NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 6 - The only time I make a thread this year

King Assassin wrote:If Eels do end up playing 2 Hookers, Thats a good sign for 80 min HopGOD, Alternatively a 4 forward bench or 3 with a Utility could be a sign for a 60 minute HopGOD. Any stats on Hopgood less then 65 minutes games?

Average of 48 last season when 40 < mins < 60

Has a handful of games between 60-65 mins, scores of 51, 49, 56, 70, 57

So average of approx 50-55 for games less than 65 mins.

All this Tupouniua vs Wong talk has me considering dropping Lane down to one of them. Any thoughts? I was super keen on Lane earlier, but I’ve forgotten the reasons I picked him

TheWeapon wrote:All this Tupouniua vs Wong talk has me considering dropping Lane down to one of them. Any thoughts? I was super keen on Lane earlier, but I’ve forgotten the reasons I picked him

Lane averages (edg >70mins):

2019: 43
2020: 49
2021: 50
2022: 53
2023: 40 (small sample, zero attacking stats)

priced at 41. Could do a lot worse if you expect him to get back to 2020-2022 form.

Rabbits21 wrote:Stu from Boom or Bust has an interesting approach running a very strong back 5 in Penis, RTS, Pap, Ponga and Kini with Tatola, Sitili and Cotter as mids, no gun mid.

Risky! To start the season your bread and butter are the big minute mids and dominant halves. RTS & Ponga rely on attacking stats and we saw with Teddy last season this doesn't alway happen to start the season.

Ponga and RTS will both be way cheaper at some stage of the season

How confident are people on Smithies getting DPP before TLT2? Currently got Tatola but I'd rather play Smithies. Risk is I drop Tatola and can't quite afford Cotter, then everyone below Tatola I either have or don't want.

kamikamicameleons wrote:How confident are people on Smithies getting DPP before TLT2? Currently got Tatola but I'd rather play Smithies. Risk is I drop Tatola and can't quite afford Cotter, then everyone below Tatola I either have or don't want.

Gets DPP if named at lock

kamikamicameleons wrote:How confident are people on Smithies getting DPP before TLT2? Currently got Tatola but I'd rather play Smithies. Risk is I drop Tatola and can't quite afford Cotter, then everyone below Tatola I either have or don't want.

Surely you have some sort of MID cover? If so, put them in Tatolas spot, then even if Smithies doesn't get DPP (he will if named at lock) you can drop Tatola for him as the bench is independent of position.

rhinoceroo wrote:

*Weakly raised hand*

Also, tinkering has seen the indestructible gunpod Damian Cook enter my team, which (with Cook, Haas, Sitili, Wong, Cheese, Piakura, Burbo and Cleary) would leave absolutely no wriggle room for next week. Determined to sabotage my season from day one this year.

Since I left my comment on your team tracker, I’ve somehow gained Kris and Rapana and shed Cook, and you’ve picked him up. We’ve swapped teams

Snatchpato wrote:
Surely you have some sort of MID cover? If so, put them in Tatolas spot, then even if Smithies doesn't get DPP (he will if named at lock) you can drop Tatola for him as the bench is independent of position.

My mid cover currently is Shoes and Mikaele. Just don't love the idea of starting either of them

Lot of players avoiding conventional wisdom and starting with guns at WFB and CTR

One last attempt from MS to talk you out of the roller coaster ride here is the top 5 priced from each position

Gagai 749k - Actually the most repeatable of the gun centres. Only scored 3 tries all year with scores ranging from 24 to 77. Price never dropped below starting price although did hit 720k midseason before being available for 650k a few rounds later. Might have just been a career year but seen in approximately 0 teams

Tago 678k - Scored a bunch of tries in a very good team. Was available for a 70k discount on his starting price with scores ranging 25 to 97

Herbie 646k - Similar to Gagai coming off a career year but also scored a bunch of tries in a good team. Could have picked him up for basically his starting price in round 8,9,10. Scores ranging between 35 and 64

Manu 639k - Could have been bought for 144k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 15 and 99.

Garrick 639k - Could be bought for a 150k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 19* and 104

Ponga 757k - Could be had for 130k discount on starting price (trust me I owned him). Scores ranged between 9 and 92

Latrell 747k - Could be had for 110k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 23 and 82

Marzhew 734k - Never got close to starting price after flying out of the gates. Great buy if you managed to pick him. Scores ranged between 30 and 87

Drinkwater 715k - Could be had for 170k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 10 and 101

Isaako 688k - Never got close to starting price after scoring 1 try per game average. Scores ranged between 27 and 77






So what was the point of this exercise? To show that there will be a multitude of gun backs available at cheaper prices at some point in the season unless you absolutely nail it (starting Marzhew, Isaako and Gagai who were on no one's radar to start the year). It is a much better strategy to pick one of them up when it's a lower percentage of your salary cap in rounds 5-10

Snatchpato wrote:
Surely you have some sort of MID cover? If so, put them in Tatolas spot, then even if Smithies doesn't get DPP (he will if named at lock) you can drop Tatola for him as the bench is independent of position.

Tatola will be locked out by next weeks team list

Camo123 wrote:

Tatola will be locked out by next weeks team list

Yep, my problem exactly. Want Tatola if Smithies doesn't get DPP, but obviously can't wait to see, so wondering how confident people are Smithies is named at Lock. Thinking I'll chuck Shoes in the spot for now and just figure it out next week. Would rather the potential upside of Smithies over what I may get from Tatola

Camo123 wrote:

Tatola will be locked out by next weeks team list

Ah yes very true

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Lot of players avoiding conventional wisdom and starting with guns at WFB and CTR

One last attempt from MS to talk you out of the roller coaster ride here is the top 5 priced from each position

Gagai 749k - Actually the most repeatable of the gun centres. Only scored 3 tries all year with scores ranging from 24 to 77. Price never dropped below starting price although did hit 720k midseason before being available for 650k a few rounds later. Might have just been a career year but seen in approximately 0 teams

Tago 678k - Scored a bunch of tries in a very good team. Was available for a 70k discount on his starting price with scores ranging 25 to 97

Herbie 646k - Similar to Gagai coming off a career year but also scored a bunch of tries in a good team. Could have picked him up for basically his starting price in round 8,9,10. Scores ranging between 35 and 64

Manu 639k - Could have been bought for 144k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 15 and 99.

Garrick 639k - Could be bought for a 150k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 19* and 104

Ponga 757k - Could be had for 130k discount on starting price (trust me I owned him). Scores ranged between 9 and 92

Latrell 747k - Could be had for 110k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 23 and 82

Marzhew 734k - Never got close to starting price after flying out of the gates. Great buy if you managed to pick him. Scores ranged between 30 and 87

Drinkwater 715k - Could be had for 170k discount on starting price. Scores ranged between 10 and 101

Isaako 688k - Never got close to starting price after scoring 1 try per game average. Scores ranged between 27 and 77






So what was the point of this exercise? To show that there will be a multitude of gun backs available at cheaper prices at some point in the season unless you absolutely nail it (starting Marzhew, Isaako and Gagai who were on no one's radar to start the year). It is a much better strategy to pick one of them up when it's a lower percentage of your salary cap in rounds 5-10

Wouldn’t have spent up (on Teddy who is priced below 50 to start season for the first time at Roosters) if Campbell was available but all the WFB cheapies either score shit, aren’t guaranteed to start R1 or have limited time span

Dunster/Kini - limited time span
Bradley/Weekes/Cotric - not guaranteed to start R1
Bostock/Arthars - scores are shit

Camo123 wrote:

Wouldn’t have spent up if Campbell was available but all the WFB cheapies either score shit, aren’t guaranteed to start R1 or have limited time span

Dunster/Kini - limited time span
Bradley/Weekes/Cotric - not guaranteed to start R1
Bostock/Arthars - scores are shit

My theory is that it's okay to take shit scores in WFB CTR as long as you make up for it with the saved cash elsewhere.

A nice example is Penisini and Murray vs Haas, Arthars and 150k to upgrade elsewhere. The extra cash saved could turn someone like Flanagan into a Luki/Curran/Flegler who should comfortably outscore.

It's not just looking in isolation and saying "my centres scored like shit this week" it's looking at the entire team scoring/cash gen while the "guns" drop cash

King Assassin wrote:If Eels do end up playing 2 Hookers, Thats a good sign for 80 min HopGOD, Alternatively a 4 forward bench or 3 with a Utility could be a sign for a 60 minute HopGOD. Any stats on Hopgood less then 65 minutes games?

When the eels played an 80 minute hooker last year, Hopgood's average was  64 minutes
Games when they used interchange on hookers he averaged 67 minutes (2 of those games he started in the bench, remove those and it goes up to 70)

He played 80 minute rarely, so they are often using an interchange on him, whether or not they spell their hooker.
There were enough other confounding factors (origin, who else was in the team) that I wouldn't necessarily read much into it

I think Hopgood will be a big minute lock, who will sometimes play 80 minutes, I certainly wouldn't argue against picking him. There are other players who can also put up similar scores, Murray and Haas the 2 more prominent.
Its likely one of those picks will be better than the others, but can't say who it will be without hindsight.
I don't think picking the wrong one is likely to be the deciding factor in how your season goes.

Milchcow wrote:
I don't think picking the wrong one is likely to be the deciding factor in how your season goes.

this. if they all stay fit and healthy and you stay the course, i don't think its going to have a massive impact which one you choose.

but i will agonise over it anyway.

Morning all! Would you rather go Haas + Tatola or Murray + Cotter. I think they are the same price and currently I’m on the latter.

I don't understand the Roosters 17. Interested in Sitili, Wong, even Lenui, Cheese, and May. But what's with Nat on bench and Angus Egan and Watson not even in 17. Are the ones I'm interested in traps

Metcalf anyone? Any reason he was actually kicking a bit in the trial? Has attacking chops and might get more ball and space next to RTS but a bit of base would be handy.

Looking for an alternative to the deeply uninspiring Hutch.