2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2

Didn't realise Fifita had offseason surgery

Is he at risk of missing the start of season? Might have to re-think him starting the season for me

Welshy wrote:on the Alvaro debate, he will be a suck it and see, been stung with back end season minute hikes before in the LAM chronicles.... I like Napa to rebound this year i think he carries little risk with potential to go back to being a 40+ scorer (priced at 30)

SST is intriguing me, kid is an animal but another whose minutes and role I need to see before taking the plunge

I'm actually looking at Liu if he gets the starting lock gig. The word is maybe SST won't be at lock. The 8 games Liu started at lock in 2017 he averaged 44.5 plus he's a handy dpp.

Alfie wrote:

Would you start with Cogger if he was starting HB for the dogs?

Absolutely. If Cleeland gets the 6 I'll go him as well as Foran doesn't rack up the KM.

Alfie wrote:

He's one of the most injury prone players in the NRL I must remind you

I'm just off getting Hunt. but if I boot Leilua I'll have enough for a gun.

White Lightning wrote:

I'm actually looking at Liu if he gets the starting lock gig. The word is maybe SST won't be at lock. The 8 games Liu started at lock in 2017 he averaged 44.5 plus he's a handy dpp.

Another who I would need to see theirs minutes and role in the early season, reason I like Napa is he already gets decent minutes and they are pretty set, he just needs to reproduce the form he showed the 2 years prior

Alvaro and Evans seem like PPM heroes that manage to burn me every year. It's a no from me. Latu is pretty much guarenteed if he grabs a spot in the 17. Too cheap not to make cash especially with James now on the edge and Wallace out suspended

Welshy wrote:

Another who I would need to see theirs minutes and role in the early season, reason I like Napa is he already gets decent minutes and they are pretty set, he just needs to reproduce the form he showed the 2 years prior

Is he aware of how shit he was fantasy-wise though. I'm not confident he feels like he needs to improve his game drastically. So many missed tackles and his workload went down alot

Warriors wrote:

Croft and Leilua are still pretty big risks given their prices. Croft (rotation and competition for spot) and Leilua (just general dumb c*** play and suspension worry). Not sure they are worth gambling on for all three of Lodge, Evans and Latu in your team (probably all average between 30-35 realistically at best). This could be 20 points behind some FRF each game. I will probably only have three FRF's in my squad so realistically will only be room for 1 of Lodge, Latu and Evans. Probably all hit about 10 points above their price.

I got rid of Croft as soon as I confirmed Bellamy's rotation plan. BJ I'm not so sure about getting rid of, but he's the first cut at this stage. I might upgrade one of the FRF if I free some cash, but they do have some decent stats. It's a small sample size (12 games), but Lodge has a PPM of almost 0.9 with room to improve in MT and ER. Evans has a PPM just under 1 and is probably set to pick up the starting role at the Eels (hopefully with a utility on the bench). Latu seems the least likely to score well, but is set for big minutes at least in the first two rounds with Wallace suspended and James moving to the edge. I reckon they will each go for 35-40, perhaps even higher. With that said I might bring in JBrom in the hopes 2017 was just an aberration, but he burnt me last year so it'll take some convincing.

Alfie wrote:

Is he aware of how shit he was fantasy-wise though. I'm not confident he feels like he needs to improve his game drastically. So many missed tackles and his workload went down alot

haha doubtful, What I'm saying is year previous he averaged 42, year before that 39, his role hasn't really changed he just had a down year fantasy wise, he has proven he can hit those scores, priced at 30 I don't think he can go any lower, might be a wasted trade but I'm willing to take a punt

I’m a one eyed cowboys fan but I am surprised that there isn’t more talk of Thurston as a genuine option this year given his low starting price....
Are people concerned about his injury or could it be the fact Morgan killed it at the end of last year?

Kalkadoon Warrior wrote:I’m a one eyed cowboys fan but I am surprised that there isn’t more talk of Thurston as a genuine option this year given his low starting price....
Are people concerned about his injury or could it be the fact Morgan killed it at the end of last year?

I'm strongly considering JT, likely to start with him given the Brodie Croft rotation plan

Just had a look at J-Brom's average & offloads in 2016 & 2017:
2017 average = 36.5
2017 offloads = 15

2016 average = 50.9
2016 offloads = 47

his run metres (2017=2,535 - 2016=3,473) & minutes played (2017=999 - 2016=1,414) also dramatically decreased from 2016 to 2017. Mind you in 2017 he missed 7 games & 2016 he only missed 2 game.
My gut feel is J-Brom is on the decline even after adjusting for the 5 extra games he missed. Sure he could get extra minutes with McLean gone & if NAS plays some of the game on the edge but last year when I watched J-Brom play he failed the eye test.

Kalkadoon Warrior wrote:I’m a one eyed cowboys fan but I am surprised that there isn’t more talk of Thurston as a genuine option this year given his low starting price....
Are people concerned about his injury or could it be the fact Morgan killed it at the end of last year?

He's in my team atm. What I like about him is he won't play origin & plays round 13. I do have doubts though as they have a tough first 4 games & will his shoulder hold up & the Morgan factor.

White Lightning wrote:

He's in my team atm. What I like about him is he won't play origin & plays round 13. I do have doubts though as they have a tough first 4 games & will his shoulder hold up & the Morgan factor.

JT will decrease Morgans scores, not the other way round

White Lightning wrote:Just had a look at J-Brom's average & offloads in 2016 & 2017:
2017 average = 36.5
2017 offloads = 15

2016 average = 50.9
2016 offloads = 47

his run metres (2017=2,535 - 2016=3,473) & minutes played (2017=999 - 2016=1,414) also dramatically decreased from 2016 to 2017. Mind you in 2017 he missed 7 games & 2016 he only missed 2 game.
My gut feel is J-Brom is on the decline even after adjusting for the 5 extra games he missed. Sure he could get extra minutes with McLean gone & if NAS plays some of the game on the edge but last year when I watched J-Brom play he failed the eye test.

He was poor last year, but he was playing through a load of injuries, he just didn't look like the same player but I'm a sucker for ex fantasy guns and a 14 point drop off is huge, I'd back him to recover at least 5 of those points at the bare minimum this year

Where is @mearcats I'm missing our debates on fallen fantasy guns

Welshy wrote:

JT will decrease Morgans scores, not the other way round

What concerns me is their game sharing. We always prefer a half that is the dominant half. However JT's price is hard to ignore & that is a big selling point.

J Broms battle is not a physical one.... he’s clearly got a lot of crap going on and was definitely not over it all year. Perhaps a new year will bring a new attitude.

Kalkadoon Warrior wrote:J Broms battle is not a physical one.... he’s clearly got a lot of crap going on and was definitely not over it all year. Perhaps a new year will bring a new attitude.

I hope so. I also remember 2-3 years ago Smith & J-Brom use to combine very well. Smith would dart out of dummy half, run to the line & pop a pass to J-Brom at the defensive line. I hardly saw that combo in action in 2017.

White Lightning wrote:

What concerns me is their game sharing. We always prefer a half that is the dominant half. However JT's price is hard to ignore & that is a big selling point.

Morgans average shot up last year because of all the extra KM he got with JT out, he only averaged 87km a game with JT in 2016 and 89km a game with JT last year, plus all the play went through him

Now it should revert back to the norm with JT the dominant kicker, and shared attacking duties

Whether JT can get back to 50+ again after being another year older, after missing 19 game and surgery is the question, priced at 44 I'd think he will at least match his last 2 seasons average of 48

Kalkadoon Warrior wrote:J Broms battle is not a physical one.... he’s clearly got a lot of crap going on and was definitely not over it all year. Perhaps a new year will bring a new attitude.

You could see that, JBrom has been a top 3 prop in rugby league for a few years, he was a shadow of that last year and his fantasy form suffered with him

I'm backing JBrom to be back pushing for that no.1 prop spot and reclaiming his fantasy glory