NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 20 - The Gang All Get Injured

wolfking wrote:Early thoughts are looking like Kini and Wong out for Galvin and Carrigan or maybe Hoppo.

Could toss Piakura or Chan instead but would have to go cheaper than Carrigan.

Hard to know out if the 3 which should go first.

Koro instead of Carrigan?

Shady2K wrote:

Koro instead of Carrigan?

Why should we Carrigan?

Shady2K wrote:

Koro instead of Carrigan?

Looked at him but already have Robson, Levi and Lussick. I guess ranked at 41K it really doesn't fucking matter. Rick gonna be solid and big minutes for at least a few weeks.

Koro has a low floor though. I mean, Tigers had one good game. Are we going all recency bias now on all things Tigers?

Revraiser wrote:

Can u incorporate this into a spreadsheet of some sort pls

Here you go mate

RandomSil wrote:

I don't normally weigh in on this shit, but how hard up are you that 30 second welcome to country when you're sitting on a plane, or attending an event are ya? I mean I can loan you a twenty mate.

As far as golf goes, I played Lee Carvallos Putting Challenge once.

Would you like to play again? Hahahaa

wolfking wrote:

Looked at him but already have Robson, Levi and Lussick.  I guess ranked at 41K it really doesn't fucking matter. Rick gonna be solid and big minutes for at least a few weeks.

Koro has a low floor though.  I mean, Tigers had one good game.  Are we going all recency bias now on all things Tigers?

Just sell Wong and buy Carrigan, you can get rid of the shittos next week.

wolfking wrote:

Looked at him but already have Robson, Levi and Lussick.  I guess ranked at 41K it really doesn't fucking matter. Rick gonna be solid and big minutes for at least a few weeks.

Koro has a low floor though.  I mean, Tigers had one good game.  Are we going all recency bias now on all things Tigers?

40 tackles, 60m, maybe 2 goals - 50 base?

Teeth Eater wrote:

I wasn't on the forum on Sunday at all and I assume it was discussed at the time, but that try where he purposely went over Turbo rather than around him was the highlight of my weekend. Probably year (of NRL so far), to be fair.

I preferred the greatest lock in the game’s try v Cronulla the night before!

Know people love to wait and watch a week or two to see that cows are legit. Stops you trading in dud cows which is crippling.

Just think people are taking it too far.

Blaize - priced at 19 points. Break even is 2. His job security is reasonable (8+ weeks). If you want to wait a week he’ll be closer to 300k with a score of 30 and he’ll be priced at almost 22.

By waiting a week thinking you are mitigating risk you’ve increased it from averaging 29 to needing to average 32. If he scores again or has a good game he’s even more expensive and it goes more against you as the margin is slimmer and you have an inflated game.

If he has a poor game he’s still more expensive but for reference fantasy superstar Kane Elgey averaged 26 ish. He could be that bad but if you pick him up now it’s still 7 points of value to play at CTR.Will he be worse than Kane Elgey bad (strictly fantasy - not disparaging him or his success in getting to the highest level of professional footy)?

Fine was priced at 21 last week and is now priced at 24. It’s a much tougher value call this week.

There’s a few people who’ll go under 17 playing to pickup Galvin this week. 72k for waiting a week hurts. Still worth it and it will be for a while but he’s a bit of a supercow (not the norm).

I know there are Duncan’s, Kinis and Viliames that show the other side but if they’ve played a week acknowledge there may be more risk in waiting. The small sample size increases but the range of results you need also moves so the delay can actually make it more risky and not less.

Don’t want people to compound errors by swapping dud cows but in a season where there isn’t a lot going around (and the ability to regularly put slow burners down at 20/21) know going a week early is probably better risk management.

TLDR: 1 week is okay to wait and see. After that the value dries up really quickly so be bolder probably buying Blaize this week. Think he’ll be better than Elgey (average just under 30 points) and may have a bigger game somewhere in there to squeeze out that bit extra. Also he’s a CTR. 30 ish there is great at this point of the season.

Boozecluez wrote:

How long is half a granville?

One-quarter of a full Nelson.

Camo123 wrote:
In Bellamy post match presser re Blore:

I thought he did a really good job and we just need to give him some time there

Bellamy in the same interview "hopefully we get Joey Chan back for the next game too.""

Have done Walsh and Wong to Turbo and Galvin leaving me with this rabble. So many fires to put out but not enough trades

406k bank

Cheese
Cotter Sitili May
Salmon Smithies
Galvin Hutch
Strange Burbo
Talau Turbo Teddy

Hughes
Levi
Flanagan


Grant
Chan
Piakura
Cleary
Papy

Cap'n Ranta wrote:Know people love to wait and watch a week or two to see that cows are legit. Stops you trading in dud cows which is crippling.

Just think people are taking it too far.

Blaize - priced at 19 points.  Break even is 2. His job security is reasonable (8+ weeks). If you want to wait a week he’ll be closer to 300k with a score of 30 and he’ll be priced at almost 22.

By waiting a week thinking you are mitigating risk you’ve increased it from averaging 29 to needing to average 32. If he scores again or has a good game he’s even more expensive and it goes more against you as the margin is slimmer and you have an inflated game.

If he has a poor game he’s still more expensive but for reference fantasy superstar Kane Elgey averaged 26 ish. He could be that bad but if you pick him up now it’s still 7 points of value to play at CTR.Will he be worse than Kane Elgey bad (strictly fantasy - not disparaging him or his success in getting to the highest level of professional footy)?

Fine was priced at 21 last week and is now priced at 24. It’s a much tougher value call this week.

There’s a few people who’ll go under 17 playing to pickup Galvin this week.  72k for waiting a week hurts. Still worth it and it will be for a while but he’s a bit of a supercow (not the norm).

I know there are Duncan’s, Kinis and Viliames that show the other side but if they’ve played a week acknowledge there may be more risk in waiting. The small sample size increases but the range of results you need also moves so the delay can actually make it more risky and not less.

Don’t want people to compound errors by swapping dud cows but in a season where there isn’t a lot going around (and the ability to regularly put slow burners down at 20/21) know going a week early is probably better risk management.

TLDR: 1 week is okay to wait and see. After that the value dries up really quickly so be bolder probably buying Blaize this week. Think he’ll be better than Elgey (average just under 30 points) and may have a bigger game somewhere in there to squeeze out that bit extra. Also he’s a CTR. 30 ish there is great at this point of the season.

Love it. Great post. Agree.

Take risks.

wolfking wrote:

Looked at him but already have Robson, Levi and Lussick.  I guess ranked at 41K it really doesn't fucking matter. Rick gonna be solid and big minutes for at least a few weeks.

Koro has a low floor though.  I mean, Tigers had one good game.  Are we going all recency bias now on all things Tigers?

1 great game guarantees an awesome season! Please ignore what happened after we smashed The Cowboys last year! It’s just refreshing not to be 17th! Please allow me to enjoy rugby league again, until Monday afternoon at least. Reality bites!

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
I preferred the greatest lock in the game’s try v Cronulla the night before!

I might have preferred that too, if it happened the week before, when he was still in my Fantasy team.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:Know people love to wait and watch a week or two to see that cows are legit. Stops you trading in dud cows which is crippling.

Just think people are taking it too far.

Blaize - priced at 19 points.  Break even is 2. His job security is reasonable (8+ weeks). If you want to wait a week he’ll be closer to 300k with a score of 30 and he’ll be priced at almost 22.

By waiting a week thinking you are mitigating risk you’ve increased it from averaging 29 to needing to average 32. If he scores again or has a good game he’s even more expensive and it goes more against you as the margin is slimmer and you have an inflated game.

If he has a poor game he’s still more expensive but for reference fantasy superstar Kane Elgey averaged 26 ish. He could be that bad but if you pick him up now it’s still 7 points of value to play at CTR.Will he be worse than Kane Elgey bad (strictly fantasy - not disparaging him or his success in getting to the highest level of professional footy)?

Fine was priced at 21 last week and is now priced at 24. It’s a much tougher value call this week.

There’s a few people who’ll go under 17 playing to pickup Galvin this week.  72k for waiting a week hurts. Still worth it and it will be for a while but he’s a bit of a supercow (not the norm).

I know there are Duncan’s, Kinis and Viliames that show the other side but if they’ve played a week acknowledge there may be more risk in waiting. The small sample size increases but the range of results you need also moves so the delay can actually make it more risky and not less.

Don’t want people to compound errors by swapping dud cows but in a season where there isn’t a lot going around (and the ability to regularly put slow burners down at 20/21) know going a week early is probably better risk management.

TLDR: 1 week is okay to wait and see. After that the value dries up really quickly so be bolder probably buying Blaize this week. Think he’ll be better than Elgey (average just under 30 points) and may have a bigger game somewhere in there to squeeze out that bit extra. Also he’s a CTR. 30 ish there is great at this point of the season.

I am seeing Talagi as a great way to avoid a bad score in the bye rounds for May and Kiraz. Will be able to loop him and Strange, so shouldn't drop too many points and hopefully avoid any really bad scores, that others may be getting that round.

I also think the big risk is getting behind on the must have cows. Those that missed Galvin last week, are a week behind on him this week, so you are behind on Talagi the following week.

Mulvy wrote:I'm rollercoasting here, can't keep up. I'm likely to post something well meaning soon, that will come across terribly in the current context.


Basically like all my posts.

Back in Ur hole son !

lukeayee wrote:

Don't think that's a bait. As a fairly new parent of 2 boys myself, going to public funded events (library reading classes, music etc) I was shocked that they now encourage welcome to country at the start of every class and teach tolerance to 1 year olds and up. This isn't education it's indoctrinating them with a victim mentality which ultimately will set them up to fail in life. I don't know anyone who did anything great by making excuses their whole lives. Shit is getting out of control.

One thing annoys me about all you right wing snowflakes is that you can't even being arsed to learn what it is you are angry about.

There is a 0% chance there is a welcome to country at the start of every class.

An acknowledgement of country is probably what you want to blame for turning us all into tolerant failures.

Bethany_B wrote:

Just sell Wong and buy Carrigan, you can get rid of the shittos next week.

Yeah, makes sense.

wolfking wrote:Early thoughts are looking like Kini and Wong out for Galvin and Carrigan or maybe Hoppo.

Could toss Piakura or Chan instead but would have to go cheaper than Carrigan.

Hard to know out if the 3 which should go first.

Yeah it's a tough one. Wong scores well when playing, who knows when though, could be this week still, could be never. Chan was first choice and is back next week, maybe. Piakura probably best JS of all, also likely out the longest.