Smith will start the year in reserve grade

Teddy
Tupou
Suaali'i
Manu
Young

On Wong you are banking on a young up and comer who has his best days in front of him. I think Crichton is a better fantasy option is starting on the edge but will likely have both if named

Nothing is definite, but my best bet would be Angus will never be the same player and him and his manager should’ve done a better job trying to fleece rugby for as much cash as they could

robelgordo wrote:Nothing is definite, but my best bet would be Angus will never be the same player and him and his manager should’ve done a better job trying to fleece rugby for as much cash as they could

That may end up being true, but I sincerely hope it's not.
He's only 27 years old - should be in his prime physically.

Anyone could find themselves one day needing a mental-health break - The way our brains are neuroplastic, if he's had good support and playing NRL is what he really wants to do - then there's equally every chance he could come back better and stronger than ever

easytiger wrote:

That may end up being true, but I sincerely hope it's not.
He's only 27 years old - should be in his prime physically, and anyone could find themselves oneday needing a mental-health break.
The way our brains are neuroplastic, there's equally every chance he could come back better and stronger than ever

Bipolar is not curable and overwhelmingly does not just go away. It can be managed, but he will be dealing with it for the rest of his life.

Doesn't mean he won't be able to perform, but there may be times -if he is having an episode that he will have manic depressive days.

Hard to know if he has been suffering with it for a while (and his scores have been effected in the past) or its recently onset. Average age of onset is 25.

I hope he can come back to his best too.

I don’t know whether he was already diagnosed bipolar or whether what happened in Europe triggered a first episode. Media says the latter. My source said former before anything broke in the media. Doesn’t matter.

I do know that there is truth in pretty much all the rumours, even if sometimes the details are inconsistent the broad strokes are all real things. I knew last season the stuff about him being back in training and ready R1 was never gonna happen.

Im glad his case has been handled as discretely and sensitively by the media and everyone as it has. Could’ve easily been a #codeincrisis piece where by the time the full details came out it was too late to restore his rep. I think Angus is lucky that Roosters are a well run club with a very powerful well connected owner, that probably helped keep the dogs at bay until they could control the narrative. I think also, as much as it shouldn’t, the element of being a nice middle class white country boy as opposed to indigenous or Polynesian/westie, has probably played a role there.

TBH I really don't know the details aside from the occasional headline

I have mixed and possibly opposed thoughts on details being reported in the media;
- I naively think someone's struggles shouldn't have a place in the public domain
- At the same time, I guess maybe it can help society as a whole demystify issues with mental health and maybe in time people become more understanding and supportive.

Anyway, I hadn't realised he was dealing with a bipolar disorder.
Just wish him (or anyone in that place) all the best really

On another note, here are fantasy averages by position from 2023;

	FANTASY	MINS	PPM
HLF	49.3	78.3	0.63
LCK	46.4	59.7	0.78
EDG	44.6	72.3	0.62
FLB	42.8	78.2	0.55
HOK	41.6	65.8	0.63
PRP	40.2	47.3	0.85
5/8	36.7	77.7	0.47
CTR	36.2	78.4	0.46
WNG	33.5	78.9	0.42
INT*	25.4	32.2	0.79

*Interchange averages are for players that took the field (i.e. it does not mean that total interchange involvement is 4*32.2minutes as some coaches leave some players unused on the bench *cough* BA

It's weird to see the Centre average creeping close to the 5/8 average...

Here are the comparative stats from 2022;

	FANTASY	MINS	PPM
HLF	44.5	78.4	0.57
LCK	45.2	59.1	0.76
EDG	44.0	72.4	0.61
FLB	38.7	77.4	0.50
HOK	43.8	65.6	0.67
PRP	40.0	46.9	0.85
5/8	39.9	78.8	0.51
CTR	34.0	78.2	0.44
WNG	31.8	78.2	0.41
INT	25.0	32.2	0.78

I vaguely recall Booze having a bit of a halves strategy and this proved correct in the overall stats shifts between '22 and '23;

HLF +4.8pts
FLB +4.1pts

CTR +2.2pts
WNG +1.7pts

LCK + 1.2pts
EDG +0.6pts
PRP + 0.2pts

HOK -2.2pts
5/8 -3.2pts

How did the points changes happen?
HLF: Picked up 4 points from an extra tackle (with slight reduction in MT), 8.2 extra MG, 67.5 extra KM and slightly improved their try rate from 19% -> 21.6% (which corresponded to a similar reduction in try rate by 5/8s).
The increase in KM only in part came from a reduction for 5/8s with them falling by 37.6m.

There was probably a little more ball in play on average with overall tackles, MG and KM all up a little on the previous year.

FLB: Increased MG by 17.6 and 0.6TB, but the biggest uptick came in Tries 35.7% -> 45.2% and a small uptick in Try Assists

CTR & WNG: both increased MG by about 12m. CTR had a healthy uptick in try scoring 22.3% -> 30.6%

Coaches do seem to want their back 3 to do more work early in sets (why not, it works so well for the Panthers), and wouldn't be surprised to see that continue.
Maybe this year we might see even more Centres sneak up into a low 40's average?