2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2

Hi guys. I've just managed to catch up on the off season chat.
It looks like i'm way behind everyone on here. I haven't even thought about making a team.
Cheers to SI (or whatever your name is now) and Welshy for the well wishes on the engagement. I know the rules about mentioning women, so before anyone asks, check out the new avatar.

Chucky wrote:Hi guys. I've just managed to catch up on the off season chat.
It looks like i'm way behind everyone on here. I haven't even thought about making a team.
Cheers to SI (or whatever your name is now) and Welshy for the well wishes on the engagement. I know the rules about mentioning women, so before anyone asks, check out the new avatar.

Would smash!

Chucky wrote:Hi guys. I've just managed to catch up on the off season chat.
It looks like i'm way behind everyone on here. I haven't even thought about making a team.
Cheers to SI (or whatever your name is now) and Welshy for the well wishes on the engagement. I know the rules about mentioning women, so before anyone asks, check out the new avatar.

Batting well above your average Chucky

@ R&T. It does depend on position. I personally do not use a figure but try finding the player with the biggest room for improvement in each position. For example this year at WFB, I estimate Hayne to be 20 points undervalued but in the FRF position I think Gurgess will be the one who improves the most and is undervalued by about 13.

Chucky wrote:It looks like i'm way behind everyone on here. I haven't even thought about making a team.

nah mate, dont worry, its just like school. it can be crammed on the night.

while I'm taking in plenty of info and mental notes, I haven't bothered to actually try piece together a team yet. there's no real point with so many unknowns re possible cash cows and such.

I'll be happy once the site is properly open so I can get the "players I must have" into the squad and then start working around that. but one change often causes a butterfly effect and within 20 mins you have an entirely different squad. much fun!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Milchcow wrote:
Goal kicking is allegedly the reason behind Hastings being considered for a starting spot at manly.

As for Moses, he unquestionably improved his actual play after Farah was dropped, the main question is the impact on his fantasy scores

So far my best guess is that without Farah he may be 3 points undervalued, a further 3 points if he kicks.

Quick question, how much value do you go looking for to find "undervalued" players. I.e. are you looking for 5 points, 7 points, 10+ points before you generally deem someone to be undervalued and worth picking up? Im sure its price & position dependent, and probably dependent on the season etc, but I guess Im trying to figure out what sort of value should I be looking for before I start to really add guys to my watch list?

Cheers

It's a very interesting question. Could be something that the stats heads try to tinker with. From my point of view, the consistency of those scores is an extra variable as well. So someone like Moses, he can throw out a 20 odd or low 30 every now and again. When someone does that to you, it's not just frustrating for your score, but also if they do it twice in a row for example, any money you've made is gone.

That's not to say the whole point of finding undervalued players is to make money. The main reason is to pay less for a player that can score as much or more than the player who costs you 30 or 40k more.

Your right MTV, there is no point getting too serious until TLT but there is plenty of research and fun to have in the meantime.

my tv broke wrote:

nah mate, dont worry, its just like school. it can be crammed on the night.

while I'm taking in plenty of info and mental notes, I haven't bothered to actually try piece together a team yet. there's no real point with so many unknowns re possible cash cows and such.

I'll be happy once the site is properly open so I can get the "players I must have" into the squad and then start working around that. but one change often causes a butterfly effect and within 20 mins you have an entirely different squad. much fun!

100% agree.
I generally fill my squad with the cheapies and then replace with must haves.
However the right cheapies won't be known until TLT, in most cases.

So now the Warriors want to buy Folau for 2018. Are they ignorant of the fact that their forwards are crap apart from Bodene & Mannering. The 3 of Matulino, Lillyman & Hoffman are has beens & the young guys like Grubb, Vete, Lisone have potential but need another couple of years. Are the Warriors even in the right thread as this is fantasy & with Foran, RTS & Folau it looks like they're building a sc team.

Did the nrl change the rules in regard to team lists naming or am I mistaken?

Sashamaloo wrote:Did the nrl change the rules in regard to team lists naming or am I mistaken?

They've talked about changing it for a couple of years now. But nothing has ever happened. They still need a Tuesday deadline to print Big League. But surely its life span is limited and will have to die out soon.
Then they can move to Thursdays or something and that will help.

Monday night football is gone now so the worst offender for bad team lists has gone

In regards to the Moses discussion

starting with Moses in your fantasy team is a risk, he's a bit of a wildcard, even though he has been trending upwards and towards "keeper" teritory.
A lot of the gun halves will give you exactly what you pay for, I'd like to start with Cleary, who I consider great fantasy value, but he comes at a cost.
I think Norman is the next best option out of the other halfbacks at a more affordable price.
There's no clearcut Cashcow on the radar in the halves at the moment, hence the Moses discussion.
Mortimer might be a good mid-range cashcow, if the Segs deal doesn't happen and he gets the starting gig at Hooker.
I'm a bit weary of Elgey and the Dragons options, but at a low price I'll probably take the risk and drop them on the bench

It should be wednesdays 5pm or perhaps even thursdays at 10am. But clubs should be in some way required to release injury news on a tuesday/wednesday? Perhaps?

All the big European football leagues hold individual press conferences each week for every manager and they go through all the team news and injuries. If a player is out he will verbally rule him out on record.

Too much mind games get played by the coaches in the NRL you can never know what's truly going on

Spectre wrote:All the big European football leagues hold individual press conferences each week for every manager and they go through all the team news and injuries. If a player is out he will verbally rule him out on record.

Too much mind games get played by the coaches in the NRL you can never know what's truly going on

And yet those "ruled out" sometimes still play and teams are selected, from a full squad, an hour before kick off. Teamlists days in advance are a bit of an anomaly to Australian sport.

Personally I dont think its a big issue. Often a player really is a game day decision for a coach whether they decide theyre fit or a tactical choice.

Fantasy competition is so damn tight as it is. It sucks for those who cant be checking their phones an hour before kickoff 8 games a week but ill take the advantage if i can get it.

A chosen/specified 18th man would be nice though. Its a little unfair to get the lowest scoring player as an AE.

I don't like the chosen 18th man idea because its even easier to abuse than the current AE setup.

I'd rather one where you choose for each position, that way its harder to leave a weaker/more unpredictable position empty and encourages having depth across the team.

The current AE setup is open to abuse.
Captain's loophole. Or running short in WFB or CTR to get a higher scoring position as AE.

With ranked subs all you need to do is ensure position requirements (eg at least 1 hooker, 2 centres etc) and then it is easier for everyone. Can do away with Rolling lockout too. They probably like rolling lockout for the extra page hits, even though it's a pain for fantasy players.

Milchcow wrote:
The current AE setup is open to abuse.
Captain's loophole. Or running short in WFB or CTR to get a higher scoring position as AE.

With ranked subs all you need to do is ensure position requirements (eg at least 1 hooker,  2 centres etc)  and then it is easier for everyone.  Can do away with Rolling lockout too.  They probably like rolling lockout for the extra page hits,  even though it's a pain for fantasy players.

I'd never considered the extra traffic, but yeah, makes sense.

Butters has been championing the idea for 3 or 4 years now as well, and I know you have mentioned it for a few seasons. I like it in our Ultimate League comp, but can still be frustrating in it's own ways. Personally happy with how it is in Fantasy at the moment but I am almost always on and only miss maybe only half a dozen games a season.

I have no life in Winter

Milchcow wrote:
The current AE setup is open to abuse.
Captain's loophole. Or running short in WFB or CTR to get a higher scoring position as AE.

With ranked subs all you need to do is ensure position requirements (eg at least 1 hooker,  2 centres etc)  and then it is easier for everyone.  Can do away with Rolling lockout too.  They probably like rolling lockout for the extra page hits,  even though it's a pain for fantasy players.

Yeah the position requirements is the key though, I don't want them to half ass it and just let you name one AE which will cover any position. That's just asking to be abused worse than the current system, which at least requires you to have no dud scorers and can backfire if someone you didn't expect to play is suddenly named.