2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 9 - TLT edition

Krump wrote:
It's a larger sample size than the people picking him are using.

If we accept my tv brokes premise that we can cast that one game aside because the weather was ridiculous which seems fair, then pretty good scores overall for a teenager across that 3 game sample.

The people who are picking him aren't basing that selection on a 3 or 4 game sample size from 2015 when he was a teenager, they're basing it on seeing what the guy did last year where he looked incredible on the wing and considering what he could do now with the extra opportunities of playing at fullback, combined with another year in his development.

You can't just base everything on past performance, especially for a guy who is younger and now moving positions. Selecting him is based on how you think those things will alter his scores going forward. But again the point is trying to discredit him for "yo yo scoring" from 2015 over 4 games as a teenager when he'd played like 10 NRL games seems a bit redundant compared to making an educated prediction of how he will fare based on his more recent performances, of which we have a big sample to look at. He doesn't need to have been at fullback all last season to get an idea of how you think he will go there. The speed, strength, acceleration, footwork, he's shown it all off plenty now.

One last question (I think), JWH vs Wallace. What's their respective PPM?

Fortitude wrote:Im interested in peoples thoughts about starting sides and CTs.

Risk v Reward sort of analysis on options.

Option 1. Starting with 4 cheapies. Idris, Cotric, Talakai, Kelly etc.

Reward, it frees up cash to improve areas that are more consistent scorers.
Reward: Potential to make money
Reward: They wont lose money, which gives you time to identify who is a better buy if you got it wrong.
Risk: They fail. Cost trades and time to get team back to strength.
Risk: Slow start

Option 2: mix of cheap and expensive.
All of the above risks and rewards and:

You pay 350K+ for a centre i.e Walker Turbo.

Reward: they may be a set and forget, make 40+ a week don't lose cash. saves trades.
Risk: they tank, lose money and cost you a trade.

Option 3

Go for proven scores in CT. Croker.

There is no croker for 6 weeks, refer to option 2 and 3.


What are people weighing up when choosing their CT oprions

Given the wealth of cheapies at centre I'd probably have gone 4x cheapies if Turbo wasn't DPP. But he is and I expect him to have a fantastic season so I'm all over it. I think I can get an elite fullback as a centre for reasonable price.

Obviously he could not pan out the way I'm predicting and that fails spectacularly, but that's the call I'm making.

Vestid wrote:

I did option 1 last year, paid for it, and told myself I was doing option 3 this year. With all the cheap CTRs this year I've gone option 2.

My plan was to go D.Walker and Smat with Idris and Cotric sitting outside the 17. After yesterdays reshuffle, ive moved Smat to 2rf. and added Kelly.

It will be interesting to see if Holmes is actually cut from the list when the squad goes from 21 to 19 at 8pm this evening.. I reckon he's still a fair chance of playing..

Fortitude wrote:

My plan was to go D.Walker and Smat with Idris and Cotric sitting outside the 17. After yesterdays reshuffle, ive moved Smat to 2rf. and added Kelly.

I'm going Turbo and Talakai

rhinoceroo wrote:Whilst I love that nobody seems to be running with Mannering and I am, is there something I'm missing? Are there real doubts about how Kearney uses the interchange?

I had him in my squad until I saw the Dragons team list then I went with JDB. Mannering will probably be one of my first upgrades

A reminder when so many are here, if you want to join the autofill league with your WAGS team for a different type of challenge, the details are here.
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t436-wags-autofill-league

Seems like the general concensus is that Brailey will score around 30-35. What are we expecting from Elgey?

SoylentGreen wrote:Seems like the general concensus is that Brailey will score around 30-35. What are we expecting from Elgey?

probably the same, though Elgey has a more potential to score a 50 imo

Regulator wrote:

If we accept my tv brokes premise that we can cast that one game aside because the weather was ridiculous which seems fair, then pretty good scores overall for a teenager across that 3 game sample.

The people who are picking him aren't basing that selection on a 3 or 4 game sample size from 2015 when he was a teenager, they're basing it on seeing what the guy did last year where he looked incredible on the wing and considering what he could do now with the extra opportunities of playing at fullback, combined with another year in his development.

You can't just base everything on past performance, especially for a guy who is younger and now moving positions. Selecting him is based on how you think those things will alter his scores going forward. But again the point is trying to discredit him for "yo yo scoring" from 2015 over 4 games as a teenager when he'd played like 10 NRL games seems a bit redundant compared to making an educated prediction of how he will fare based on his more recent performances, of which we have a big sample to look at. He doesn't need to have been at fullback all last season to get an idea of how you think he will go there. The speed, strength, acceleration, footwork, he's shown it all off plenty now.

I'm not arguing those points. The fact is though you asked a question about a guy who is unlikely to even play round 1 and it was not only answered but backed up with proof, you can't just ignore those points because you feel he is going to improve.
If he was cheaper or even guaranteed to play rd1 I could understand the selection but the way it stands I wouldn't put him anywhere near my 25.

Fortitude wrote:Im interested in peoples thoughts about starting sides and CTs.

Risk v Reward sort of analysis on options.

Option 1. Starting with 4 cheapies. Idris, Cotric, Talakai, Kelly etc.

Reward, it frees up cash to improve areas that are more consistent scorers.
Reward: Potential to make money
Reward: They wont lose money, which gives you time to identify who is a better buy if you got it wrong.
Risk: They fail. Cost trades and time to get team back to strength.
Risk: Slow start

Option 2: mix of cheap and expensive.
All of the above risks and rewards and:

You pay 350K+ for a centre i.e Walker Turbo.

Reward: they may be a set and forget, make 40+ a week don't lose cash. saves trades.
Risk: they tank, lose money and cost you a trade.

Option 3

Go for proven scores in CT. Croker.

There is no croker for 6 weeks, refer to option 2 and 3.


What are people weighing up when choosing their CT oprions

Very tempting to go the first option but i think i'll settle on smat with a cheapy

I got to admit I'm a little worried Kearney might give Mannering the CP13 treatment and cut his minutes but way I see it if that happens I have room to swap him out for anyone else and see who's in good form

Loomer wrote:Bateman vs Soliola besides price difference Go!

The trouble with bateman is he is relying on whitehead playing in the centres.

How long do we know that is going to happen for? Crocker already back running. As soon as Bateman moves back to the bench then he is probably a sell

So...

Option 1:

E. Taylor + J. Maloney

vs

Option 2:

C. Sironen + C. Norman

Graham + Sio

Vs

BLaw + Tedesco

Option 2?

Milchcow wrote:

If he was anywhere but hooker then he'd be an autopick.

Hooker is a valuable position though. Even if Brailey does well (and I'm putting a 35 average as doing well), you'll probably still need to find $150-200k to upgrade him at some point.
And if he doesn't do well - you are stuffed.

If McInnes/McCullough fire early like Friend last year - will you be able to get them in to take advantage of it if you have Brailey?

if brailey avgs 35 thats 200k in the bank. i have kfaufs next best at 170k if he avgs 40. next are elgey and hayne 130k if they avg 35.
these are my top performers. could be wrong, might be missing some guys or overestimating these ones but you gotta make some assumptions at the start

by going with out braily you will miss out on too much money at the start of the season and you will be hoping that another cash cow
comes along who makes 200k, which is no small feat. they will usually have to start and play 80 mins (garvey,parcell,holland,barba)

if the goal is to make 2.5-3mil during the season, a player who makes 200k (without a trade mind you) is like gold dust.

but maybe he avgs 25 and takes us all for a ride, even then, thats still 100k.

Anyone considering Mitchell at CTR? How has he scored there previously?

Krump wrote:
I'm not arguing those points. The fact is though you asked a question about a guy who is unlikely to even play round 1 and it was not only answered but backed up with proof, you can't just ignore those points because you feel he is going to improve.
If he was cheaper or even guaranteed to play rd1 I could understand the selection but the way it stands I wouldn't put him anywhere near my 25.

I don't really consider 3/4 scores as a teenager when he was 19 when he'd played 10 NRL games as proof of "yo yo scores" lol.

I can ignore those "points" because A they were from 2015, B the sample is so small, C they don't even really back up the yo yo scores point. Two strong scores out of 3 if we cast the crap weather game aside. All the best backs can have a quiet one.

He already has improved dramatically from the player that put those 2015 scores up, anyone who watches has seen this.

Why does the fact he is going to miss round one matter exactly? this has what to do with these yo yo scores and Gutherson being a better player than him exactly?

I was told his price reflects these yo yo scores, but apparently these yo yo scores were just 3/4 games in 2015 so I would say the impact of those on his price is about 0.

I was told "too many" yo yo scores, too many based on a sample of 3/4 games in 2015 as a teenager? righto, great proof.

I do enjoy your "you can't ignore this proof" argument while you kick off with "I'm not arguing those points" to just cast away what I've said though lol.

Goondalf wrote:Anyone considering Mitchell at CTR? How has he scored there previously?

has never started the game there but I reckon he's a good option. (though I'm going Walker myself, at this stage)

You could very easily talk yourself into Mitchell. If roosters go back to a top 4 side as everyone expects then he's bound to get plenty of attacking football and we all know he loves to have a crack at the try line. He could very well become a 400k to 450k+ player