NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

The one time I can see it being worthwhile to have significantly less cap spent, is if there is a season where there are so many great value players that are cheap, that you don't want to miss them all.

Then if the $300k player you would have otherwise missed, is scoring just as well as the $500k player you would have had to spend the extra cash, then you are better off with the cheaper player + cash.

Depending on TLT, I am currently missing a number of potential value EDGs in my team, like Piakura (as I believe that there is better value elsewhere). I have gone for guys like Cotter instead. There is the possibility that they both average 40 to start the season.

I feel like my current placeholder team is mostly defined by who i don't have, more than who I do have in my team.


Highly owned players that I am fading are:

Haas - 45%. Have gone for all of JDB, Harris and Hopgood instead. Seeing value in JDB, Harris, neither will play Origin. If we see big minutes from Hopgood in trials, based on comments on him playing 80 minutes at lock, he could easily be undervalued as well. Is also going to be a season keeper as one of the 2 best scoring EDGs, along with Fifita.

Piakura - 42%. Seeing at least as good value in a number of other EDG options, and always get frustrated at needing to upgrade 40 average EDGs early, when they have made maybe only $100k. Can keep the other EDGs averaging 45-50+ much longer than Piakura.

Campbell - 30%. If he doesn't line up round 1, he wont be in my team, with a bye in R2.

Grant - 24%. Hooker is a shit show again. Plan to have just the Eels 80 minute hooker initially and spend the cash elsewhere that should give better returns, like 3 gun MIDs. Lussick could get close to Grant for scoring, for $300k less. Trying to avoid Origin players where possible.

Willison - 25%. Hasn't score higher than 19 without a try, across 8 games. Plenty of EDG and MID mid range options that are likely to create more cash, and offer decent scoring that you want to play in your 17. Hard to find minutes in a team that has Haas, Carrigan and other guys trying to cement minutes around them - Kobe, Baker, Jensen, all ahead of him for minutes. Probably gets the flip side of Haas minutes, which isn't much, assuming he makes the team ahead of any of these guys.

Wong - 23%. Would much rather see Crichton named to start. Significant risk that he gets 50 minutes a game, as he did last season, when there weren't injuries that caused him to stay on the field longer, as pointed out in a great post by someone here recently.

Walsh - 20%. Did his dash last season. Not a fantasy gun, and likely gets in the Origin 18 again this season.

Leniu - 20%. Has never played more than 44 minutes in 5 seasons. Would have played some big games, if he had the motor to, with players on Origin, injuries during games etc. Has never stepped up.

Mam - 18%. Had an amazing grand final, should have won the game for Broncos. Not consistent enough, is like Cody Walker lite.

Ponga - 18%. Has been in some of my team drafts, but hard to select ahead of Papy, Campbell and lots of cheap WFBs. Another likely Origin player and always a head knock risk.

Hynes - 17%. Going Cleary. Next to Trindall, likely drops off this season. New NSW coach may have him in his plans. Would rather have the value of Fog as 2nd half. Plenty of other value options available as back up - Schuster, Weekes, Flanagan, Galvin / Fainu. Cleary and Hynes is overkill in the position, with all the value available.

HTF - 17%. I don't mind the pick, could easily go on a run again to start this season, with an easy early draw (Cowboys, Dragons, bye, Titans, Tigers), and a refreshed team under the master coach and some decent signings. A settled spine with SOS and JMK will help a lot too. Finding some better options though.

Brandon - 17%. Would take an 80 minute Eels HOK over him every time.

Anyone sniffing around Smithies for round 1? Obviously there's the risk that he drops to the bench once the Horse returns but I feel like he's a decent chance of retaining a starting spot regardless. Papali'i actually moved to the bench for his last two games with Guler starting. Could we see a front row of Horsburgh and Tapine with Papa coming off the bench I wonder? Young and Whitehead weren't too hot defensively last year either, 2nd and 3rd respectively for missed tackles amongst backrowers.  

You might say 'wait and see' but what if he drops a couple 60+ scores and puts himself out of your price range? Food for thought.

Haas - Agree, am going Murray myself as an expensive VC.
Piakura - I don't think he will be that great, but pointless to fade, will be starting with.
Campbell - If he's starting round 1, take and be thankful.
Grant - Take or leave. I prefer Cheese/Lussick combo.
Willison - Not really relevant IMO.
Wong - Don't have high hopes and prefer Gus also. Easy to take if starting but probably this year's Garner.
Walsh/Mam - Nah
Leniu - Better options/trap
Ponga - Love it, but wont go there myself.
Cheese - Am warming and will currently give it another crack. Roosters should improve this year and I think he will be a benefactor
HTF - Decent option for CTR

Alfie wrote:Anyone sniffing around Smithies for round 1? Obviously there's the risk that he drops to the bench once the Horse returns but I feel like he's a decent chance of retaining a starting spot regardless. Papali'i actually moved to the bench for his last two games with Guler starting. Could we see a front row of Horsburgh and Tapine with Papa coming off the bench I wonder? Young and Whitehead weren't too hot defensively last year either, 2nd and 3rd respectively for missed tackles amongst backrowers.  

You might say 'wait and see' but what if he drops a couple 60+ scores and puts himself out of your price range. Food for thought.

Plenty of good MID/EDG options to not even bother giving extra thought TBH

mattnz wrote:I feel like my current placeholder team is mostly defined by who i don't have, more than who I do have in my team.


Highly owned players that I am fading are:

Haas - 45%. Have gone for all of JDB, Harris and Hopgood instead. Seeing value in JDB, Harris, neither will play Origin. If we see big minutes from Hopgood in trials, based on comments on him playing 80 minutes at lock, he could easily be undervalued as well. Is also going to be a season keeper as one of the 2 best scoring EDGs, along with Fifita.

Piakura - 42%. Seeing at least as good value in a number of other EDG options, and always get frustrated at needing to upgrade 40 average EDGs early, when they have made maybe only $100k. Can keep the other EDGs averaging 45-50+ much longer than Piakura.

Campbell - 30%. If he doesn't line up round 1, he wont be in my team, with a bye in R2.

Grant - 24%. Hooker is a shit show again. Plan to have just the Eels 80 minute hooker initially and spend the cash elsewhere that should give better returns, like 3 gun MIDs. Lussick could get close to Grant for scoring, for $300k less. Trying to avoid Origin players where possible.

Willison - 25%. Hasn't score higher than 19 without a try, across 8 games. Plenty of EDG and MID mid range options that are likely to create more cash, and offer decent scoring that you want to play in your 17. Hard to find minutes in a team that has Haas, Carrigan and other guys trying to cement minutes around them - Kobe, Baker, Jensen, all ahead of him for minutes. Probably gets the flip side of Haas minutes, which isn't much, assuming he makes the team ahead of any of these guys.

Wong - 23%. Would much rather see Crichton named to start. Significant risk that he gets 50 minutes a game, as he did last season, when there weren't injuries that caused him to stay on the field longer, as pointed out in a great post by someone here recently.

Walsh - 20%. Did his dash last season. Not a fantasy gun, and likely gets in the Origin 18 again this season.

Leniu - 20%. Has never played more than 44 minutes in 5 seasons. Would have played some big games, if he had the motor to, with players on Origin, injuries during games etc. Has never stepped up.

Mam - 18%. Had an amazing grand final, should have won the game for Broncos. Not consistent enough, is like Cody Walker lite.

Ponga - 18%. Has been in some of my team drafts, but hard to select ahead of Papy, Campbell and lots of cheap WFBs. Another likely Origin player and always a head knock risk.

Hynes - 17%. Going Cleary. Next to Trindall, likely drops off this season. New NSW coach may have him in his plans. Would rather have the value of Fog as 2nd half. Plenty of other value options available as back up - Schuster, Weekes, Flanagan, Galvin / Fainu. Cleary and Hynes is overkill in the position, with all the value available.

HTF - 17%. I don't mind the pick, could easily go on a run again to start this season, with an easy early draw (Cowboys, Dragons, bye, Titans, Tigers), and a refreshed team under the master coach and some decent signings. A settled spine with SOS and JMK will help a lot too. Finding some better options though.

Brandon - 17%. Would take an 80 minute Eels HOK over him every time.

Solid analysis here, definitely trying to avoid Origin players myself. I would not recommend running just Lussick though. What if he plays 80 week 1 and Hands joins the team round 2? Might seem unlikely but you'd have to move heaven and earth to get a worthwhile hooker in.

Alfie wrote:

Solid analysis here, definitely trying to avoid Origin players myself. I would not recommend running just Lussick though. What if he plays 80 week 1 and Hands joins the team round 2? Might seem unlikely but you'd have to move heaven and earth to get a worthwhile hooker in.

Sounds like Levi is likely to be starting HOK at Raiders. Woolford recently asked for a transfer to Dragons, which was declined, and I don't see Starling having a different role.

Underpriced at $286k, his last 3 seasons as starting HOK he averaged 55, 35 and 37. He is likely to be my backup HOK.

Lemmy KGB wrote:

Plenty of good MID/EDG options to not even bother giving extra thought TBH

Not as many value MID options imo. Should have DPP MID/EDG come round 1.

mattnz wrote:

Sounds like Levi is likely to be starting HOK at Raiders. Woolford recently asked for a transfer to Dragons, which was declined, and I don't see Starling having a different role.

Underpriced at $286k, his last 3 seasons as starting HOK he averaged 55, 35 and 37. He is likely to be my backup HOK.

I didn't realise he was so cheap Shoe-in if he gets the nod. Throwing that 55 in there from 2 games in 2021 is cheeky even for you.

mattnz wrote:I feel like my current placeholder team is mostly defined by who i don't have, more than who I do have in my team.


Highly owned players that I am fading are:

Haas - 45%. Have gone for all of JDB, Harris and Hopgood instead. Seeing value in JDB, Harris, neither will play Origin. If we see big minutes from Hopgood in trials, based on comments on him playing 80 minutes at lock, he could easily be undervalued as well. Is also going to be a season keeper as one of the 2 best scoring EDGs, along with Fifita.

Piakura - 42%. Seeing at least as good value in a number of other EDG options, and always get frustrated at needing to upgrade 40 average EDGs early, when they have made maybe only $100k. Can keep the other EDGs averaging 45-50+ much longer than Piakura.

Campbell - 30%. If he doesn't line up round 1, he wont be in my team, with a bye in R2.

Grant - 24%. Hooker is a shit show again. Plan to have just the Eels 80 minute hooker initially and spend the cash elsewhere that should give better returns, like 3 gun MIDs. Lussick could get close to Grant for scoring, for $300k less. Trying to avoid Origin players where possible.

Willison - 25%. Hasn't score higher than 19 without a try, across 8 games. Plenty of EDG and MID mid range options that are likely to create more cash, and offer decent scoring that you want to play in your 17. Hard to find minutes in a team that has Haas, Carrigan and other guys trying to cement minutes around them - Kobe, Baker, Jensen, all ahead of him for minutes. Probably gets the flip side of Haas minutes, which isn't much, assuming he makes the team ahead of any of these guys.

Wong - 23%. Would much rather see Crichton named to start. Significant risk that he gets 50 minutes a game, as he did last season, when there weren't injuries that caused him to stay on the field longer, as pointed out in a great post by someone here recently.

Walsh - 20%. Did his dash last season. Not a fantasy gun, and likely gets in the Origin 18 again this season.

Leniu - 20%. Has never played more than 44 minutes in 5 seasons. Would have played some big games, if he had the motor to, with players on Origin, injuries during games etc. Has never stepped up.

Mam - 18%. Had an amazing grand final, should have won the game for Broncos. Not consistent enough, is like Cody Walker lite.

Ponga - 18%. Has been in some of my team drafts, but hard to select ahead of Papy, Campbell and lots of cheap WFBs. Another likely Origin player and always a head knock risk.

Hynes - 17%. Going Cleary. Next to Trindall, likely drops off this season. New NSW coach may have him in his plans. Would rather have the value of Fog as 2nd half. Plenty of other value options available as back up - Schuster, Weekes, Flanagan, Galvin / Fainu. Cleary and Hynes is overkill in the position, with all the value available.

HTF - 17%. I don't mind the pick, could easily go on a run again to start this season, with an easy early draw (Cowboys, Dragons, bye, Titans, Tigers), and a refreshed team under the master coach and some decent signings. A settled spine with SOS and JMK will help a lot too. Finding some better options though.

Brandon - 17%. Would take an 80 minute Eels HOK over him every time.

Only one here who’s not worth fading is Piakura. Literally free money

Alfie wrote:

Not as many value MID options imo. Should have DPP MID/EDG come round 1.

Curran, Baker, Tatola, Knight, RFM (maybe), Cheese, Cotter, all have better prospects IMO

Lemmy KGB wrote:

Curran, Baker, Tatola, Knight, RFM (maybe), Cheese, Cotter, all have better prospects IMO

Add Hughes and possibly Henry to the list.

mattnz wrote:

Add Hughes and possibly Henry to the list.

Yeah, but not people I'll be looking to start in the 17 off the bat.

Shady2K wrote:

Only one here who’s not worth fading is Piakura. Literally free money

Averages 40 in NRL and Cup.

Would you pick him ahead of RFM, Curran, Crichton / Wong, and Schuster? I am also planning to get Fifita early if possible. Piakura is the least attractive of these options.

He is the guy that just scored a 28 in round 8, that you look at and go, he is now $480k and I need to trade out someone to get in the gun that is a must have, I don't really want to play him in my playing 17 and he is taking too much cash to hold him in reserves. We find ourselves in these situations every season, and they are the first booted out the door, so you never get the full value out of their theoretical upside potential.

Lets look at it another way. If you could have Mariner at $450k to cover the awkward CTR spot, with just as much upside potential as Piakura, instead of a Talau or similar, likely a 15 point upgrade, or you could have Piakura, which would you choose?

Lemmy KGB wrote:
Wong - Don't have high hopes and prefer Gus also. Easy to take if starting but probably this year's Garner.

Wash your mouth out Wong is twice the player Garner is. Best comparison is actually a team mate Egan Butcher. Lots of competition for the spots and despite talent could easily find himself on the bench after a couple of average performances

Snatchpato wrote:The beauty of being a Roosters fan is that I can comfortably start the season without Teddy, and if he fucking dominates from the get go be at peace because he's killing it for my team. I'm assuming others feel similar about Ponga, Latrell etc

Lomax

I think there’s a difference between Origin players like Haas/Grant with good bye schedules vs ones with bye schedules like Murray/Teddy that you’re probably forced to sell over Origin. It was one of the things that screwed me last year with fringe players making Origin who all had terrible bye schedules after making Origin (Frizell, Robson, Moses, Walsh, Horsburgh)

Teddy would miss 13, 14, 16, 19. Murray would miss 13, 16, 17, 19

Haas and Grant have 2 byes on the major byes so might get rested outside of that but no forced miss due to bye.

mattnz wrote:

Averages 40 in NRL and Cup.

Would you pick him ahead of RFM, Curran, Crichton / Wong, and Schuster? I am also planning to get Fifita early if possible. Piakura is the least attractive of these options.

He is the guy that just scored a 28 in round 8, that you look at and go, he is now $480k and I need to trade out someone to get in the gun that is a must have, I don't really want to play him in my playing 17 and he is taking too much cash to hold him in reserves. We find ourselves in these situations every season, and they are the first booted out the door, so you never get the full value out of their theoretical upside potential.

Lets look at it another way. If you could have Mariner at $450k to cover the awkward CTR spot, with just as much upside potential as Piakura, instead of a Talau or similar, likely  a 15 point upgrade, or you could have Piakura, which would you choose?

I’d choose Piakura because Kevin Walters has said it’ll be Oates and Arthars to start the season

Looking at Matt’s post is more research than I’ve done this season. Good post thanks.

So obviously haven’t looked at stuff properly but Ponga definitely seems like value. I know people get wary about starting the season with guns at outside back positions, but he’s very underpriced. Hynes I was keen because Cleary + Hynes are so far ahead but maybe Trindall nerfs him a bit and of course if there value in the halves elsewhere he might have to go. Haas can be easily faded IMO. Even if he is the best MID, so many gun MIDs that’ll only be 1-5 pts per week behind him. Better to try and grab the one you think is undervalued.

The others also like clear no value picks, traps, or vert TLT dependent. I must admit Campbell I’m just adverse to because he seems so overrated, but after swerving Miller last year I should probably learn my lesson and grab the bad FB but good fantasy WFB option.

Lemmy KGB wrote:

Curran, Baker, Tatola, Knight, RFM (maybe), Cheese, Cotter, all have better prospects IMO

Curran - for sure
Baker - likely has to start and play over 40mins to be relevant, seems kinda unlikely.
Knight - probably starts and hits mid 30s in 40 I reckon. If he could somehow return to 2020 form where he essentially averaged 40 in 40 with new scoring added, he'd be great, but he's been on and off the park too often for me. Kurt Mann will also likely eat a lot more minutes than any of the benchwarmers the Bulldogs have persisted with the last few years.
RFM - as you say, a bit of a maybe. I think he'll be more of a role player off the bench.
Cheese - scored a bucket of tries in 2021, a year I think most people are being very optimistic to think he can replicate. 37 and 39 average last 2 years, 43 in 2020.
Cotter - a big maybe as well; averaged 48 before Origin, which is better but not great. 10 scores of 40 or less as well - has never shown enough consistency at club level for me (fantasy-wise of course). He's similar to Radley, top shelf but doesn't quite translate.

Smithies' role certainly isn't as secure as some of these boys but unlike them and even a lot of the value EDG options, a healthy role could make him a season keeper.

Big IF of course. Probably dreamin.