2018 NRL Dream Team Virtual Sports/Sports Deck (VSDT) Part 1

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hey Milch, are you going to produce spreadsheets again this year that show the forecasted price changes given various assumptions around future scores? Exceptionally useful stuff for this comp, particularly these first couple of rounds.

Cheers

Milchcow wrote:

Plan to.

Won't be doing anything this week though with no price changes

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Great score Aardvark BTW! I like the Griffen trade. Not sure about Williams. I have Croft too, and Im inclined to give him 1 more week. I also have KNik though which I feel could me a more urgent situation.

Im intrigued by Williams too - keen to hear what others have to say.

Also interested in thoughts on Waqa Blake. Is he worth considering at all?

Thx mate yeah not sure on Williams yet just floating it out there ATM would be great to hear what others think but pretty sure Croft is gone from my squad its either him or Kahu.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:Great score AR!

Not a bad start for me either, just cracking the 800, which psychologically looks so much better than the 790-odd i was hovering around....

Generally I'm with Milch and tend to avoid trading this round for two reasons:

1. You get a second look in this game; and
2. Many times, one poor game is purely an anomaly (particularly with halves/backs) and a player you trade out goes on to pump out big scores in Rd 2/3 and bites you on the arsen - similarly a bloke you think is gonna have a huge year after one good game decides to play like shite for the remainder of the season.

So, if I had Croft or KNIk or one of the outside backs that scored poorly I'd be holding for another week.
Similarly, I wouldn't be rushing in Williams or Waqa Blake just yet.

Having said all of that and without checking the minutes played yet, I feel I stuffed up on one maybe two forwards by selecting Klemmer and JGraham.

I'll reserve judgement until I can find the minutes they both played but if low, chances of it being an anomaly or slim, so I may be tempted to get in a week early.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Actually I may be able to answer at least part of my own question. The VSDT site suggests that if Kennar averages 65 by round 3 his price rise will be 124k after round 3. Which is 1/4 of the price rise you'd get if he average 65 for good.

Im not sure if that 25% figure holds true for all scores and all base prices but it may be a bit of a ball park guide.

The point Im getting at, or at least trying to prove one way or another is that if you wanna benefit financially (in game) from players price rises, you wanna get in either by round three or at the latest round 4.  

In the Kennar example, they have him projected to average about 53 by the looks, meaning he'll go on to be worth 620k (+360k on base price) and 124k of that made after week 3, a further 90k week 4, and the remaining ~145k over the next 6 weeks.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:Great score AR!

Not a bad start for me either, just cracking the 800, which psychologically looks so much better than the 790-odd i was hovering around....

Generally I'm with Milch and tend to avoid trading this round for two reasons:

1. You get a second look in this game; and
2. Many times, one poor game is purely an anomaly (particularly with halves/backs) and a player you trade out goes on to pump out big scores in Rd 2/3 and bites you on the arsen - similarly a bloke you think is gonna have a huge year after one good game decides to play like shite for the remainder of the season.

So, if I had Croft or KNIk or one of the outside backs that scored poorly I'd be holding for another week.
Similarly, I wouldn't be rushing in Williams or Waqa Blake just yet.

Having said all of that and without checking the minutes played yet, I feel I stuffed up on one maybe two forwards by selecting Klemmer and JGraham.

I'll reserve judgement until I can find the minutes they both played but if low, chances of it being an anomaly or slim, so I may be tempted to get in a week early.

Milchcow wrote:
I always max trade the first few weeks.

Its your only chance to get in boom cash cows at starting price.
And only chance to ditch your dud round 1 choices before they bleed cash.

Not concerned about low scored from teddy as he'll come good. Same with JT

Croft I might ditch - I wasn't as comfortable picking him in this comp compared to Fantasy. SJ looks like he'll be fine whatever the Warriors do this year.

Rochow's 46 was the lowest score in my 2RF they can all stay. just a matter of tweaking the FRF and WFB/CTR choices to maximise cash generation for the next month or 2.

Pacey's Best wrote:OSM, you'd probably get a better guide if you saw all the minutes from the forwards and bench.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

Thanks buddy - although probably complicates the equation because they both got expected/decent minutes.

Out of interest where did you get this info (do NRL.com fantasy still do this)?

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:

Same approach here Milchy Trade hard early then close my eyes and cross my fingers, any idea who ya might swap Croft for , I  am looking at Williams at the moment.

Milchcow wrote:

Think I want SJ. Munster ands Cody Walker are also under consideration, but SJ has been solid for a few years now.

Don't trust Williams for security.

SJ is a season long pick and stick.  Can just leave Thurston and SJ in my halves and not trade unless injured. Use my trades getting forwards and backs in order.

Milchcow wrote:
People complain about the Fantasy websites horrific lack of features this year

But I will NEVER get used to, or appreciate, the VSDT site design where the page where you can see your team and make changes, does not show you your current score for the round.
Drives me absolutely mental.

Milchcow wrote:
766 first up.

Tedesco my 2nd lowest scorer.

Initial trade plan is to try and get SJ in for Croft. Potentially funded by getting Griffin in as a downgrade

That would leave Katoa in NOR for a week at least
with Kennar and Thompson a fair bit above base price, not sure its worth rushing them in - this week's scores only count for 1 price rise so might have a 2nd look and pick th ebest of them next week.