NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 3 - Half the height we want

Jele wrote:

Thanks @ynot , enjoying mucking around with your optimiser, including the lock function. Is there a way to exclude a player for injury/suspension/early bye (eg Campbell), other than just manually adjusting their projections downwards?

Not really, set their projection to 0/blank.

I'll have a think about it.

Just inverse lock in

https://www.bulldogs.com.au/news/2024/02/15/new-recruits-impressing-ciraldo/

If Jayden Campbell will be out until round 5, people will be interested in Kini, so here are his QRL stats last year, because they are quite good

The 6 in R18 came in just 21 minutes, the 9 in R3 came in 69 minutes.
The 71 in the preliminary final came in just 49 minutes (with 2 tries, and the Bears ended up winning 57-8 )

Round 2 bye is obviously a downer, but there is some clear upside if he can get a few games

Milchcow wrote:If Jayden Campbell will be out until round 5, people will be interested in Cini, so here are his QRL stats last year, because they are quite good

The 6 in R18 came in just 21 minutes, the 9 in R3 came in 69 minutes.
The 71 in the preliminary final came in just 49 minutes (with 2 tries, and the Bears ended up winning 57-

Round 2 bye is obviously a downer, but there is some clear upside if he can get a few games

Do you expect him to have similar attacking opportunities in the NRL for the lower mid-table Gold Coast Titans than he did in reserve grade with the ladder-leading grand finalist Burleigh Bears?

Milchcow wrote:If Jayden Campbell will be out until round 5, people will be interested in Cini, so here are his QRL stats last year, because they are quite good

The 6 in R18 came in just 21 minutes, the 9 in R3 came in 69 minutes.
The 71 in the preliminary final came in just 49 minutes (with 2 tries, and the Bears ended up winning 57-

Round 2 bye is obviously a downer, but there is some clear upside if he can get a few games

Fast start and he could be a straight swap for a returning Campbell

rhinoceroo wrote:
Do you expect him to have similar attacking opportunities in the NRL for the lower mid-table Gold Coast Titans than he did in reserve grade with the ladder-leading grand finalist Burleigh Bears?

For someone who is priced at an average of 20, I don't need miracles to provide value.

The bigger issue will be not getting enough games to make the money

Milchcow wrote:If Jayden Campbell will be out until round 5, people will be interested in Cini, so here are his QRL stats last year, because they are quite good

The 6 in R18 came in just 21 minutes, the 9 in R3 came in 69 minutes.
The 71 in the preliminary final came in just 49 minutes (with 2 tries, and the Bears ended up winning 57-

Round 2 bye is obviously a downer, but there is some clear upside if he can get a few games

Them old school Milchy spreadsheets....mmmm goosebumps

Does this kid play a trial or two?

Mulvy wrote:
Does this kid play a trial or two?

He's not named this weekend, but the Titans named a team of nobodies (Joe Stimson is captain) so won't be able to read much into the game anyway

Milchcow wrote:If Jayden Campbell will be out until round 5, people will be interested in Cini, so here are his QRL stats last year, because they are quite good

The 6 in R18 came in just 21 minutes, the 9 in R3 came in 69 minutes.
The 71 in the preliminary final came in just 49 minutes (with 2 tries, and the Bears ended up winning 57-

Round 2 bye is obviously a downer, but there is some clear upside if he can get a few games

Obviously a severe case of delayed onset PTSD happening here. The sheer terror of owning Zac Cini in 2021 has finally caught up to you

At least I hope it's a case of PTSD. We wouldn't want it to be BSE

Cookie Monster wrote:


Obviously a severe case of delayed onset PTSD happening here. The sheer terror of owning Zac Cini in 2021 has finally caught up to you

At least I hope it's a case of PTSD. We wouldn't want it to be BSE  

Haha, I did see that.

Cini Meaney Mahoney Moe.

Cookie Monster wrote:

Obviously a severe case of delayed onset PTSD happening here. The sheer terror of owning Zac Cini in 2021 has finally caught up to you

At least I hope it's a case of PTSD. We wouldn't want it to be BSE  

I've edited my original post. Its everyone who quoted me that is wrong

Milchcow wrote:

For someone who is priced at an average of 20, I don't need miracles to provide value.

The bigger issue will be not getting enough games to make the money

Sure, but not sure reserve grade stats are useful especially for backs (load up on Blake Taafe if they are).

Of course, we all love data and it's all we've got but it rarely maps across that well, particularly from a dominant reserve grade side to a middling NRL one. If you think he'll average 30+ for five weeks simply by being on the field, then fill up

Meanwhile, I've just watched a YouTube highlights video of Kini and put him straight in my squad, at least until the next cheapie highlights video I watch.

Kini has played 2.5 games in the NRL at fullback

16 in 80 minutes (boo!)
19 in 40 minutes (good enough)
44 in 80 minutes (more than acceptable)

I am confident that at $279k, he represents value. But if he only gets 3-4 games, is that enough?
Would probably have to be at the upper end of scoring estimates to make enough money in that time.

I've heard talk about it being similar to a Trindall purchase (who I purchased last year). I think it's a lot different. Trindall didn't have a bye in the first five weeks for starters. Trindall was almost certainly going to do the goal kicking and the general play kicking, had pedigree, was alongside a non-dominant half. He was probably going to score 50+. The question was, for how many weeks? I was of the view, that even for two weeks he was worth it, because the points alone, and a little bit of cash, plus potential for more was worth it.

This other bloke has little NRL experience, plays for an arguably worse team, isn't the main playmaker or goal kicker or field kicker. Has a round two bye. That's two whole NRL weeks where he might touch some chicks ass or blow 0.052. Or get injured during training. Or the Titans hire the Panfer's physio and Campbell comes back early. A lot of uncertainty.

I reserve the right to pick him if he plays a trial, looks decent, and we get the slightest bit of clarity on Campbell time frame.

Yeah, it's certainly different to Trindall, who was (if you picked him) always going to be a scorer for you as well as a moneymaker for as long as he sticked around. Is there a benefit to playing Kini in your 17 ahead of eg. Stewart or Weekes if they also have starting roles?

I think I’ll take Kini they keep pushing back the Campbell time frame. Obviously I’ll wanna watch Kini next week. Even if Kini only gets up to 370-380k you can then swap him for Campbell. I’m likely to want a keeper centre so I might go Pap and 2 cheapies at WFB. If you want Kini I reckon it’s either round 1 or not at all.

rhinoceroo wrote:Yeah, it's certainly different to Trindall, who was (if you picked him) always going to be a scorer for you as well as a moneymaker for as long as he sticked around. Is there a benefit to playing Kini in your 17 ahead of eg. Stewart or Weekes if they also have starting roles?

You mean, you have all three of them but only one of them in your 17?

I think with two of those from the Raiders and one from the Titans, we're not talking about one team being so much better than the other one for it to matter so much. So it's down to the individual right? We've seen Weekes in first grade, and against Knights in Newcastle, I'd give that a swerve. I know nothing about Stewart, but I guess the same applies. I know match ups always seem to fuck me, but Kini against the Dragons....

Rabbits21 wrote:I think I’ll take Kini they keep pushing back the Campbell time frame. Obviously I’ll wanna watch Kini next week. Even if Kini only gets up to 370-380k you can then swap him for Campbell. I’m likely to want a keeper centre so I might go Pap and 2 cheapies at WFB. If you want Kini I reckon it’s either round 1 or not at all.

Idk, even if Kini gets a 50 in the first round (when he might not be in your 17 anyway) you can dodge the DNP in R2 and pick him up for around 300k before R3 *if* the Campbell prognosis has got worse and/or Kini looked good enough to keep the spot anyway. Undecided