NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

Alfie wrote:

He’d likely be leaving 2 men on the bench though, we went over this with Dolphin Conspiracies I think. Assuming your backrowers play 80, which BA usually sticks with and Matto playing 45-50, that leaves like 20-30 minutes for the remaining 3 bench occupants.

Won't be the first time we have seen a 80 minute HOK and near 80 minute lock.

Penrith 2022
Warriors 2023
Manly 2018
Souths 2022

Typically at least one EDG is getting spelled, if not both.

mattnz wrote:

Won't be the first time we have seen a 80 minute HOK and near 80 minute lock.

Penrith 2022
Warriors 2023
Manly 2018
Souths 2022

Typically at least one EDG is getting spelled, if not both.

Murray averaged 68 mins in 2022 (excluding 1 min injury) . What are you going on about

Kris has said Schiller and Hopoate are the frontrunners for R1 CTR spot while he’s suspended

Strange 5/8 prayer circle

mattnz wrote:

Arthur saying that Hopgood has developed his game last season and can now play 80 minutes without losing focus.

That really remains to be seen...
From round 14 to the end of the season Hopgood played one game at Lock where he played more than 67 minutes... one game, and that was in Round 22 for 75 minutes. The following two games at Lock BA chose to only play him for 58 and 60 minutes - which seems strange IF Hopgood by that point was more capable of maintaining a high consistency in bigger minutes...

Maybe R25 he got a lighter start playing edge for 20 minutes before Joffa went off and Matterson came on (I don't recall), but even then it's managed middle minutes, and the next game BA chose to start Hopgood from the bench


So whatever Hopgood's improvements are (and he probably has improved), they certainly haven't been proven in an 80-minute NRL match

I like a good BA story, but at this time there's no evidence to support that story
Certainly something to keep an eye on, but I wouldn't put my house on it... (yet)

What players do we know of that are yet to be added to the system, ie Faalogo, Nathan Brown, etc?
I’ve got a draft kicking off this afternoon and this info may be of benefit.
Cheers for any answers as I’m a bit unprepared.

mattnz wrote:

Won't be the first time we have seen a 80 minute HOK and near 80 minute lock.

Penrith 2022
Warriors 2023
Manly 2018
Souths 2022

Typically at least one EDG is getting spelled, if not both.

Warriors '23 Harris averaged 68 minutes (that is just 2 minutes more than Hopgood last year)
Panthers '22 Koroisau averaged 70 minutes
Souths '22 Murray averaged 69 minutes

The reason I point this out is that you're surely expecting Hopgood to get more than say an 3 extra minutes to make him a value pick - which is what being "near 80" seems to mean in these instances?

I think most people probably wouldn't consider a Hopgood + Lussick combo to be fairly equivalent to Murray + Cook, Yeo + Koroisau or probably even Harris + Egan for that matter

Maybe Lussick gets big minutes, maybe Hopgood goes into Yeo territory, both happening seems less likely than neither happening imho

Mulvy wrote:

An even better example for Brailey than McCullough, is Brailey himself in his first year back from ACL in 2021.

The memories of 2021 Brailey gives me warm fuzzies... how good would that be to repeat!

easytiger wrote:

Warriors '23 Harris averaged 68 minutes (that is just 2 minutes more than Hopgood last year)
Panthers '22 Koroisau averaged 70 minutes
Souths '22 Murray averaged 69 minutes

The reason I point this out is that you're surely expecting Hopgood to get more than say an 3 extra minutes to make him a value pick - which is what being "near 80" seems to mean in these instances?

I think most people probably wouldn't consider a Hopgood + Lussick combo to be fairly equivalent to Murray + Cook, Yeo + Koroisau or probably even Harris + Egan for that matter

Maybe Lussick gets big minutes, maybe Hopgood goes into Yeo territory, both happening seems less likely than neither happening imho

Harris only had reduced minutes due to injury. Was playing 80 every week before then.

Murray's minutes were managed over Origin, but was playing 70-80 minutes most of the time outside of then.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Hopgood playing 80 sounds a lot like what fantasy coaches want to happen rather than what will happen

especially in the early rounds where they are building up match fitness he was lucky in 2023 the eels kept on getting injuries in the pack leaving him to play big mins. with everyone fit & at a full strength pack imo hopgood will not play 80 especially with matterson on the bench.

mattnz wrote:

Harris only had reduced minutes due to injury. Was playing 80 every for 3 weeks before then.

Murray's minutes were managed over Origin, but was playing 70-80 minutes most of the time outside of then.

But then you also say that BA is considering that Hopgood is very much in the Origin frame.

At the end of the day it's far more likely that there are reasons why Mid X doesn't end up playing their upper limit of minutes each week then there are cases where Mid X plays max minutes every week for months on end without any reason to ever have reduced minutes...

It's all hypothetical anyway, if you want to believe Hopgood will play 80 every week for the whole season (as he would certainly be a season keeper in that instance) then have at it! - I sincerely hope it proves an inspired call

easytiger wrote:

But then you also say that BA is considering that Hopgood is very much in the Origin frame.

At the end of the day it's far more likely that there are reasons why Mid X doesn't end up playing their upper limit of minutes each week then there are cases where Mid X plays max minutes every week for months on end without any reason to ever have reduced minutes...

It's all hypothetical anyway,  if you want to believe Hopgood will play 80 every week for the whole season (as he would certainly be a season keeper in that instance) then have at it! - I sincerely hope it proves an inspired call

No one said 80 every week, Jurbo and Yeo don't get that. I have priced him on getting 70+ minutes most weeks (73 average in those minutes).

For a while ive been thinking id start with Hopgood, because he seems like a guy who will jump out of the blocks early rounds again, and then just taper off as the season wears in. The hot start is just gut feel.

That is all though. No idea what a squad will look like yet

mattnz wrote:

Brailey is captain and an 80 minute hooker.

Is he still an 80 minute hooker? He's played 13 games in two years. That means not much match fitness at all. Maybe he becomes an 80 minute hooker again as the season progresses, but with the way Crossland was at 9 I can see him taking minutes to start off with (and also a stint at lock).

easytiger wrote:

The memories of 2021 Brailey gives me warm fuzzies... how good would that be to repeat!

Yeah the first 10 rounds haha. I held on to him wayyy too long.

Mulvy wrote:

An even better example for Brailey than McCullough, is Brailey himself in his first year back from ACL in 2021.

Brailey has had an Achilles and another ACL injury since then though

Egan and Harris only played 80 in the same game once in round 26, rocco berry and metcalf were injured around the halfway mark. I think with Capewell coming over who isn’t worth an interchange like Niukore was, Tohu likely won’t play 80. Plenty of leadership experience left over when Harris goes off with RTS, Johnson and Capewell

Alfie wrote:Egan and Harris only played 80 in the same game once in round 26, rocco berry and metcalf were injured around the halfway mark. I think with Capewell coming over who isn’t worth an interchange like Niukore was, Tohu likely won’t play 80. Plenty of leadership experience left over when Harris goes off with RTS, Johnson and Capewell

Capey criminally underrated for what he can bring to that warriors pack. Tightening up defensive structures, even at training, can only be a good thing for the wahs.

Camo123 wrote:

Brailey has had an Achilles and another ACL injury since then though

I don't think it affects his scoring all that much though. It just means that he's injury prone and at a much higher risk of being a trade out at some point as a result. If he stays fit though, I think he scores well despite coming back from injury.

Kids, maybe Brad Arthur uses "80 minutes" as a way of saying "big minutes". He's not a fantasy coach.

rhinoceroo wrote:Kids, maybe Brad Arthur uses "80 minutes" as a way of saying "big minutes". He's not a fantasy coach.

I've heard he won't use his bench at all this year. Even if a player goes down. It's 80 minutes or nothing at all. Genius stuff by BA.