NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 32 - Let's get ready to rumble

Just looking at the bye rounds and, probably not news to most, but I think (much like last year) round 14 is going to be a massive pain in the ring for everyone. No raiders, roosters or dolphins.

Might be a case of get ready for 13 early and save the trades for 14.

Milchcow wrote:
I find it strange how people will make fun of matt for weeks because he points out CNK has a high average (after 2 games), and then go around and trade in a guy because he just scored 2 tries.

I don't think the odds of Plath maintaining (reaching) a 50 average are much different to the odds of CNK being the top fullback this year

That the Seyfarth guy?

Always love the BE list.

just learned that I need to remove Blore off my cheapie watchlist.

Prick’s over 600k

Milchcow wrote:
I find it strange how people will make fun of matt for weeks because he points out CNK has a high average (after 2 games), and then go around and trade in a guy because he just scored 2 tries.

I don't think the odds of Plath maintaining (reaching) a 50 average are much different to the odds of CNK being the top fullback this year

Not sure the relevance of his tries. Seems to be at about a 55 min avg prior to Fleg injury and potentially more whilst Flegler is out. he sits at about a 0.9 ppm.

0.9*55 and there's value to be found and a potential keeper if minutes continue to rise.

This is his first year playing mid full time - he will continue to get better and better imo. He suits the ideal tough as nails ball playing middle who will do the tough stuff all game being the fittest at the club, breaking records for fitness in preseason so big minutes are not out of the realm of possibility.

Unlike CNK there is not years of output to compare to.

Honey Badger wrote:Fog was one player I didn't want to have to trade out. Looking at maybe going Fog to Hughes for something different. Never owned Hughes before in Fantasy. SJ's niggles have put me off paying full price for him and seems silly to trade in Brown before his bye

On my longlist too. Wonder if Munster injury struggles mean Hughes is doing that bit more and can maintain current average, or this is one of his purple patches and he averages 45 the next 5 weeks

@my tv broke i remember thinking Ur comment about switching players was taking the piss, as though it should be possible to do so.

Do the math, should have been Plath.

Milchcow wrote:
I find it strange how people will make fun of matt for weeks because he points out CNK has a high average (after 2 games), and then go around and trade in a guy because he just scored 2 tries.

I don't think the odds of Plath maintaining (reaching) a 50 average are much different to the odds of CNK being the top fullback this year

robelgordo wrote:

Actually agree to an extent

I think the difference is CNK there was years of data to suggest his current price was no value, whereas Plath is new and shiny and that means there are still potential (albeit unlikely) pathways to 50 avg

I don't think I'm even getting the guy but I'll bite.

Who on here would be trading him in because he scored two tries? I am certainly completely ignoring the try points when looking at him, as I am sure everyone here would be.

We're talking about expectations for the guy to average 45-50, not 70 every week. Across the 4 game sample size this year there is plenty to suggest he can average 45-50.

This is a MID not a volatile WFB which (mostly) everyone knows have major ups and downs.

my tv broke wrote:

people don't poke fun of matt because he pointed out cnk had two good games.

on plath, i don't think anyone actually thinks last weeks score is 'the new norm' ? but emerging player getting bigger mins every week.. of course there's temptation there.

if you go back through the tape, i tried to switch trade in from Brown to Plath right on kickoff but i was too late/slow. the two tries was pretty fkn annoying in the end hahaha. i might just let him go through to the keeper now though.

Seems to love backing the ball carrier up. Chased Fuller in for his try too. Just looks like a busy kind of player

BCT05 wrote:
I don't think I'm even getting the guy but I'll bite.

Who on here would be trading him in because he scored two tries? I am certainly completely ignoring the try points when looking at him, as I am sure everyone here would be.

We're talking about expectations for the guy to average 45-50, not 70 every week. Across the 4 game sample size this year there is plenty to suggest he can average 45-50.

This is a MID not a volatile WFB which (mostly) everyone knows have major ups and downs.

I just don’t think Plath is that interesting. The tries can be taken out but not sure you’d look at all if the tries weren’t there to start with, if you get what I mean. I didn’t like Joliffe a few weeks back either.

I wasn’t on the boards at the time of what we can only assume is being called CNK gate, I guess I was responding simply to the merits of CNK as a pick and Plath as a pick. If Matt went full Matt and said he’s average 55, 60, 65… guess the cow is being slightly disingenuous, I was not meaning to, just saying CNK was obviously trappy and Plath is a good chance of being trappy.

You won’t really lose out on Plath cash wise though, and he plays R13 with DPP if R14 can be managed

Revraiser wrote:@my tv broke i remember thinking Ur comment about switching players was taking the piss, as though it should be possible to do so.

Do the maths, should have been Plath.

haha, i legitimately tried to panic  swap my trade-in from dbrown to plath, was a minute too late. they were running out onto the field at the time and it had already locked (plus my stream was probably a few mins delayed). each try i was like noooooooooooo

anyway, if you grab him now its a bit of a gamble. decent punt imo, personally just not sure i should be keep trading so hard at this stage. we are getting new cows every other week as well.

I was however here for Matt’s sad celebration of some 79 min CNK junk

Warriors beaten by the best though

Gutted I’ll likely miss the ANZAC game (and also fuck up my fantasy team) by camping on the coast, in late-April, when it’s clearly too cold to do so.

I will however be at Shark Park in R9 to see Hynes banner up against us

Does anyone know if Hopoate played in NSW cup last week?

Wondering/Hoping Schiller gets another run

Finch wrote:Does anyone know if Hopoate played in NSW cup last week?

Wondering/Hoping Schiller gets another run

looks like he did

Not playing 14 is a big disincentive but my feeling on Plath would be that there is probably value there but I for one(And I'm assuming a few others) have enough $500-$600k guys with the potential to average around 45.

I love what Matt brings and try not to have a crack that often but honestly it's mostly the grandiose predictions and selective memory that sends posters wild, not the recency bias.


Edit : But the grandiose predictions and selective memory are what makes Matt a great poster

Milchcow wrote:
I find it strange how people will make fun of matt for weeks because he points out CNK has a high average (after 2 games), and then go around and trade in a guy because he just scored 2 tries.

I don't think the odds of Plath maintaining (reaching) a 50 average are much different to the odds of CNK being the top fullback this year

I feel like Matt gets a lot, not because he’s saying so and so is a good player with a high average after two games, but it’s the way that he sounds so convinced that because there might be these subtle changes that said players average will increase or whatever. And we often just kinda say well, you do you, Matt.

Not the best comparison, but I liken it to when a child brings a crayon drawing for their parents to put on the fridge, and they’ll proudly display it, when they know it’s absolute rubbish.

Finch wrote:Does anyone know if Hopoate played in NSW cup last week?

Wondering/Hoping Schiller gets another run

All NSW Cup games/results/fantasy stats are available at NSWRL.com.au

Hopoate played fullback last week (in the #3 jersey)

https://www.nswrl.com.au/draw/nsw-cup/2024/round-7/bears-v-raiders/

BCT05 wrote:

I don't think I'm even getting the guy but I'll bite.

Who on here would be trading him in because he scored two tries? I am certainly completely ignoring the try points when looking at him, as I am sure everyone here would be.

We're talking about expectations for the guy to average 45-50, not 70 every week. Across the 4 game sample size this year there is plenty to suggest he can average 45-50.

This is a MID not a volatile WFB which (mostly) everyone knows have major ups and downs.

If you ignore last week, Plath averages 41 points in 47 minutes in his career. Only 5 games so there's a lot of variability there, but he's currently priced at about that average

Last week he not only scored twice, but played 20 minutes more than he normally does. Its big extrapolation to assume he'll always get that game time. I don't think there is a tonne of value in him.

JBrailey the captain now since ponga is out? should cement that 80 minute role and be a bit more involved

If Tom Gilbert didn't get 70 minutes in the Dolphins rotation it seems unlikely that Max Plath will. Not impossible and not without value, but it's probably an absolute lack of any other subgun mid options that's making people look at him.

That pesky Round 14 bye changes things, current guys missing will be Cheese, May, Crichton, Kris, Strange, Chevy and then Plath if I add him.

So that makes 7. Of those guys I’ll probably be trading out Cheese, Kris before then. Crichton, May, Strange and Chevy will most likely still be in the team if there roles continues (May obviously a bout up and down).

Headaches