2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 3

So here's some thoughts on not starting with Cam Smith from a fantasy rookie. For reference, last year was my first year, I managed to finish in the top 50 (which I believe was more luck than anything), and I didn't have Cam Smith in my team for the whole year.

As I see it, the main aim of any team selections in Preseason is to score the most points possible for the lowest price possible (let's call this concept value). Therefore, I think in positions where there is lots of value available it's important to take it, and then focus your early gun choices in positions where there isn't much value.

Cam Smith is undeniably the best scorer (and therefore captaincy choice) in NRL fantasy. But for almost $1M, he'll chew up roughly 1/10th of your cap for literally 0 value. For that money you could almost get Cook AND Licha. Personally, I'd rather get them and then pick up Fifita, since I think there is much less value available in the FRFs.

Last year I started Macca and Brailey. Definitely a bit lucky, since I expected Macca to be value but didn't expect him to match Smith's scoring over the first 12 rds. Over Origin I moved to Friend and McInnes, who I finished the year with. I had intended to bring in Smith for the backend of the year, but a few wasted trades early prevented me from doing that.

Someone now really mentioned yet is Aidan Guerra

Last year he rotated between edge forward and lock rotation.

As an edge forward he averaged 54 points in 76 minutes. 
2016 he averaged 48.4 as 2nd rowrer
2015 he averaged 48.9

Priced at 43.5

If he secures a 2nd row spot at the Knights there is value there. Knights are a bit stacked in 2nd row now with Fitzgibbon, Buhrer and Guerra going for 2 spots (assuming Barnett plays lock)

Closer look at Kane Evans

Evans has played 4 seasons in the NRL, for fantasy averages of 18.5, 30.5, 32.5 and 22.
Priced at 22 this year.

His best run of form was at the start of the 2016 season, when the Roosters were missing Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner.

He averaged 36 points in 38 minutes during the first 9 rounds (no tries to boost the average)
Consistent too with all scores in the 30s, except 1 (59 points in round 7)

That is the sort of form people are after, because in the past 18 months Evans has struggled to average more than the low 20s

In 2017 he only scored more than 30 once.
His gametime crashed and he only played 14 games, with a paltry average of 22 points.

This makes him affordable for 2018. But will the change of clubs allow him to hit his potential?

He'll be competing with Mannah and Alvaro for a starting spot. Even if he comes off the bench, the possibility is there to get enough game time  to score well.


He has burnt many a fantasy player in the past with expectations of greatness, only to disappoint.

I think if you are expecting anything other than a low 30s average from him, you need to reevaluate, and make sure you are picking on more than just a hope he'll perform.
Low 30s puts him on the cusp of usefulness, so you may want him in you team anyway, and then hope for a pleasant surprise.

Moose wrote:Have 471k to fill my last reserve spot. Can be any position. Suggestions?

If you have that much cap left it has to be a Rooster.

Milchcow wrote:Closer look at Kane Evans

Evans has played 4 seasons in the NRL, for fantasy averages of 18.5, 30.5, 32.5 and 22.
Priced at 22 this year.

His best run of form was at the start of the 2016 season, when the Roosters were missing Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner.

He averaged 36 points in 38 minutes during the first 9 rounds (no tries to boost the average)
Consistent too with all scores in the 30s, except 1 (59 points in round 7)

That is the sort of form people are after, because in the past 18 months Evans has struggled to average more than the low 20s

In 2017 he only scored more than 30 once.
His gametime crashed and he only played 14 games, with a paltry average of 22 points.

This makes him affordable for 2018. But will the change of clubs allow him to hit his potential?

He'll be competing with Mannah and Alvaro for a starting spot. Even if he comes off the bench, the possibility is there to get enough game time  to score well.


He has burnt many a fantasy player in the past with expectations of greatness, only to disappoint.

I think if you are expecting anything other than a low 30s average from him, you need to reevaluate, and make sure you are picking on more than just a hope he'll perform.
Low 30s puts him on the cusp of usefulness, so you may want him in you team anyway, and then hope for a pleasant surprise.

From memory they were mainly single stint games as well? If he starts he is in my team.

I still had him for that 59 where everyone was smart and dumped him a month prior! Because of that I probably have a soft spot for him

Vanish wrote:So here's some thoughts on not starting with Cam Smith from a fantasy rookie. For reference, last year was my first year, I managed to finish in the top 50 (which I believe was more luck than anything), and I didn't have Cam Smith in my team for the whole year.

As I see it, the main aim of any team selections in Preseason is to score the most points possible for the lowest price possible (let's call this concept value). Therefore, I think in positions where there is lots of value available it's important to take it, and then focus your early gun choices in positions where there isn't much value.

Cam Smith is undeniably the best scorer (and therefore captaincy choice) in NRL fantasy. But for almost $1M, he'll chew up roughly 1/10th of your cap for literally 0 value. For that money you could almost get Cook AND Licha. Personally, I'd rather get them and then pick up Fifita, since I think there is much less value available in the FRFs.

Last year I started Macca and Brailey. Definitely a bit lucky, since I expected Macca to be value but didn't expect him to match Smith's scoring over the first 12 rds. Over Origin I moved to Friend and McInnes, who I finished the year with. I had intended to bring in Smith for the backend of the year, but a few wasted trades early prevented me from doing that.

You made done good decisions mate. There is an element of luck but good decision making and knowing NRL helps.

Why do I keep thinking you were on Sportal for a few years? Maybe there was another Vanish?

With this new fantasy model this year & with the bye period changes I think points rather than value is the way to go at the start of the season. Sure guys like Evans, Latu, Watson, B. Cartwright are great value but I don't think they'll score that well.

SI wrote:

You made done good decisions mate. There is an element of luck but good decision making and knowing NRL helps.

Why do I keep thinking you were on Sportal for a few years? Maybe there was another Vanish?

Thanks mate. Na, that wasn't me, so probably another Vanish.

Is it hopeful to think that Cook could match Smith if they were both guaranteed 80 min stints?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is it hopeful to think that Cook could match Smith if they were both guaranteed 80 min stints?

If Cook plays 80 minutes every week, he will go close to matching Smith

I don't think he will reliably play 80 minutes every week though.
If Souths lose a few, how long before Farah gets back into the team? Even if Farah stays away, Souths will likely have a utility around. 

It doesn't matter too much, as Cook only needs 60 minutes to be good enough for your team. Unless you are thinking of using Cook as captain, in which case I would be wary.

Milchcow wrote:Closer look at Kane Evans

Evans has played 4 seasons in the NRL, for fantasy averages of 18.5, 30.5, 32.5 and 22.
Priced at 22 this year.

His best run of form was at the start of the 2016 season, when the Roosters were missing Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner.

He averaged 36 points in 38 minutes during the first 9 rounds (no tries to boost the average)
Consistent too with all scores in the 30s, except 1 (59 points in round 7)

That is the sort of form people are after, because in the past 18 months Evans has struggled to average more than the low 20s

In 2017 he only scored more than 30 once.
His gametime crashed and he only played 14 games, with a paltry average of 22 points.

This makes him affordable for 2018. But will the change of clubs allow him to hit his potential?

He'll be competing with Mannah and Alvaro for a starting spot. Even if he comes off the bench, the possibility is there to get enough game time  to score well.


He has burnt many a fantasy player in the past with expectations of greatness, only to disappoint.

I think if you are expecting anything other than a low 30s average from him, you need to reevaluate, and make sure you are picking on more than just a hope he'll perform.
Low 30s puts him on the cusp of usefulness, so you may want him in you team anyway, and then hope for a pleasant surprise.

As a Roosters diehard I have watched him closely over the seasons. He has the unenviable talent of forcing the pass when it is not on
thus rewarding the opposition the pill. He falls in tackles and is good for a penalty or two. The Roosters let him go for a good reason.
Mannah and Alvaro would have the the starting spot unless Parra's excellent coach loses the plot. I believe he will be another Matagi
less the ferocious expressions of intended violence.

SI wrote:

You made done good decisions mate. There is an element of luck but good decision making and knowing NRL helps.

Why do I keep thinking you were on Sportal for a few years? Maybe there was another Vanish?

Not thinking of Valleysearch?

Vanish wrote:So here's some thoughts on not starting with Cam Smith from a fantasy rookie. For reference, last year was my first year, I managed to finish in the top 50 (which I believe was more luck than anything), and I didn't have Cam Smith in my team for the whole year.

As I see it, the main aim of any team selections in Preseason is to score the most points possible for the lowest price possible (let's call this concept value). Therefore, I think in positions where there is lots of value available it's important to take it, and then focus your early gun choices in positions where there isn't much value.

Cam Smith is undeniably the best scorer (and therefore captaincy choice) in NRL fantasy. But for almost $1M, he'll chew up roughly 1/10th of your cap for literally 0 value. For that money you could almost get Cook AND Licha. Personally, I'd rather get them and then pick up Fifita, since I think there is much less value available in the FRFs.

Last year I started Macca and Brailey. Definitely a bit lucky, since I expected Macca to be value but didn't expect him to match Smith's scoring over the first 12 rds. Over Origin I moved to Friend and McInnes, who I finished the year with. I had intended to bring in Smith for the backend of the year, but a few wasted trades early prevented me from doing that.

Makes a lot of sense. Last year I was one of those Smith owners cursing guys like you! I'm also thinking no Smith this year. One thing you didn't mention is not just scoring higher than their price, but by extension making more money. If the cap is $9 400 000 and your 21 players on average score 10 higher than their price, when those players max out they are now worth $12 475 000. But if $917 000 of your cap (Smith) is not increasing as I expect, when your players max out they are worth $12 329 000, a difference of $146 000. But there are many factors, captaincy, trades, points value and cash making and good arguments can be made for both strategies.

Viliame Kikau is in a lot of teams. What sort of role are you expecting him to get next season, or is he just a place holder for best rookie in TLT.

In 9 games last year he only scored more than 20 twice.

He scored 34 points in 64 minutes the week Peter Wallace got injured early and he had to play big minutes.

I can't see him starting, is he going to get that much of a bench role?

Milchcow wrote:Viliame Kikau is in a lot of teams. What sort of role are you expecting him to get next season, or is he just a place holder for best rookie in TLT.

In 9 games last year he only scored more than 20 twice.

He scored 34 points in 64 minutes the week Peter Wallace got injured early and he had to play big minutes.

I can't see him starting, is he going to get that much of a bench role?

Not surprised you don't have him in your squad. His name sounds like KickCow.

Milchcow wrote:Viliame Kikau is in a lot of teams. What sort of role are you expecting him to get next season, or is he just a place holder for best rookie in TLT.

In 9 games last year he only scored more than 20 twice.

He scored 34 points in 64 minutes the week Peter Wallace got injured early and he had to play big minutes.

I can't see him starting, is he going to get that much of a bench role?

Placeholder for me until TLT Milchcow. The Panthers forwards combo is a tough nut to crack.

mulvy wrote:

Makes a lot of sense. Last year I was one of those Smith owners cursing guys like you! I'm also thinking no Smith this year. One thing you didn't mention is not just scoring higher than their price, but by extension making more money. If the cap is $9 400 000 and your 21 players on average score 10 higher than their price, when those players max out they are now worth $12 475 000. But if $917 000 of your cap (Smith) is not increasing as I expect, when your players max out they are worth $12 329 000, a difference of $146 000. But there are many factors, captaincy, trades, points value and cash making and good arguments can be made for both strategies.

Yeah absolutely. A high value team tends to snowball ahead because it both scores you more points and makes you more money, so you get two leads there.

There are definitely strong arguments for Smith, and good reason that so many people take him first. I just wanted to post another line of thinking.

Wasn't there a varnish? It seems familiar