NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

robelgordo wrote:Looking at Matt’s post is more research than I’ve done this season. Good post thanks.

So obviously haven’t looked at stuff properly but Ponga definitely seems like value. I know people get wary about starting the season with guns at outside back positions, but he’s very underpriced. Hynes I was keen because Cleary + Hynes are so far ahead but maybe Trindall nerfs him a bit and of course if there value in the halves elsewhere he might have to go. Haas can be easily faded IMO. Even if he is the best MID, so many gun MIDs that’ll only be 1-5 pts per week behind him. Better to try and grab the one you think is undervalued.

The others also like clear no value picks, traps, or vert TLT dependent. I must admit Campbell I’m just adverse to because he seems so overrated, but after swerving Miller last year I should probably learn my lesson and grab the bad FB but good fantasy WFB option.

robelgordo wrote:Looking at Matt’s post is more research than I’ve done this season. Good post thanks.

So obviously haven’t looked at stuff properly but Ponga definitely seems like value. I know people get wary about starting the season with guns at outside back positions, but he’s very underpriced. Hynes I was keen because Cleary + Hynes are so far ahead but maybe Trindall nerfs him a bit and of course if there value in the halves elsewhere he might have to go. Haas can be easily faded IMO. Even if he is the best MID, so many gun MIDs that’ll only be 1-5 pts per week behind him. Better to try and grab the one you think is undervalued.

The others also like clear no value picks, traps, or vert TLT dependent. I must admit Campbell I’m just adverse to because he seems so overrated, but after swerving Miller last year I should probably learn my lesson and grab the bad FB but good fantasy WFB option.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Wash your mouth out Wong is twice the player Garner is. Best comparison is actually a team mate Egan Butcher. Lots of competition for the spots and despite talent could easily find himself on the bench after a couple of average performances

Alfie wrote:

Hynes actually kicked further with Trindall next to him I was surprised to read (thanks MTB). Averaged 3 points less but that was largely thanks to the 34 he scored in the 28-0 shutout courtesy of the Panthers.

Alfie wrote:

Hynes actually kicked further with Trindall next to him I was surprised to read (thanks MTB). Averaged 3 points less but that was largely thanks to the 34 he scored in the 28-0 shutout courtesy of the Panthers.

Camo123 wrote:

If you search Footystats on Hynes with Trindall it includes games where Trindall was on bench or 18th man and not half partner (more accurate search is Hynes with/without Moylan)

ynot wrote:
- Filled out every teams top 17 based on likely team list articles
- Calculated all players historical PPM and average minutes at that position, if they have no stats I use the positions average.
- Make sure all the teams minutes are complete by bumping players minutes up or down
- Generate the projected points which is PPM * Projected Minutes
- Fix up the projections to make them lean more towards more recent seasons or bump things down a bit if they don't make sense

Kind of a system, with a bit of guess work!

mattnz wrote:

Averages 40 in NRL and Cup.

Would you pick him ahead of RFM, Curran, Crichton / Wong, and Schuster? I am also planning to get Fifita early if possible. Piakura is the least attractive of these options.

He is the guy that just scored a 28 in round 8, that you look at and go, he is now $480k and I need to trade out someone to get in the gun that is a must have, I don't really want to play him in my playing 17 and he is taking too much cash to hold him in reserves. We find ourselves in these situations every season, and they are the first booted out the door, so you never get the full value out of their theoretical upside potential.

Lets look at it another way. If you could have Mariner at $450k to cover the awkward CTR spot, with just as much upside potential as Piakura, instead of a Talau or similar, likely  a 15 point upgrade, or you could have Piakura, which would you choose?

Camo123 wrote:I think there’s a difference between Origin players like Haas/Grant with good bye schedules vs ones with bye schedules like Murray/Teddy that you’re probably forced to sell over Origin. It was one of the things that screwed me last year with fringe players making Origin who all had terrible bye schedules after making Origin (Frizell, Robson, Moses, Walsh, Horsburgh)

Teddy would miss 13, 14, 16, 19. Murray would miss 13, 16, 17, 19

Haas and Grant have 2 byes on the major byes so might get rested outside of that but no forced miss due to bye.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

who plays FB Origin for QLD Walsh or
Ponga?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

who plays FB Origin for QLD Walsh or
Ponga?

the_great_wobbler wrote:

What are your thoughts on centres this year?

the_great_wobbler wrote:

What are your thoughts on centres this year?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

who plays FB Origin for QLD Walsh or
Ponga?

robelgordo wrote:Shameless self-plug - I wrote this reflecting on 2023 season after everyone left. Not too long, hopefully some ok insights/food for thought. Might remind you about some of your own process and decisions to repeat or avoid.

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2335-2023-season-retro-or-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-overachieved-to-82nd

It also shows you can start bad, miss cows, waste trades on bye shenanigans and still hit the magical 15m and make the top 100.

mattnz wrote:

I expect both to be in the squad. Can't leave out Ponga on form. Walsh on the bench for impact, or at least makes the 18.