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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 7 - Vegas, Baby

    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:54 am

    my tv broke wrote:i wonder if footystats will work. there's usually some random issue for the first game of the year. i've got mates coming over soon for a bbq/drinks for the footy, so.. unfortunately it wont be getting fixed today if so. apologies in advance!

    just did some ~quick tests~ and it should be good to go.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:56 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Mathematically you are best to be PODing. All things being equal, you are essentially playing a lottery. When your numbers come up, you want to have numbers that other people don't, so you aren't sharing the winnings with everyone else.


    Game theory to the max.

    Except this isn't a random lottery. The more popular players are generally popular because they have a higher chance of being better picks.
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:56 am

    Hey guys - hope you're all set with your teams and all the best for the start of the season!
    My company Wicky's got a free open league for fantasy, sc and tipping. We also do a bunch of content for league and have punting tips + a discord community that's about to hit 3.5k.

    You can check it out here if you're keen! https://linktr.ee/wickyai

    Will post my team after TLT when it's set - have got no Haas and none of 4 FBs today so it's going to be a bloody scary watch!
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:57 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    This is the correct answer

    Talk of PODs is a bit silly at the start of the season. Its somewhat relevant towards the pointy end as a gamble to make ground.

    Agreed.
    Aardvark Ratnick
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    Post by Aardvark Ratnick Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:57 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    There is no way I'm reading that.


    Bunny supporters aint reading that !!!
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:57 am

    I've somehow ended up with Cheese back in my team, yet I am far from comfortable with it.
    Getting nervous about the Eels hooker situation and if that doesn't eventuate as planned, I will have missed the opportunity to get Smith.

    Pros:
    - Finally fit and healthy with a full pre-season
    - Roosters look sharp and are hoping to start the season strong (for once)
    - 5-6 points of value seems a reasonable expectation
    - Roosters bench seems to indicate Cheese will get spelled for maybe 10-15 mins. Maybe spends some time in the middle.
    - DPP

    Cons:
    - Can't seem to stay healthy
    - Relies way too much on attacking stats (low base)
    - Susceptible to a brain fart and suspension
    - I've been burnt too many times before


    Anyone have any solid reasoning as to why I shouldn't lock in Smith?
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:58 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    just did some ~quick tests~ and it should be good to go.

    Tester at work told me this joke on Friday


    A tester walks into a bar. She asks the bartender for 1 beer. Then 5 beers. Then 100 beers. Then -7 beers. Everything is fine and the tester leaves.

    A real user then walks into the bar. He asks the bartender where the toilet is. The bar explodes.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:59 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    If Tigers were playing round 1 Koro would probably make my team. But too much risk Tigers end up with a bench utiity and he scores around priced average. If I'm wrong he is an okay price point to buy in round 3 or 4

    Agree. Fair chance I start with only one hooker and will need to buy another one anyway.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:01 am

    My Vegas team is currently:

    Cheese
    Murray(vc) Sitili
    Piakura Wong
    Cleary(c)
    Burbo

    I’ve ended up playing it pretty straight. Wow no Haas my only thing. If I get him will be (c) as the super safe don’t captain a TLT2 play
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:01 am

    mattnz wrote:

    If you happened to start with the right PODs in your initial team, other teams wouldn't be able to easily catch you, as they can only trade in at most 2 each week.

    Lets say for example that there are 5 stand out players in week 1, and they happen to all be under 5% ownership and they are all in 1 person's team. They get a massive advantage for a few weeks, while others are spending time bringing them into their team and you can really separate from the pack.

    If the top 5 performers are all high ownership, most players will have some of them and will be able to easily bring in the couple that they don't own.

    A good example of Antipoding, is that likely 40%+ will have Cleary and captain him in R1. If he goes down with a 6 week injury ahead of next week, all those players have a massive handicap to start the season. Those that don't have him will have a great advantage.

    Yeah but the opposite is true too.
    Aardvark Ratnick
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    Post by Aardvark Ratnick Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:07 am

    Got my whole pack playing today, just hope they get through without injury not too phased about minutes or points, Sitili may need to be swapped out is my only concern and have a contingency plan for that.
    THEGAME
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    Post by THEGAME Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:20 am

    Any1 running with neither Wong or Tupo ?

    It sure reduces the stress levels
    Rotinaj
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    Post by Rotinaj Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:23 am

    THEGAME wrote:Any1 running with neither Wong or Tupo ?

    It sure reduces the stress levels

    But what if they are both must haves?
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:26 am

    GreenSchist wrote:I've somehow ended up with Cheese back in my team, yet I am far from comfortable with it.
    Getting nervous about the Eels hooker situation and if that doesn't eventuate as planned, I will have missed the opportunity to get Smith.

    Pros:
    - Finally fit and healthy with a full pre-season
    - Roosters look sharp and are hoping to start the season strong (for once)
    - 5-6 points of value seems a reasonable expectation
    - Roosters bench seems to indicate Cheese will get spelled for maybe 10-15 mins. Maybe spends some time in the middle.
    - DPP

    Cons:
    - Can't seem to stay healthy
    - Relies way too much on attacking stats (low base)
    - Susceptible to a brain fart and suspension
    - I've been burnt too many times before


    Anyone have any solid reasoning as to why I shouldn't lock in Smith?

    Need to compare him to the next best alternative. Can you find similar value elsewhere in a shit position.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:26 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    there are A LOT of casuals/h2h's/etc that play this game that just don't care as much like we nerds do. they simply won't give a shit that willison didnt end up playing when they remember to check their team tomorrow.

    Exactly. I made a Supercoach team when it opened, haven't looked at it since, and won't look at it again. I'm sure on Supercoach forums they'll be talking about pods and percentage ownerships and those percentages will include me and tens of thousands of others who've done the same thing

    Ownership percentages are useful when things shake out a couple of months into the season and you look at top 1000 or whatever on mtvb's site. Looking at the numbers on the official site pre-seasons tells you pretty much nothing.
    Chucky
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    Post by Chucky Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:27 am

    Aardvark Ratnick wrote:


    Bunny supporters aint reading that !!!
    Is that because they can’t read? 🤷‍�
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:28 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Game theory to the max.

    Except this isn't a random lottery. The more popular players are generally popular because they have a higher chance of being better picks.

    What if you only picked all the PODs that are popular here. Still get a winning edge, but also the PODiness.
    Grouse
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    Post by Grouse Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:32 am

    Severely hungover and have thrown together this team last minute with serious headnoise...

    Have landed on the following:

    Grant
    Flegler Haas Cotter
    Piakura Blore/Smithies
    (C)leary Hutchinson
    Burbo Strange
    Papyy Raps Kiraz

    Lussick Wong Sitili Kris
    Flanagan Salmon Hughes Cotric

    Looks pretty standard to most.

    Most likely will do me.

    Best of luck to all!
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:35 am

    Grouse wrote:Severely hungover and have thrown together this team last minute with serious headnoise...

    Have landed on the following:

    Grant
    Flegler Haas Cotter
    Piakura Blore/Smithies
    (C)leary Hutchinson
    Burbo Strange
    Papyy Raps Kiraz

    Lussick Wong Sitili Kris
    Flanagan Salmon Hughes Cotric

    Looks pretty standard to most.

    Most likely will do me.

    Best of luck to all!

    Move Sitili and Wong to starting 13, for flexibility next week.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:39 am

    Grouse wrote:Severely hungover and have thrown together this team last minute with serious headnoise...

    Have landed on the following:

    Grant
    Flegler Haas Cotter
    Piakura Blore/Smithies
    (C)leary Hutchinson
    Burbo Strange
    Papyy Raps Kiraz

    Lussick Wong Sitili Kris
    Flanagan Salmon Hughes Cotric

    Looks pretty standard to most.

    Most likely will do me.

    Best of luck to all!

    what is the plan if both lussick & hands are in the 17...i see some are going bs9 because this looks likely

      Current date/time is Fri Sep 20, 2024 2:26 am