2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 14

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Yes thats correct. So say a player is priced at a 25 average. After one game scoring 35 their price is 5/15 35 and 10/15 25. After two games scoring scoring 35 then you have 9/15 based on 35 and 6/15 based on 25. It's more complex then that but that is the basis of it

wolfking wrote:Fuck it, I should have gone with my gut with Nofo as I finished with him last year and knew he would become a gun.  Gonna roll the dice.  Gonna go;

Saifiti - Stimson
Python - Nofo

Gives me that extra at the back too in case Hayne spits the dummy or doesn't play next week like the rumors are suggesting.  Dumb trades?

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Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Awesome mate, thanks for that. But on second thoughts are you sure?

Looking at Suli for example, he was priced at around 14.5 ave @ $138k. He then scored 52.

So using the magic 9475 number he should therefore be currently priced at 1/3 * 52 * 9475 + 2/3 * 14.5 * 9475 ~= 256k  but instead he is actually priced at 167k.

Working backwards it seems more likely that the 1 game he has played is given a 1/15 weighting in which case he would be priced at 1/15 * 52 * 9475 + 14/15 * 14.5 * 9475 ~= 162k

thoughts?

Bren wrote:

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wolfking wrote:

Cheers Bren.  I wish there was a better forward cashie around that price but what do you do.  I think Nofo is worth the money, gonna have a huge year I think.  I think the Tigers in general might play finals.  End result would be both Teddy and Nofo in my team.

Bren wrote:

I had Nofo last year and I also have him this year in Ultimate League draft so watch him closely each week. His form looks to have carried on from last year. Serious POD.

wolfking wrote:Got him in the L3 Ultimate league too.  Got him in my work league too haha.

Neillo wrote:Okay....trying to get my head round the BE's of people and how past scores affect things.....

Say if someone got 20pts in rnd one and then 60 in round two would they then have the exact same price and BE for round 3 as if they got 60pts in round one and then 20 in round two?

I wasn't sure if the round one scores have set them somehow on a higher level than any subsequent scores to come

I realise this probably makes zero sense.....hopefully someone is on the same wavelength as me and can decipher it for others ;-)

pm888 wrote:thanks boys, the price predictor makes more sense now that i know to fill in the blanks with the players priced avg instead of putting 0's in there. for those that struggled with it like me, this how the price predicotr would look for brailey

Week 1 $138,000 15 15 15 15 38 $157,000

and if he scores 40 this week

Week 2 $157,000 15 15 15 40 38 $187,000

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

It's more complicated then that
0.75*old price+MN*0.25*((S1*5+S2*4+S3*3+S4*2+S5)/15) gets you pretty close

wolfking wrote:Anyone know anything about Stimson?

Krump wrote:Have a look at posts 4 and 5 here RT
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-stats-spreadsheets-etc-break-evens-for-2017-now-included

Milchcow wrote:

If you are using my price predictor - the only fields you should change are those in blue.

Everything else should be calculated automatically.

chaz4173 wrote:Hey fellas, first time poster here. Just looking for opinions on who i should trade out of my team first out of saifiti/Pythian (or both). The obvious selections would be moga and wallace. Somehow in my mind I decided to start the year with both jwh and saifiti over wallace. Ive seen plenty of people saying saifiti for wallace but im not sure wallace is worth the trade in as hes not a keeper and i want to grab browmich when he bottoms out. The next best option looks like musgrove. Tearing my hair as as too whom i should bring in. Cheers

Smith/Brailey
Fifita/Saifiti/JWH/Papalii
JDB/Gallen/Smat/Sironen/Kaufasi
Lamb/Norman/Elgey/Jacks
Talakai/Kelly/Idris/Suli
RTS/Hayne/Gutherson/Cotric/Pythian