2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 7

Warriors wrote:http://www.5thtackle.com/2018/03/01/robbie-farah-to-find-new-home-before-round-1/

Farah at the Raiders working with those big forwards with a great opening draw might even mean he forces his way into my team.

Archer wrote:
Its really all dependent on the rest of the makeup of that raiders team IMO. Whitehead can get through a mountain of work and is proven to be a very effective tackler. If Ricky intends to run Austin, Sezer and Williams in the one team with one of those blokes at hooker, it might be on Whitehead to take up the extra defensive work in the middle in lieu of an experienced hooker. He could also potentially work really well with Williams who IIRC put Papa through a number of good holes. Then again Ricky could end up running with both the backup hookers and only 2 of those 3 halves in which case he might not even get 80min at lock and his scores remain around his current price. To top it all off its difficult to know week to week whether something will change so it is quite a gamble.

Hmm, that uncertainty makes me confident about my decision to remove Whitehead from my teams for now. Thanks!

wolfking wrote:With this Rochow talk, do we really think he can get a starting spot, I doubt it.  ET, Eisenhuth, McQueen and Claw all looking to start then Rochow on top, gonna be hard to crack.

The Tigers problems are edge defense. Rochow has provided a high work rate in defense in the trials so if he's doing the business I think he can easily lock down a spot. It sounds like it's his spot to lose if named to start in round 1.

I'm also going back to my rule of 4/5 middle forwards in the mid price bracket (30 to 40 averages) are usually traps e.g. AFB, Alvaro, JBrom, Liu all spring to mind. With AFB and Alvaro they could gun it, but if as reported both the Eels and Sea Eagles are going to run 4 forward benches the chances are less. Another rule I have is bench props are a no-go zone. Those going Latu have to hope he keeps the starting gig after round 3, which he should. The guys like RFM on an edge with a significant role increase are the guys that are definitely less risky. Think Hess, Chricton, Harris, Kaufusi etc of years gone by, these are the real cash cows to get.

That's why I may just go Lodge and Fifita (is the loss of Tagatese, Heighington and Latimore offset by Ava and Uele - probably not). Fifita's worse year last year by a lot in last 4 years, Gallen another year older, if Fifita scores poorly and doesn't make origin you have him for round 13, if he does make origin he has probably gunned it.

Farah at the Raiders will be Orford 2.0

Guys & Gals

Drumming up support and looking for anyone interested in joining the VSDT (Sportsdeck) Fantasy league. Were looking for 6 more players if anyone is interested.

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t611p40-2018-virtual-sports-dream-team-leagues-registration-thread#top

The cheapies are really starting to give me the shits. I'm not seeing alot of potential for money making in any of them (which, if true, affects everyone anyway). Here is my quick take on a number of them:

Havili - IMO will start, but will he get enough minutes? gut says he plays 50 odd. If the raiders halves are going ok it makes to alter that until maybe 5 or 10 mins before half time. Weird one. Either way, expecting 25 to 30 at best.

Garvey - don't expect him to play NRL.

Kikau - Likely to start but how long does he hold onto the position over CHN? It would seem like CHN reclaims a starting spot pretty quickly.. but Griffin.. who knows.

Leilua - Right now I'd be very surprised if he starts over Tariq. Likely in the 17, may score 20 off the bench, 25 is probably wishful thinking.

Nicholls - probably the pick of the bunch, but again, a bit of a logjam at souths. At this stage I'm still expecting him to start round 1, but there is also every chance he isn't in the 17.

Katoa - will be in every team.

Hiku - Look, I just think he's a dud and will average 23.

Milne - Doesn't look likely to be playing NRL to start the year. May get a chance pretty quickly depending on Tigers fortunes, which don't look great.

Kennar - Another that will need tries to score well, may have to go with him through sheer lack of options. DPP handy too. Job security isn't its best.

Thompson - how long can he hang around with lolohea in the mix. Lolohea reportedly not in the side because he couldnt drop the kg's that Cleary wanted him to. Thompson MAY move to wing if Tui comes in, and might be a reasonable option. But wingers in poor sides.... high risk pick.

Croker - Fairly default 18-21 pick but he feels like Elgey 2.0 to me.

Doueihi - I don't mind his potential, might be worth a punt and just wait for injuries to give him a solid run. If he starts he would be gold. High risk pick.

Egan - Just won't play the minutes off the bench

Isaako - with Oates playing the second half against PNG on the wing I think that signals he'll be there in round 1, leaving no room for Isaako. Boyd's hammys aren't great, so he may get a chance fairly soon.

Hymel Hunt - not quite a cheapie, but not a bad option if you can find hte extra cash. Injury problems seem to hang around him though.

Raiders, Manly, Sharks may throw up a cheap option on the bench but they'll be low minute forwards.

Warriors wrote:I'm also going back to my rule of 4/5 middle forwards in the mid price bracket (30 to 40 averages) are usually traps e.g. AFB, Alvaro, JBrom, Liu all spring to mind. With AFB and Alvaro they could gun it, but if as reported both the Eels and Sea Eagles are going to run 4 forward benches the chances are less. Another rule I have is bench props are a no-go zone. Those going Latu have to hope he keeps the starting gig after round 3, which he should. The guys like RFM on an edge with a significant role increase are the guys that are definitely less risky. Think Hess, Chricton, Harris, Kaufusi etc of years gone by, these are the real cash cows to get.

That's why I may just go Lodge and Fifita (is the loss of Tagatese, Heighington and Latimore offset by Ava and Uele - probably not). Fifita's worse year last year by a lot in last 4 years, Gallen another year older, if Fifita scores poorly and doesn't make origin you have him for round 13, if he does make origin he has probably gunned it.

I've had Latu for a while & now J-Brom but I don't like any of the mid range options except AFB & Alvaro but as you pointed out their respective benches is not a good sign. To me McGuire is a good bet or maybe Taukeiaho as he will become a dpp if named to start at prop. I'm thinking it's better to start with a high price option at frf because it's just 1 trade to downgrade to a cheaper option that emerges rather than using 2 trades to upgrade.

Thoughts on this squad?

Smith (c)
Fifita Lodge
Merrin Whitehead RFM
CWalker Cartwright
Mitchell Kennar (not happy with no Milne)
Tedesco Ponga Katoa

Cook Lichaa Nicholls 1 of 5 other $228K players.

Warriors wrote:Thoughts on this squad?

Smith (c)
Fifita Lodge
Merrin Whitehead RFM
CWalker Cartwright
Mitchell Kennar (not happy with no Milne)
Tedesco Ponga Katoa

Cook Lichaa Nicholls 1 of 5 other $228K players.

8 cheapies gives you very little room for error. I am not sure I will be confident going that route.

You going to consider Murray if he starts, or have you gone off him?

Warriors wrote:I'm also going back to my rule of 4/5 middle forwards in the mid price bracket (30 to 40 averages) are usually traps e.g. AFB, Alvaro, JBrom, Liu all spring to mind. With AFB and Alvaro they could gun it, but if as reported both the Eels and Sea Eagles are going to run 4 forward benches the chances are less. Another rule I have is bench props are a no-go zone. Those going Latu have to hope he keeps the starting gig after round 3, which he should. The guys like RFM on an edge with a significant role increase are the guys that are definitely less risky. Think Hess, Chricton, Harris, Kaufusi etc of years gone by, these are the real cash cows to get.

That's why I may just go Lodge and Fifita (is the loss of Tagatese, Heighington and Latimore offset by Ava and Uele - probably not). Fifita's worse year last year by a lot in last 4 years, Gallen another year older, if Fifita scores poorly and doesn't make origin you have him for round 13, if he does make origin he has probably gunned it.

I've had Fifita and Lodge for a while now. Also Ava hurt his hammy last week, not sure how bad.

White Lightning wrote:

I've had Latu for a while

I've actually come around to him, largely due to lack of options, but in his favour are:
- *should* hold the starting prop position, even when wallace returns. Ball is in his court really, but was impressive in the last trial.
- priced at 22, if he can average 32, then he's a reasonable investment.
- he averaged 34 in 2016 in 48 minutes.. that's probably his ceiling in terms of expectations, but also not out of the question.

I know talk of minutes in pre season is all a bit of wishful thinking BUT this article goes into a bit of depth about how he's been training with the intention of playing 50 mins, has dropped kilos, cleaned up his diet, etc
https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/leilani-latu-sacrifices-turkish-delight-in-search-/3343889/

lots of IF's.. though maybe more realistic IFs than other cheap options out there.

Warriors wrote:Thoughts on this squad?

Smith (c)
Fifita Lodge
Merrin Whitehead RFM
CWalker Cartwright
Mitchell Kennar (not happy with no Milne)
Tedesco Ponga Katoa

Cook Lichaa Nicholls 1 of 5 other $228K players.

Great looking team. Similar to mine except the whole Smith thing.

Warriors wrote:Thoughts on this squad?

Smith (c)
Fifita Lodge
Merrin Whitehead RFM
CWalker Cartwright
Mitchell Kennar (not happy with no Milne)
Tedesco Ponga Katoa

Cook Lichaa Nicholls 1 of 5 other $228K players.

You have 8 players that are $228k or less.

Will their be that many named on Tuesday?

Not a fan of the Guns and Cows tactic this year. If those cheapies don’t score well or keep their position on the field then you have dug yourself a hole.

The more I tinker the harder I find it to run Smith.

IM thinking, if I run Friend, the jump to Smith is easier to make. If it turns into a massive back fire.

Will still have Fifita and teddy for captaincy options.

I think being able to run, cook, licha, friend, Fifita, teddy, ponga plus a few others, with out having to run more than 2 real cheapies in the 17 is acceptable.

This was my run down of the cheapies in the cheapie tyhread that nobody reads

Forwards

Craig Garvey/Siliva Havili
One of these likely to play hooker for Canberra. 80 minute job not likely, will either share with each other, or Blake Austin/Sam Williams
Garvey has the better fantasy form - in 2016 he played 3 80 minute games for the dogs when Lichaa was injured and averaged 60 points.
Unlikely he'll play 80 minutes at Canberra, but if he gets the starting nod he'll score enough to eb useful.
Havili has never scored more than 30 points in 3 seasons as bench utility - you want to be comfortable he'll play 40 minutes+ to be useful.


Villiame Kikau
Has started a few games in back row during trials. Probably just holding a spot for CHN who is returning from injury.
Probably not likely to hold a starting spot for more than a coupl eof weeks but should get a reliable bench spot.
If he starts 30-40 points and cash cow goldmine. As a bench player he'll be lucky to make 50c, unless he picks up a lot from 2017

Luciano Leilua
Fighting with Tariq Sims to take Joel Thompsons edge spot at the Dragons. Highly rated but has had mixed trial form
As a starter 30-40 points entirely possible.
A bench Leilua a better option than a bench Kikau IMO, more likely to get into solid 20s average and make a bit of cash.

Mark Nicholls
Started some trials for Souths in the front row. Looks promising fanatsy-wise if he can hold that spot.
Will rely on George Burgess to continue his slide into mediocrity in order to be useful in fantasy, and Sam Burgess to stay on the edge/lock.



Backs

Siona Katoa
Led the NYC in tackle breaks last year. Looks to be ahead of Aaron Gray for a wing spot at Cronulla.
Not sure yet how his stats will translate into NRL, but his U20s stats were great.

Taane Milne
Has the best fantasy pedigree of cheap players. Averages high 30s as starting centre.
Not been starting in trials so everyone is going cold on him. If he manages to get a starting spot he's in your team
Otherwise keep searching

Richard Kennar
Playing on the wing for Souths. Played a few years at Melbourne before that - 2016 he scored 43 in his only wing appearance, 21 and 29 in 2 games at centre
2016 He averaged 17 from 6 games - if he replicates that he'll make about $10k (don't spend it all in the one shop).
Bit risky as I think you need him to be scoring tries to get enough points to be worth it.
Has DPP though which could come in handy.

Corey Thompson
Looks like he might start at fullback for Tigers in round 1. Lolohea is around as well so who knows what jiob security is like
Lolohea making first grade might push him to the wing, or out of the team completely, or Thompson might keep the no1 all year.
Has been playing for Widnes in super league where he has scored a zillion tries (37 tries in 52 games, mostly as fullback)
Before that he spent 2 seasons at the dogs where he averaged 28 points in 30 games on the wing.
A reasonably safe bet scoring-wise if you can trust his job security. Even playing on the wing he shoul ddo well for his price.


Lachlan Croker
Got injured and scored 0 points in his only ever NRL appearance. Will obviously do better than that this year, but how much better is the question.
He was highly rated at the Raiders, but could never deliver. Questions as to whether he will be the next Kane Elgey, scoring 20 points a week and frustrating everyone.
In the old 25 man squads he would be a shoe-in to make your squad. 4 less players this year and it requires a little thought.
Best cheap prospect in the halves at the moment though


Adam Doueihi
Competing with Robbie Farah for bench utility at Souths (and potential halfback if Reynolds gets injured)
Personally - I think he'll be a fantasy goldmine if he happens to jag a starting spot. If he gets a bench utility spot he might still be worth a look
Would want to get an idea of possible minutes/usage before committing though


Lewis Brown
haha j/k. Don't get him.


Others to keep en eye on

Keegan Hipgrave
Titans have a stacked forward pack but he has been impressive so far. Probably won't get the minutes to make fantasy cash, but worth keeping an eye on.
Suspended for round 1.

Alexander Brimson
Was apparently in line to play fullback this year until Michael Gordon was signed.
Might get a run at some point during the year, either to replace Elgey in the halves, or in the backline.
Another to keep an eye on

Tom Wright
Has been talked up. There was some hope he'd fill in for injured Dylan Walker, but doesn't look like that will happen

Tyson Gamble
Some rumours that Brooks might get the flick during the year if he doesn't perform. In that case Tyson Gamble might get his shot at halfback


There are a few others but I have reached the limits of my motiviation to keep typing, and I'm not sure there's anyone who will statr in round 1
Bound to be a few surprises though (especially in the extended 21 man squads named next Tuesday)

Milchcow wrote:
This was my run down of the cheapies in the cheapie tyhread that nobody reads

Forwards

Craig Garvey/Siliva Havili
One of these likely to play hooker for Canberra. 80 minute job not likely, will either share with each other, or Blake Austin/Sam Williams
Garvey has the better fantasy form - in 2016 he played 3 80 minute games for the dogs when Lichaa was injured and averaged 60 points.
Unlikely he'll play 80 minutes at Canberra, but if he gets the starting nod he'll score enough to eb useful.
Havili has never scored more than 30 points in 3 seasons as bench utility - you want to be comfortable he'll play 40 minutes+ to be useful.


Villiame Kikau
Has started a few games in back row during trials. Probably just holding a spot for CHN who is returning from injury.
Probably not likely to hold a starting spot for more than a coupl eof weeks but should get a reliable bench spot.
If he starts 30-40 points and cash cow goldmine. As a bench player he'll be lucky to make 50c, unless he picks up a lot from 2017

Luciano Leilua
Fighting with Tariq Sims to take Joel Thompsons edge spot at the Dragons. Highly rated but has had mixed trial form
As a starter 30-40 points entirely possible.
A bench Leilua a better option than a bench Kikau IMO, more likely to get into solid 20s average and make a bit of cash.

Mark Nicholls
Started some trials for Souths in the front row. Looks promising fanatsy-wise if he can hold that spot.
Will rely on George Burgess to continue his slide into mediocrity in order to be useful in fantasy, and Sam Burgess to stay on the edge/lock.



Backs

Siona Katoa
Led the NYC in tackle breaks last year. Looks to be ahead of Aaron Gray for a wing spot at Cronulla.
Not sure yet how his stats will translate into NRL, but his U20s stats were great.

Taane Milne
Has the best fantasy pedigree of cheap players. Averages high 30s as starting centre.
Not been starting in trials so everyone is going cold on him. If he manages to get a starting spot he's in your team
Otherwise keep searching

Richard Kennar
Playing on the wing for Souths. Played a few years at Melbourne before that - 2016 he scored 43 in his only wing appearance, 21 and 29 in 2 games at centre
2016 He averaged 17 from 6 games - if he replicates that he'll make about $10k (don't spend it all in the one shop).
Bit risky as I think you need him to be scoring tries to get enough points to be worth it.
Has DPP though which could come in handy.

Corey Thompson
Looks like he might start at fullback for Tigers in round 1. Lolohea is around as well so who knows what jiob security is like
Lolohea making first grade might push him to the wing, or out of the team completely, or Thompson might keep the no1 all year.
Has been playing for Widnes in super league where he has scored a zillion tries (37 tries in 52 games, mostly as fullback)
Before that he spent 2 seasons at the dogs where he averaged 28 points in 30 games on the wing.
A reasonably safe bet scoring-wise if you can trust his job security. Even playing on the wing he shoul ddo well for his price.


Lachlan Croker
Got injured and scored 0 points in his only ever NRL appearance. Will obviously do better than that this year, but how much better is the question.
He was highly rated at the Raiders, but could never deliver. Questions as to whether he will be the next Kane Elgey, scoring 20 points a week and frustrating everyone.
In the old 25 man squads he would be a shoe-in to make your squad. 4 less players this year and it requires a little thought.
Best cheap prospect in the halves at the moment though


Adam Doueihi
Competing with Robbie Farah for bench utility at Souths (and potential halfback if Reynolds gets injured)
Personally - I think he'll be a fantasy goldmine if he happens to jag a starting spot. If he gets a bench utility spot he might still be worth a look
Would want to get an idea of possible minutes/usage before committing though


Lewis Brown
haha j/k. Don't get him.


Others to keep en eye on

Keegan Hipgrave
Titans have a stacked forward pack but he has been impressive so far. Probably won't get the minutes to make fantasy cash, but worth keeping an eye on.
Suspended for round 1.

Alexander Brimson
Was apparently in line to play fullback this year until Michael Gordon was signed.
Might get a run at some point during the year, either to replace Elgey in the halves, or in the backline.
Another to keep an eye on

Tom Wright
Has been talked up. There was some hope he'd fill in for injured Dylan Walker, but doesn't look like that will happen

Tyson Gamble
Some rumours that Brooks might get the flick during the year if he doesn't perform. In that case Tyson Gamble might get his shot at halfback


There are a few others but I have reached the limits of my motiviation to keep typing, and I'm not sure there's anyone who will statr in round 1
Bound to be a few surprises though (especially in the extended 21 man squads named next Tuesday)

I think I will be going with Nicholls, Leilua, Katoa, Kennar, Thompson and Croker because at least for now they have some sort of job security (although might not be for long). I mean some of these guys will probably only average 20 but I'd rather take a punt on a player priced at 15 to score 25 points than a player priced at 30-35 scoring 40-45. Then a toss up between whether putting 1 of or both of Milne and Doueihi in over Kikau or Havilli. Leaning towards starting with both Doueihi and Milne to save trades. They both could be playing by round 13 bye and look capable of big scores. If I have Milne I can role the dice on Thompson and Katoa (through DPP) week to week as my 3rd fullback scorer by having the first to play in position 18. Or I could see if croker scores well in position 18, move cody walker to 3rd fullback and put doueihi in to starting team.

I'm surprised Aubs only has a 3.6% ownership. Locked in for the 2rf role with Matterson taking his old utility role. What's the downside? This is my team for now, think I'll manage to leave it as is till TLT.

Cook
JBrom Lodge
Brown Merrin SST
Townsend Carty
Aubs Leilua
Tedesco Turbo Ponga

RFM Rochow Havili Katoa

Nicholls Kikau Croker Kennar

Have brought in Turbo given his early draw and his second full season in the FB gig, I'm thinking he'll start the season all guns blazing. He will be the first to go if I decide that I'm happy to bring in Katoa or Corey Thompson into my team come TLT, to upgrade someone like Rochow/RFM to any surprise undervalued forward that seems like a must-have.

Warriors wrote:

I think I will be going with Nicholls, Leilua, Katoa, Kennar, Thompson and Croker because at least for now they have some sort of job security (although might not be for long). I mean some of these guys will probably only average 20 but I'd rather take a punt on a player priced at 15 to score 25 points than a player priced at 30-35 scoring 40-45. Then a toss up between whether putting 1 of or both of Milne and Doueihi in over Kikau or Havilli. Leaning towards starting with both Doueihi and Milne to save trades. They both could be playing by round 13 bye and look capable of big scores. If I have Milne I can role the dice on Thompson and Katoa (through DPP) week to week as my 3rd fullback scorer by having the first to play in position 18. Or I could see if croker scores well in position 18, move cody walker to 3rd fullback and put doueihi in to starting team.

The other advantage of having someone who doesn't make his team's 17 round 1 is that you get loophole possibilities.

But I think I'd rather have the cash making ability first up.

Arrow v RFM. Thoughts?

I'm thinking Arrow (as long as he's named for Rd1) could be a better buy actually. Can see him averaging around 35-40 based on 40-45 minutes with potential upside as the season goes on.

RFM early season may have a better chance at 60-80 minutes if he gets the starting 2rf gig, but he'd need to be similar to a Felise Kaufusi (come out of nowhere to play big minutes with good stats) rather than Arrow whose work ethic/numbers are proven.