2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

I'm just waiting for DPP to put Mcguire in my team

Loomer wrote:

What makes you think Kennedy will get enough minutes let alone anything other than off the bench which is no given even

Yep, there's a big IF surrounding the sea eagles' line-up.

my tv broke wrote:There was no real doubt about it but confirmation from mcguire himself that he will play lock, and has known tbat since last year. He also says hes dropped a couple of kilos and will do a little more ballplay/try use a bit more footwork/etc. Also says he'll play bigger mins.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/broncos/nrl-2017-josh-mcguire-confirmed-to-take-over-corey-parkers-no13-broncos-jersey/news-story/316a7c6aa6a3dcd97ef92b2f00e8e8a2

This does make him somewhat tempting.

Frank winterstein is another pushing for that 2rf spot. When dce was on fox during the 9s winterstein was the first name out of his mouth. Not that it means anything but hes certainly in contention

Also can anyone explain to me why Hess is so highly valued? I know he had some strong games last year and he played less than 10 games all year so he has a discount to go along with it. Is he going to get enough minutes to increase his price that much?

Matt Scott (40-50 Minutes), Scott Bolton (40 Minutes)
Ethan Lowe (80 Minutes), Jason Taumalolo (40-60 Minutes), Gavin Cooper (80 Minutes)

So on a good day there would be 120 Minutes to fill, and on a bad day 90 minutes to fill between the following bench guys.

Coen Hess, Patrick Kaufusi, Sam Hoare, Ben Spina, and John Asiata. Now assuming the last two guys aren't even on the bench. There is 120 minutes to 90 minutes between 3 of them. His average PPM through season games was 0.68 which included two games with tries. He had one 80 minute game where he scored a try and only racked up 49 points. I think 0.7ppm is more than a fair estimate on him when not scoring tries. If he plays 50 minutes he would average around 35 points a game which is above his BE of 29 points by around 5 points. That is me being generous with him minutes and PPM as well. With an initial price tag of $267 000 there isn't much upside potential to him to warrant how prevalent he is being picked. Now I know there aren't necessarily many options in and around his price tag as the only guys jumping out at the moment are N. Asofa-Solomona (Then you are taking a punt on the Storms forward pack), C. Sironen, J. Edwards, J. Arrow and they don't look great either. But some have substantial more upside at a glance than Hess.

Loomer wrote:I'm just waiting for DPP to put Mcguire in my team

Yeah, he'll fit nicely into the 2nd row.
The big question is if he'll improve fantasy wise... for me it's a wait and see

Random wrote:Also can anyone explain to me why Hess is so highly valued? I know he had some strong games last year and he played less than 10 games all year so he has a discount to go along with it. Is he going to get enough minutes to increase his price that much?

Matt Scott (40-50 Minutes), Scott Bolton (40 Minutes)
Ethan Lowe (80 Minutes), Jason Taumalolo (40-60 Minutes), Gavin Cooper (80 Minutes)

So on a good day there would be 120 Minutes to fill, and on a bad day 90 minutes to fill between the following bench guys.

Coen Hess, Patrick Kaufusi, Sam Hoare, Ben Spina, and John Asiata. Now assuming the last two guys aren't even on the bench. There is 120 minutes to 90 minutes between 3 of them. His average PPM through season games was 0.68 which included two games with tries. He had one 80 minute game where he scored a try and only racked up 49 points. I think 0.7ppm is more than a fair estimate on him when not scoring tries. If he plays 50 minutes he would average around 35 points a game which is above his BE of 29 points by around 5 points. That is me being generous with him minutes and PPM as well. With an initial price tag of $267 000 there isn't much upside potential to him to warrant how prevalent he is being picked. Now I know there aren't necessarily many options in and around his price tag as the only guys jumping out at the moment are N. Asofa-Solomona (Then you are taking a punt on the Storms forward pack), C. Sironen, J. Edwards, J. Arrow and they don't look great either. But some have substantial more upside at a glance than Hess.

There was an interview with Paul Green (I think. Might have been Thurston) saying that somehow, anyhow they were going to get Hess good minutes this season.

*edit* was the NQ assistant coach http://m.nrl.com/cowboys-plan-to-unleash-hess/tabid/10874/newsid/103266/default.aspx

I'm not completely sold either, but he's in my team at the moment pending whatever Melbourne do with theirback row.

rhinoceroo wrote:

There was an interview with Paul Green (I think. Might have been Thurston) saying that somehow, anyhow they were going to get Hess good minutes this season.

I'm not completely sold either, but he's in my team at the moment pending whatever Melbourne do with theirback row.

yeh, the talk was that Lowe would be moving into the middle to make way for Hess in the starting line-up, but it wouldn't be the first time pre-season talk hasn't come to fruition.

surmo13 wrote:

yeh, the talk was that Lowe would be moving into the middle to make way for Hess in the starting line-up, but it wouldn't be the first time pre-season talk hasn't come to fruition.

I think Hess will be a slow burn fantasy wise, unless someone gets injured

Hypothetical question...
Tyrone Roberts plays in the HLF's and Elgey isn't in the side for the Titans.
No other Rookie HLF's get a start anywhere. (Assuming Higano doesn't get a run as well.)

What will you do with two potentially dead positions? Run with HLF's likely to get a crack through the year. Would you still run with Elgey if he isn't named and there are no other options in the HLF's? Do you try and upgrade those positions to mid tier picks?

Going to put up some links real quick...

NRL Fantasy Fanatics Leagues Registration

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t402p80-2017-nrl-fantasy-leagues-registration-thread

Virtual Sports Fantatics Leagues Registration

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t401-2017-virtual-sports-dream-team-leagues-registration-thread

2017 Ladder Predictor

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t404-2017-ladder-predictor

Rate My Team Thread

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t396p100-2017-nrl-com-fantasy-rate-my-team-thread

surmo13 wrote:

yeh, the talk was that Lowe would be moving into the middle to make way for Hess in the starting line-up, but it wouldn't be the first time pre-season talk hasn't come to fruition.

Lowe could become really interesting if he moved into the middle. He was doing some spells there late last year too. He's a gun but has screwed me numerous times over the last couple of seasons.

Random wrote:Hypothetical question...
Tyrone Roberts plays in the HLF's and Elgey isn't in the side for the Titans.
No other Rookie HLF's get a start anywhere. (Assuming Higano doesn't get a run as well.)

What will you do with two potentially dead positions? Run with HLF's likely to get a crack through the year. Would you still run with Elgey if he isn't named and there are no other options in the HLF's? Do you try and upgrade those positions to mid tier picks?

Would probably run 1 gun 2 mid and Elgey

Random wrote:Also can anyone explain to me why Hess is so highly valued? I know he had some strong games last year and he played less than 10 games all year so he has a discount to go along with it. Is he going to get enough minutes to increase his price that much?

Matt Scott (40-50 Minutes), Scott Bolton (40 Minutes)
Ethan Lowe (80 Minutes), Jason Taumalolo (40-60 Minutes), Gavin Cooper (80 Minutes)

So on a good day there would be 120 Minutes to fill, and on a bad day 90 minutes to fill between the following bench guys.

Coen Hess, Patrick Kaufusi, Sam Hoare, Ben Spina, and John Asiata. Now assuming the last two guys aren't even on the bench. There is 120 minutes to 90 minutes between 3 of them. His average PPM through season games was 0.68 which included two games with tries. He had one 80 minute game where he scored a try and only racked up 49 points. I think 0.7ppm is more than a fair estimate on him when not scoring tries. If he plays 50 minutes he would average around 35 points a game which is above his BE of 29 points by around 5 points. That is me being generous with him minutes and PPM as well. With an initial price tag of $267 000 there isn't much upside potential to him to warrant how prevalent he is being picked. Now I know there aren't necessarily many options in and around his price tag as the only guys jumping out at the moment are N. Asofa-Solomona (Then you are taking a punt on the Storms forward pack), C. Sironen, J. Edwards, J. Arrow and they don't look great either. But some have substantial more upside at a glance than Hess.

Firstly with Tamou and Hannant no longer with the team some minutes have been freed up in the pack. No one knows how they will be distributed but surely there will be some value in the Cowboys pack, it is just a matter of making the correct pick

The bench is likely to be made up of Hampton, Hess, Asiata and one of Kaufusi, Hoare, Spina. Using the returning starts average minutes from last season (Scott 46, Granville 61, Bolton 35, Lowe 78, Cooper 79, Taumalolo 50) lets assume a few things. Lowe and Cooper will be playing 80 most weeks so lets lock them in with 80 each. Scott isn't going to increase in minutes as he gets older so lets leave him at 46. Granville will play a similar number of minutes at 61. Bolton and Taumalolo might see 5 minutes extra each so lets put them at 40 and 55 respectively. Hampton will come on and give Granville a rest with 19 minutes. Asiata was playing 25 minutes a game last year this might move to 30. The Cowboy's 4th prop rarely played more than 25 minutes. This gives a starting lineup of:

Scott 46
Granville 61
Bolton 40
Lowe 80
Cooper 80
Taumalolo 55

and a bench of:

Hampton 19
Hess 45
Asiata 30
Kaufusi/Spina/Hoare 24

Hess's value will come down to where he spends those 45 minutes. On the edge and I think he is over priced. In the middle I think he is under priced

Been lurking the warriors forum and someone posted how the warriors top squad has been training. Mannering has been at #12 with lisone #13. Lillyman and Thompson have injury problems, both apparently 50/50 to be right for rnd 1. Bunty Afoa has been next cab off the rank in the forwards.

my tv broke wrote:Been lurking the warriors forum and someone posted how the warriors top squad has been training. Mannering has been at #12 with lisone #13. Lillyman and Thompson have injury problems, both apparently 50/50 to be right for rnd 1. Bunty Afoa has been next cab off the rank in the forwards.

This was my initial thought and fear after I selected Mannering as first pick in the ultimate league.

Milchcow wrote:Surely that Mannering at 12 would just be for if/when Bodene/Hoffman are injured and otherwise he'd go back to lock?

That is what happened last year anyway - played a few games in 2nd row to cover injury but mostly was at lock.

yeah 100%. would be good to get more info on lillyman/thompson though.

Milchcow wrote:Surely that Mannering at 12 would just be for if/when Bodene/Hoffman are injured and otherwise he'd go back to lock?

That is what happened last year anyway - played a few games in 2nd row to cover injury but mostly was at lock.

Yeah, did indeed happened a few times last year. Sounds like Kearny might not change things up too much.