NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

Mulvy wrote:

I don't think it affects his scoring all that much though. It just means that he's injury prone and at a much higher risk of being a trade out at some point as a result. If he stays fit though, I think he scores well despite coming back from injury.

If he’s playing 80mins he’s probs gonna avg 50-52 if he stays fit. If he’s playing 65mins that’s gonna come back to low to mid 40’s I think and that’s not much value.

If he’s being eased back in maybe he loses a bit more cash then picks up his mins 4-6 weeks in then is a buy!

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:Tatola is a head down arse up get the job done type player for what its worth have him myself purely for his price, as a Bunny supporter I really hope Shaquai can force his way into the 17, he has impressed me with every opportunity he has been given and has some ball skills, minutes are a concern.

Hey mate I can tell you Moale is currently ahead of Shaq. Moale has been one of our most impressive forwards at training and is starting to grow into his body more, he’s still young at 20/21 with upside. I do like Shaq too though. Anyway I don’t think either Moale or Shaq get more than 20-25mins.

Re Tatola not sure there is 10 points value but I see 6-9 points value. Should get somewhere between 45-48mins a game I think. If Arrow was prop though then I go colder on Tatola. If Keppie partners Tatola at prop I think Keppie comes off first change. JD in front of the group praised Tatola, Tom and Keaon as the 3 that came back to training in the best shape they fucking every have for what it’s worth.

@Mulvy thoughts on Cotter please? It’s hard to split he And Tatola I can only likely take 1 of them. Again I see Cotter with also having 6-9 points value.

Camo123 wrote:

A lot of the gun MIDs have ?

Haas (priced 64):
Pros: No byes until Origin and good bye schedule throughout means you could keep whole season, Flegler leaving might mean extra mins, massive ceiling
Cons: Not really any value, may run less away from middle for easy TBs and offloads

I don't really get the argument that Flegler not being there will negatively effect Haas's scoring with fewer wide runs. For one thing, it's not like he doesn't break tackles running up the middle too, and for another his wide runs are usually on the back of broken play or second/third phase, so no reason to suppose those change anyway.

Don't think there's much debate that Haas will be the highest scoring MID. Question isn't whether it's better to have a MID "subgun" like Hopgood but whether it's better to go cheaper in the MIDs and have an extra gun half.

But Haas does tend to start the season on fire, before dipping around origin. It'll be a difficult watch if he matches his previous first six games averages. The only one where he's at his starting price is his debut season.

2023: 68
2022: 70
2021: 66
2020: 72
2019: 64

Rabbits21 wrote:
I’m just gonna come out and say it I could be wrong I’ve never had you on block but think you might have me on block guess I will know soon enough

Who is this muppet who I have never seen before who thinks I have him on block? Probably a Souffs supporter. Figures.

Rabbits21 wrote:
If he’s playing 80mins he’s probs gonna avg 50-52 if he stays fit. If he’s playing 65mins that’s gonna come back to low to mid 40’s I think and that’s not much value.

If he’s being eased back in maybe he loses a bit more cash then picks up his mins 4-6 weeks in then is a buy!

Hi Rabbits,

I don't think he loses value, I think he does what you say and scores low 40's for a couple of weeks holding his value, before becoming 80 minutes again and becoming value. It's a gamble if/when you buy him.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Hey mate I can tell you Moale is currently ahead of Shaq. Moale has been one of our most impressive forwards at training and is starting to grow into his body more, he’s still young at 20/21 with upside. I do like Shaq too though. Anyway I don’t think either Moale or Shaq get more than 20-25mins.

Re Tatola not sure there is 10 points value but I see 6-9 points value. Should get somewhere between 45-48mins a game I think. If Arrow was prop though then I go colder on Tatola. If Keppie partners Tatola at prop I think Keppie comes off first change. JD in front of the group praised Tatola, Tom and Keaon as the 3 that came back to training in the best shape they fucking every have for what it’s worth.

@Mulvy thoughts on Cotter please? It’s hard to split he And Tatola I can only likely take 1 of them. Again I see Cotter with also having 6-9 points value.

I don't see much value in Cotter to be honest. I'm more interested in Tatola. Cotter is a gun player, but like Radley his stats are all over the place, his positions are all over the place. Probably a couple of points unders. I'm more looking at Lolo as a bye guy in the lead up to origin, maybe. Where is Cotter's 6-9 points coming from?

Mulvy wrote:

I don't see much value in Cotter to be honest. I'm more interested in Tatola. Cotter is a gun player, but like Radley his stats are all over the place, his positions are all over the place. Probably a couple of points unders. I'm more looking at Lolo as a bye guy in the lead up to origin, maybe. Where is Cotter's 6-9 points coming from?

Cotter ppm was higher the year prior. Also last year he avg 49 in 58mins the first 10 rounds I think it was. Then his mins dropped after that through origin. He also made less tackles last year a game, missed more tackles and less tackle busts than 2022. If he can get some of that back he could have that value.

mattnz wrote:

Why do you think Murray did so badly last season? He averaged 1 more minute than in 2022.

He had higher base in 2023 than 2022

The biggest drops were:
0.4 penalties to 1.1 penalties a game (-1.4 average)
0.3 try assists to 0.1 try assists a game (-1 average)
1.6 offloads to hand to 0.7 offloads to hand (-3.6 average)

The big one is offloads and it’s hard to tell whether it’s due to team performance or tactical by coach because Souths were equal bottom for offloads last year (but 7th in 2022 also under Demetriou so it could be performance related)

Penalties definitely look like improvement area given rest of career is half of 2023

mattnz wrote:As we get close to round 1 and the first TLT is released, I can see lots of players from Souths, Manly, Roosters and Broncos being over-represented in teams, just because they are named first, to give some certainty.

This could lead to some trouble when the rest of the teams are named. If you tied up all your cap in Vegas players then the players you want don't get named it could mean a scramble to a bunch of players noone wants

Rabbits21 wrote:
I think Suaali will play Tupou might miss out.

I think Billy Smith starts the year in reserve grade.
Tupou is the all time club leader for tries and hasn't dropped off. Works well coming out of trouble
Manu is the x-factor and a lock to hold his spot
Dom Young is the marquee signing for the long term and will be looking to lock the spot down long term

That leaves Smith vs Suaali'i where I think Suaali'i's upside gets him the spot

Can someone bet me money that Billy Smith will start 2024 over Suaali.

my tv broke wrote:Can someone bet me money that Billy Smith will start 2024 over Suaali.

Wait, which side are you taking on that one?

Alfie wrote:

Wait, which side are you taking on that one?

Suaali NRL

I guess the bet would actually be Suaali is playing NRL vs Suaali is playing ressies.

Haas is good at fantasy scoring. The one season I didn't start with him in the last five (2022) I had my worst finish in 12 years.

I'll probably be under thinking it and starting with Haas again.

Mahoney anyone? Probably bending the narrative here a tad but looking at last year, he averaged 50 when playing 80 if you exclude his last two scores of 24 and 15 (assume he was burnt out or fed up). Will the Dogs be slight improvers this year with Mahoney potentially the beneficiary? Dogs play the first two major bye rounds as well

Alfie wrote:Mahoney anyone? Probably bending the narrative here a tad but looking at last year, he averaged 50 when playing 80 if you exclude his last two scores of 24 and 15 (assume he was burnt out or fed up). Will the Dogs be slight improvers this year with Mahoney potentially the beneficiary? Dogs play the first two major bye rounds as well

I'd probably want to watch the Dogs not being a clusterfuck for a few games first

my tv broke wrote:

Suaali NRL

I guess the bet would actually be Suaali is playing NRL vs Suaali is playing ressies.

Definitely starts at centre for me. MattNZ takin that action?

Aardvark wrote:

I'd probably want to watch the Dogs not being a clusterfuck for a few games first

I assume you have Grant? Starting to think I might have to squeeze him in; not sure about these sub-gun options i.e. Robson, Brailey and BSmith

Alfie wrote:

I assume you have Grant? Starting to think I might have to squeeze him in; not sure about these sub-gun options i.e. Robson, Brailey and BSmith

I honestly haven't made a team yet so my imaginary team consists of Haas, Cleary and the cashies/underpriced middies that everyone else picks. I'll probably go with someone like Robson who has a good bye schedule, isn't coming back from a major injury and is in what should be a reasonable team.

My comment was mostly based on watching Mahoney get exposed by mediocre middle defence last year plus his tendency to try to be "Captain Everything' when he gets frustrated

Mahoney too much of a missed tackle collector for me to go down that route again.

If he's decided to swap to the Damien Cook 'stand up and catch' technique then we can talk.