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Snatchpato wrote:Doing a write up mostly for my own planning. Any feedback of course welcome.
- Plans:
Current team at full strength with probable trade outs at the end (already certain on doing Kris > Hands) with 12(3) trades left:Api
King DeBelin Plath
Carty KPP
Galvin SWalker
Iro Talagi
Kiraz Garrick Weekes
INT: Hopgood JBrailey Hands Koula
RES: Atkinson Shoes Hynes Strange
Team value: 12.857 million - This value is very low compared to where I want to be, mostly due to completely missing Armstrong and Aitken.
So when looking at this squad I'm trying to figure out who's definitely being traded out, how much coin that'll generate, how many guns it can buy (with a ~300k cashout to facilitate) and then figure out how my trades are looking.
Definite trade outs: Talagi, Hands, Koula, Strange, Shoes, Atkinson, Weekes (7)
Guys I'd happily hold all year if shit hit the fan: Api, King, DeBelin, Plath, Carty, KPP, Galvin, SWalker, Iro, Kiraz, Garrick, Hopgood, JBrailey, Hynes (14)
So at worst case (if no luxury trades available), I have 14 keepers and need another 4-5 to be comfortable. With 20 (12+trades left, I'll be hoping to save/use 8 on injury, leaving me with 12 to work with to get those 4-5 keepers, noting that if I trade one of my keepers to another keeper, it doesn't improve the position (e.g. Hynes > Fifita this week).
So in order to turn 12 trades into 5 keepers, I'll need 5 trades to get the keepers, 5 probably cashouts to afford them, which leave 2 trades. This likely means I'll only have the option of one outright cash cow (unless those cashouts end up working really well).
Based on cost predictions, and trading out guys at a relative peak in price, I can generate the following revenue to spend on keepers:
Talagi: 470k
Hands: 560k
Koula: 470k (current)
Strange: 460k (current)
Shoes: 400k (current)
Atkinson: 520k
Weekes: 700k
Total: 3.6 mil
So if I was to spread the 3.6mil across 5 guns, it'll average out to be about 720k per gun. Ideally I'd like to get in Cleary and Yeo and/or other high priced guns, so likely I'll be looking at only being able to get 2 uber guns (900k each) and 2 lesser guns (750k each) and use the remaining 300k to upgrade a guy like Carty/KPP/King etc to a full gun.
Priority trade outs are:
1. Strange (on bye, peaked)
2. Shoes (bye next week, maybe not peaked but high BE and not that much more to make)
3. Koula (didn't get fullback, peaked)
4. Talagi (probably peaked)
5. Atkinson (will probably peak during this origin period)
6. Weekes (Fogarty inevitable return will destroy his scoring)
7. Hands (will take a lot of time to reach his peak - outside chance of being a final season keeper)
Guys who I'd love to have in my final side (no particular order):
1. Cleary
2. Fifita
3. Yeo
4. Haas
5. Hynes
6. Murray
7. SJ
8. Angus
9. Carrigan
10. Teddy
11. Ponga
12. Edwards
So my gun shopping has to come from this lot as priorities, and if I can't afford them, look to pickup lesser guns such as:
1. Bateman
2. iPAp
3. Latrell
4. Aitken (on a heater, will regress imo)
5. AFB
6. EKatoa
Trade-in timing will have to be balanced of course, but this means the urgent trade-outs above (Strange, Shoes, Koula) will need to be traded to cash cows in the short term, and I look to pickup the guns later.
Finally this all concludes with the near-term planning of "what to do this week". I absolutely want Fifita, and there's 2 clear ways to go about it.
1. Hynes/NSW do well, and therefore he's likely to stay in the side meaning: Hynes > Fifita
2. Hynes/NSW do shit, meaning Hynes might get dropped and be a valuable captain through origin, in which case I'll try and do a combination of Strange, Shoes, Koula > Fifita, Wighton, other player.
In any case I feel like my team is set up relatively well over the bye period, with only a few issues to iron out (mostly EDG/MIDs for rounds 16/19), but I can't plan that far into the future. Will revisit this closer to round 16 once Origin 1 and rounds 14/15 provide some clarity. I feel like I have some decent wiggle room, as the above is sort of based on a moderately worst case scenario. Obviously an actual worst case scenario will completely derail my season no matter what I plan, so I feel like planning for a moderately worst case scenario will allow me to survive, but also thrive if things go my way.
One thing mate, when you trade your 7 cows to 5 guns, you will also need at very least 460k out of that to fill the other 2 spots. So really you $3.12m to spend on 5 guns, or $624k per gun
