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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 9 - I can't even restart my whole team anymore

    Shady2K
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    Post by Shady2K Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:44 am

    Might be the last decision here…

    TU GRANT (have Chan/Pap as Storm already. Other HOK are Cheese/Levi if not taking)

    TD MOSES
    OB
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    Post by OB Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:45 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Stuff like Weekes over Strange is largely irrelevant, because it becomes public knowledge who actually plays the position in plenty of time for people to change selections before hand.
    But just remember that almost any prediction of minutes/subs from any poster here, or on a podcast is really just a guess, with no actual knowledge. At best they are regurgitating a tweet from someone who does know (eg Barry Toohey for the Knights)

    A couple of years ago TK did a series of pre-season podcasts where they interviewed actual members of the coaching staff / playing group for each team. They were great to listen to, and I wish they came back this year. Even without that TK's podcast is one of the better ones to listen to because at least he is a proper media guy and its generally a professional show.

    And I don't really want to knock people that put a lot of time into creating content, but last year the Amateurs promoted Cam Murray as a viable captaincy option against Cleary/Hynes. And this year they said that Haas was a bad choice.
    I wouldn't necessarily leave my team selection choices up to them


    As with everything, do your own research. I use the podcasts, as I do with this forum to highlight players to do my research on - it's more a time saver so as to not have to look up every player. Any subjective opinion is pretty much taken with a shaker full of salt.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:48 am

    Teeth Eater wrote:In my schooling years I was a prolific night-before crammer when it came to studying for tests, right up until and including my HSC. Prossibably wi i tuornd owt sow smarrt.

    But I did it again last night. Genuinely feel like I did more worthwhile things to my team last night than over the entire time before it. So much so that I am happy to say that 16 of 17 spots in my team are 100% locked in. I'm confident to make that call.

    Was hoping to get a bit of input on my last spot if I could?

    Option 1 (Thumbs Up)- Palasia and 28K in the bank ; I know he's been more or less written off and I get that his PPM isn't great. But if he is a genuine starting lock and gets the minutes to prove it, is it worth taking at least a R1 punt and if he's a dud just use him as trade fodder next week? A lot of us, including me, are taking the punt on Smithies, who is basically an unknown quantity with super sketchy job security. Just wondering if Palasia is probably worth a similar kind of punt?

    Option 2 (Thumbs Down) - V.Fifita and 191K in the bank. Bank gives me desirable freedom to move next week but I don't want a red dot next week (well, 2, with Kini). If he had any type of job security I'd lock it in, but I'm nervous he's the one that drops out next week. Or is it safe enough to assume it'll come down to Eisenhuth or RFM to make way? I just can't see it going that way.

    OR

    Option 3 - T.Tuaupiki and 33K in the bank. Another sketchy option with the main drawcard being that I would play him next week instead of Cotric. Just a bit unsure he actually makes more than 30K or so before CNK is back. Would be my preferred option if I was a bit more certain he'd actually generate some cash in his brief time in my team.

    OR

    Option 4 - J.Bostock and 114K in the bank. I've had Bostock in my team a few times and was happy enough to go with him, but looking at his scores, he's basically AKP from last year, innit? If he's not scoring tries he's struggling to crack 10? I almost feel like Taaffe at FB is probably a "better" option than this? I'm also not sure I'd even play him over Cotric next week either. Kind of went off him pretty solid, but he's an option.    

    OR

    Option 5 - P.Faamausili and 107K in the bank. Decent job security, could plod along to some really slow price rises, possibly?  

    My thoughts:

    Bostock - 4 starts in first grade - 3 scores of 11, 15, 16 with a try.

    Faamusili - Averages 35 minutes for 27 points as starting prop. With that bench and Curran and Hughes there I think that is top end for him. Expecting Curran to come on for him pretty early. Get Hughes and Salmon for cheaper.

    V. Fifita - Terrible stats in NSW Cup. 25 average in 39 minutes. Would put him at 19 points if he somehow managed to get 30 minutes, which I would be surprised at.

    Don't mind Palasia at lock, has his best stats there. Average of 40 in 56 minutes. Des likes a big minute lock normally. Only potential downside is that his other starting MIDs get big minutes, so he could be first off the field.

    I am seriously looking at Tuaupiki. Has great NSW Cup stats, which has translated to NRL pretty well. If he could get a try or 2 he could go large, with decent base. If needing a guy you can play in your 17, it is between him and Palasia.
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:49 am

    Finch wrote:

    Are you getting him?
    Yeah mate I'm all aboard. The downside is he's priced appropriately, the upside is, well, peak Lolo which we all know is big pogs.
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:49 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Round 1 hasn't even started yet* and Liddle is already under an injury cloud.

    Last year, as starting hooker he scored 43 points in 58 minutes. But in only games over 60 minutes his average shoots past 50. So if you think he can consistently get 60+ minutes, then there is clear value there.


    *Technically, round 1 kicked off last Sunday, but you know what I mean

    If Liddle was out would Muhleisen be promoted to starting hooker? Maybe worth chucking him in EMG?
    Mr Trump
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    Post by Mr Trump Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:51 am

    Lads how much minutes do we think Lucas will get you think he’s still worth a shout?
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:52 am

    Also I think it was @Milchcow who suggested him, but I'm aboard the Jaifiti express. Similar to Lolo where worst case, he's priced appropriately, but theres a decent chance he's 10 points undervalued and has had a season where he'd be 14 points undervalued. Willing to take a punt there and use him at 19th man and loop him around Api.
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:54 am

    Mr Trump wrote:Lads how much minutes do we think Lucas will get you think he’s still worth a shout?

    As soon as Barry Toohey said he would share minutes with KPP lost interest in both
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:54 am

    Alright, whinge time. Not calling out anyone, just hate a phrase.

    Rant


    I loathe the phrase 'do your own research'.


    I've been a professional researcher. At a good university. I, my wife and almost everyone I knew, did pretty much nothing but conduct research and talk about it - day in and day out.


    We didn't 'do our own research' outside of the tiny, tiny, miniscule bloody sphere of our world-class expertise. Like, seriously. If you want to talk about optimising theoretical energy market design to allow for rainfall  changes in dam design along the upper Mekong, Paulie will talk to you happily! But ask him about same issue on the upper Irriwaddy and he'll refer you to someone else - and expert in that field.


    There's a reason that the cookie-cutter and community teams do well - and it isn't because they do their own research.


    It is because they use the research of other experts.


    That's what 97% of research is! It's reading the stuff some experts have written down, thinking about it, then copying it out again.


    There are forum members here who have expertise. There are forum members here who post a lot. There is some overlap in those circles.


    That's the research most people should be doing - identifying the difference between me and DK.


    For everything, everything else, there's the community team. That's the research. Use it. Refer people to it.


    and i'm out.:
    Teeth Eater
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    Post by Teeth Eater Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:54 am

    mattnz wrote:

    My thoughts:

    Bostock - 4 starts in first grade - 3 scores of 11, 15, 16 with a try.

    Faamusili - Averages 35 minutes for 27 points as starting prop. With that bench and Curran and Hughes there I think that is top end for him. Expecting Curran to come on for him pretty early. Get Hughes and Salmon for cheaper.

    V. Fifita - Terrible stats in NSW Cup. 25 average in 39 minutes. Would put him at 19 points if he somehow managed to get 30 minutes, which I would be surprised at.

    Don't mind Palasia at lock, has his best stats there. Average of 40 in 56 minutes. Des likes a big minute lock normally. Only potential downside is that his other starting MIDs get big minutes, so he could be first off the field.

    I am seriously looking at Tuaupiki. Has great NSW Cup stats, which has translated to NRL pretty well. If he could get a try or 2 he could go large, with decent base. If needing a guy you can play in your 17, it is between him and Palasia.

    Yep, funnily enough, as I was typing it I came to that conclusion too. Currently sitting with Palasia, but also tempted by Tuaupiki. This is what I will undoubtedly ponder for the rest of the day. And probably until 6pm tomorrow. Thanks for your thoughts.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:01 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Also I think it was @Milchcow who suggested him, but I'm aboard the Jaifiti express. Similar to Lolo where worst case, he's priced appropriately, but theres a decent chance he's 10 points undervalued and has had a season where he'd be 14 points undervalued. Willing to take a punt there and use him at 19th man and loop him around Api.

    Although I think he still might go OK, His late season average gets quite a boost from scoring a try in round 27. Without that try he doesn't look as impressive so I am passing for now, but hope he goes well
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:07 am

    Teeth Eater wrote:

    Yep, funnily enough, as I was typing it I came to that conclusion too. Currently sitting with Palasia, but also tempted by Tuaupiki. This is what I will undoubtedly ponder for the rest of the day. And probably until 6pm tomorrow. Thanks for your thoughts.

    Just looked at the Titans bench and it doesn't look good for Palasia.

    Randall can play lock, when Verrills comes on and there are 3 other MIDs on the bench.
    Tino averaged 62 minutes last season, Fotuaika an even higher 64 minutes as starting prop!
    I doubt that Palasia gets close to that 56 minutes at lock. Might be 45ish, which would have him low 30s scoring.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:13 am

    Teeth Eater wrote:

    There were questions above about podcasts and my take on them is that you listen to them all with not only a grain of salt, but a dried up ocean coating your body. If you listen to enough you’ll get a 50/50 split saying Cotric is out next week, Hopoate stays. The other half say the opposite.

    Last podcast I heard tonight was predicting that even before Whitehead is back (I assume… how long is he actually out for?) Horse will be back, play lock and push Smithies out to EDG and Hosking misses out.

    Truth is, no one actually knows; probably not even Ricky himself.
    Podcasts are not club affiliated! They simply people like you and me with opinions. All they do is pass on information or opinions and then leave it for you to do whatever you like with it. They are useful for stats and analytics that you couldn’t be arsed to figure out yourself. You might be able to blame injuries for your poor Fantasy season but you can’t blame some random on a podcast. The problem with podcasts is that there are so many. Have a listen, you may find one you like but at the end of the day you are the one who put the likes of Tommy Talau in your side! The ones I like are Talking League, Fantasy Amateurs, JB. There are lots more though. Fantasy Amateurs can be very funny!
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:14 am

    L-Jimmy wrote:

    I loathe the phrase 'do your own research'.

    Post of the day and it's only something AM in Australia.

    I always thought reading the forum is a key component of doing my own research
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:20 am


    Well said @L-Jimmy about research

    Some of this post may sound sarcastic, but I mean it genuinely. Specifically regarding NRL fantasy what does "doing your own research" look like?

    Nobody is personally attending training sessions of all 17 teams to see who they plan on lining up for the year.
    Is it trawling twitter/club forums to find people who have some knowledge and reporting back. Takes a bit of work to separate people who actually know stuff from people who are talking crap. Wacko basically turned this process into a job and he still can't get it right all the time, so if you can you should probably try and monetise your ability.


    Is research just looking at previous years stats and trying to extrapolate?
    That is what most of us do here as their primary method of picking teams. Humans are notoriously bad at extrapolating from incomplete data, and are great at seeing patterns that don't exist.
    You will often hear people say Player X goes better when Player Y isn't there, or they do better in years divisible by 2, or they are a fast/slow starter to the season. A lot of the time this will be people creating patterns that don't exist from normal statistical variance. I am fully aware I make this sort of prediction all the time.

    Is research just consuming as many podcasts/articles/forum posts as you can and then trying to sift through everything you've read and combine it, hoping the wisdom of the crowds gives you a good result. Sort of what our community team tries to do, but with a bigger crowd.

    And the flipside of this - what does "not doing your own research" look like?
    Just picking the community team and going from there? Picking based on ownership percentages or whoever gets recommended by a podcast? Asking questions here and letting the thumb up, thumb down button pick your team? Just picking players that are "fun"

    Final riddle for today.
    If Barry Toohey puts out a tweet that says Dylan Lucas and Kai Pearce Paul will share minutes this season. Then L-Jimmy posts that tweet on Facebook, and then Rabbits screenshots that Facebook post on this forum and I see the screenshot of the Facebook post about a tweet. Who in that process has done their own research?



    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:26 am


    Speaking of research. Last season the amateurs put out an excellent piece around navigating the byes with the minumum number of trades.

    Is there anything like that for this season?

    I've had a bit of a look into it, but it involves a hell of a lot of work, so I have massive appreciation for the Amateurs for putting that together last year
    Especially as last years version went to shit when they kept selecting people to play origin at the worst possible time for fantasy bye planning
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:26 am

    Teeth Eater wrote:

    Yep, funnily enough, as I was typing it I came to that conclusion too. Currently sitting with Palasia, but also tempted by Tuaupiki. This is what I will undoubtedly ponder for the rest of the day. And probably until 6pm tomorrow. Thanks for your thoughts.

    Palasia hasn't even registered on my radar until you posted about him and there's probably good reason for it. If he was a good prospect he would have been discussed in detail
    Toothlessshark
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    Post by Toothlessshark Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:28 am

    Reading like a madman to get a few things together last little bit
    Could use another opinion
    In isolation
    TU - Harris + fog
    TD - hopgood + Metcalf
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:34 am

    Lolo looks like a good wait and see for R1. If he scores 50 in 60 minutes, he is an easy swap for Tupoinua injury.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:41 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    Api has been in my side for about 2 weeks now and I love it. We all focus on the short term way too much here and avoid guys like Api because but I don't get any points THIS week! >Sad

    Watch him score 61 in round 2 and every man and his dog will be spending a trade on getting him in Coffee
    In the time that Api has two buys Robson has 0. How many more points do you think Api outscores Robson by per week to justify that option? It would need to be at least 10 I’m guessing.

      Current date/time is Thu Nov 14, 2024 3:20 pm