Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018 - End result 164th

No.....................

Going into the start of the week had originally planned to trade Croft/Lichaa to Doueihi/Thompson.
Doueihi I changed my mind on given I didn't want to be caught out in a couple weeks having to find a replacement for him and unsure how some of my mid range forwards would continue to score so went TPJ.

Looking back 2 years ago i made some tough calls to fix my team and will have to this year as well
Costing me a few points early on but should slowly make progress and the team is slowly getting there.

I won't win it this year but playing for fun and should still be able to make some moves in a few weeks when I start picking up fallen guns once the cows mature.

Things like Dufty scoring 3 tries happens sometimes and that's the way the cookie crumbles. (Could have been Croft or Lichaa too) so not going to make knee jerk decisions.

Haha it's all good, will see how it all works out in a few weeks time.

So looking at trades of Marshall King and Murray pending Team Lists

At this stage Lichaa and Croft would be leaving and this would leave me with 226k

Will see what it looks like in a few hours

Can anyone see any more urgent trades than this?
To me JMK/Murray seem ripe for picking up giving their BE's and Lichaa and Croft seem worthwhile trade outs as they aren't really increasing in value or scoring well.

I could keep Lichaa for another week but think that Havili could potentially score the same (IF he gets minuted from the injuries) and having the cash up my sleeve gives me more options next week
Williams would be the alternative trade as his value has stalled a bit, but would only need a good game to kick start his earning again.

TPJ should hopefully be back in a couple weeks so will strengthen up the 4th reserve spot but short term just need to find that last reserve

Round 4 Trades

Jeremy Marshall King priced at 258k, predicted points 35-40

Waited a week to see how he went, while not looking amazing out there he tackled well and had a go.
The Dogs won and he managed a respectable 41 so will start off his earnings with a BE of 2
Job security is medium but should get a few weeks minimum and hopefully secure a place in the team while he earns some cash. DPP is nice too so potentially could cover full back too.



Cameron Murray priced at 567k, predicted 45-50 points
After starting the season with big wraps but injured, he is finally fit and firing.
Basically a ball playing tackle bot with a big future he is finally getting some good minutes in a Rabbitoh's team improving each game.
Potential to be a cut price keeper and a BE of 19, now is the week for him to come in.

Team this week is :  (258k in bank)

(c) C Smith
Arrow, Lodge
Murray, Griffin, Faitala Mariner
DCE, Marshall King
Mitchell, Hiku
Tedesco, Ponga, Thompson

RES: Cook, Kikau, Rochow, Havili

NPR Cartwright,Williams,Croker,TPJ* injured 2 weeks

Boozecluez wrote:Round 4 Trades

Jeremy Marshall King priced at 258k, predicted points 35-40

Waited a week to see how he went, while not looking amazing out there he tackled well and had a go.
The Dogs won and he managed a respectable 41 so will start off his earnings with a BE of 2
Job security is medium but should get a few weeks minimum and hopefully secure a place in the team while he earns some cash. DPP is nice too so potentially could cover full back too.



Cameron Murray priced at 567k, predicted 45-50 points
After starting the season with big wraps but injured, he is finally fit and firing.
Basically a ball playing tackle bot with a big future he is finally getting some good minutes in a Rabbitoh's team improving each game.
Potential to be a cut price keeper and a BE of 19, now is the week for him to come in.

Hey Booze - Im thinking of making the JMK trade too. However, I'm second guessing JMK, not because of job security but because of what his production will end up being. Do you really think he's gonna be a 35-40 point player? If I had to choose a range I think I'd probably go 25-30. And if he ends up at the bottom end of that, or even lower, then he probably isn't worth the trade right? Im just a bit worried we are getting blinded by his 41 last week which had a decent chunk of attacking stats (4TBs, 1TA, 1LBA) to potentially inflate his score relative to what might be his norm. Thoughts?

My team prior to trades by the way is:
Cook
Lodge, Taupau,
Griffin, Murray, Whitehead
Cronk, Townsend
Isaako, Hiku,
Teddy, Ponga, Dufty

RFM, Rochow, Kikau, Carty

Thompson, Havili, L Crocker, Nicholls

CITB $378k

Current trades pencilled in: Carty to Arrow and Nicholls to JMK leaving $294k

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Hey Booze - Im thinking of making the JMK trade too. However, I'm second guessing JMK, not because of job security but because of what his production will end up being. Do you really think he's gonna be a 35-40 point player? If I had to choose a range I think I'd probably go 25-30. And if he ends up at the bottom end of that, or even lower, then he probably isn't worth the trade right? Im just a bit worried we are getting blinded by his 41 last week which had a decent chunk of attacking stats (4TBs, 1TA, 1LBA) to potentially inflate his score relative to what might be his norm. Thoughts?

Hey Rippin

Yeah perhaps I may have had been a little generous there as was going to leave it at a 35 average haha.

But the thing I liked what I saw was he wasn't afraid to have a run and looked dangerous. He is brought on to be the attacking half (Foran Controlling)and I was thinking of a may/watson/nikorima/Martin type player as comparison.
He is decent in defense and capable of playing hooker means he won't be afraid to make a few of these.

The kick metres were low last week and often on 'debut' players are given simple roles so perhaps this grows, Foran has never been a big kicker.
So perhaps a better range would be 30-35 and being the last receiver in the attack he still may get LBA/TA stats throwing the last pass

To the eye he seems like a decent player who just hasn't had a go so he will be wanting to try and make the most of his chance

A lot will bring in and play over Cartwright so potentially safe for a week or 2 if playing in your 17 so worth the gamble.
I have a few halves up my sleeve if needed so just make sure you have a backup or upgrade plan

Boozecluez wrote:

Hey Rippin

Yeah perhaps I may have had been a little generous there as was going to leave it at a 35 average haha.

But the thing I liked what I saw was he wasn't afraid to have a run and looked dangerous. He is brought on to be the attacking half (Foran Controlling)and I was thinking of a may/watson/nikorima/Martin type player as comparison.
He is decent in defense and capable of playing hooker means he won't be afraid to make a few of these.

The kick metres were low last week and often on 'debut' players are given simple roles so perhaps this grows, Foran has never been a big kicker.
So perhaps a better range would be 30-35 and being the last receiver in the attack he still may get LBA/TA stats throwing the last pass

To the eye he seems like a decent player who just hasn't had a go so he will be wanting to try and make the most of his chance

A lot will bring in and play over Cartwright so potentially safe for a week or 2 if playing in your 17 so worth the gamble.
I have a few halves up my sleeve if needed so just make sure you have a backup or upgrade plan

OK cool, that's all I needed to be convinced. I'll stick with my low end projection and hopefully he goes higher and it'll be a nice surprise!!

I havent read your thread n full, but have you posted anything, or put any thought into how this season plays out long term with regards to getting the final 17/18/19 together, how much money that requires and whether it can be done on todays crop of CCs? I need to do some more thinking on this, but I suspect, as I posted in the main thread, people who can nail the strategy this year will get a massive leg up over the rest given the new format.

I guess roughly speaking if you break things down to 12 guys in your forwards, halves, and bench who'll you'll want to average 55 each = 12*~$800k + 2 Cs who average 40 each = 2*600 + 3 WFBs averaging 50 each = 3*750 + the remaining EMGs at roughly bottom dollar 4*300k that means a total team value of 14.25m

Next step is figuring out what my current team is projected to be worth in say 10 rounds or so.

Also, on that note, have you thought much about what you'd like your interchange to look like and your EMGs? Im strongly considering 4 gun hookers eventually: Cam, Cook, Friend, Macca and risking not having late injury withdrawal cover. But that will all depends on the above and how feasible it s to even get that kind of cash!!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

My team prior to trades by the way is:
Cook
Lodge, Taupau,
Griffin, Murray, Whitehead
Cronk, Townsend
Isaako, Hiku,
Teddy, Ponga, Dufty

RFM, Rochow, Kikau, Carty

Thompson, Havili, L Crocker, Nicholls

CITB $378k

Current trades pencilled in: Carty to Arrow and Nicholls to JMK leaving $294k

Both trades look solid given Arrow is now at lock so should get 60mins easily so 40+ points there.
Also getting rid of carty means you have a stable 17 as well , though something tells me we haven't seen the last of him haha
Your team is looking strong when Carty is now on the chopping block

Boozecluez wrote:

Both trades look solid given Arrow is now at lock so should get 60mins easily so 40+ points there.
Also getting rid of carty means you have a stable 17 as well , though something tells me we haven't seen the last of him haha
Your team is looking strong when Carty is now on the chopping block

Thanks mate, yeah, Im not convinced Carty is a sell quite yet but if I want JMK it has to be him that goes.

Also, in relation to me own question above, I've run some very rough numbers and this is where I come to:

If you want a team valued at 14.25m from where I sit (current value ~10.6m but projected value 13.2m) I currently have to make at least another 1m from guys that aren't already in my team yet..

On top of that Im picking only 5 guys in my team currently will be in there at the end, so 16 trades to deal with that. Leaves 12 trades to use to make more money and deal with injuries.

If you can make the case that on average you expect your CCs to make $150k you might be able to generate that missing 1m from 8 trades sort so. Leaves 4 left.

If my numbers are solid so far, that means IMO double trading from here on give or take the odd round if the timing isn't right to get the ideal 17 guys and still have 4 trades to deal with injuries.

Sounds possible right?

The only downside is that the rest is its a team of 17 guns (with 4 scrubs), without ANY cover other than max 4 trades to deal with injuries...

What do you think?

Some solid figures there Rippin, will have a look further into this when i get home.

The thing is with the new game and less players in the squad to make cash, potentially the benchmark is lower.
It's also more important to have this final team as early as possible as there is no point having a team with huge value but 1000 points behind the leader.

In a few weeks we will start seeing fallen guns and hopefully this will help the value so you may not require as much $$$ if you don't pay full price for them
Ie Thompson goes from 250k to 600k then Rapana drops in value but then goes from 600k to 800k

Also you may not have an 800k FRF due to limited players that score well here, but spend that on a hooker in the reserves who more than makes up this difference in points.
Going to be different strategies but 4 hookers would be great to have

I will always target these guys to climb the rankings as full price means I may have to find another cow and cash out which is 3 trades instead of the 1 upgrade trade
The gems or value buys are often the 4th or 5th best player in this position but you often get them earlier and at a better point per $$$$

Moneyball

Boozecluez wrote:Some solid figures there Rippin, will have a look further into this when i get home.

The thing is with the new game and less players in the squad to make cash, potentially the benchmark is lower.
It's also more important to have this final team as early as possible as there is no point having a team with huge value but 1000 points behind the leader.

In a few weeks we will start seeing fallen guns and hopefully this will help the value so you may not require as much $$$ if you don't pay full price for them
Ie Thompson goes from 250k to 600k then Rapana drops in value but then goes from 600k to 800k

Also you may not have an 800k FRF due to limited players that score well here, but spend that on a hooker in the reserves who more than makes up this difference in points.
Going to be different strategies but 4 hookers would be great to have

I will always target these guys to climb the rankings as full price means I may have to find another cow and cash out which is 3 trades instead of the 1 upgrade trade
The gems or value buys are often the 4th or 5th best player in this position but you often get them earlier and at a better point per $$$$

Moneyball

Definitely agree on the moneyball analogy. Like the way you are approaching it.

Any second thoughts with your JMK trade now that Croker is iffy. Would be gambling on two guys with questionable security in your halves every week to fill a spot.

Not that I can really talk as I'm running the gauntlet with Cartwright and Croker as my starters who I thought would be good for a few eeks when I got rid of Croft last week.

Edit: Just saw Williams so its fine. Too quick of a gloss over on my part.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Definitely agree on the moneyball analogy. Like the way you are approaching it.

Any second thoughts with your JMK trade now that Croker is iffy. Would be gambling on two guys with questionable security in your halves every week to fill a spot.

Not that I can really talk as I'm running the gauntlet with Cartwright and Croker as my starters who I thought would be good for a few eeks when I got rid of Croft last week.

Edit: Just saw Williams so its fine. Too quick of a gloss over on my part.

Hey Cap'n cheers for your message
Yeah I think you need to be smart with your trades and not get too emotional on them, especially after someone bangs out a huge score as this balances over a season.
If you are going to buy them then you either need to do it straight after their score if they are priced well or not at all.
Same when a Gun bottoms out but then scores good again, it's the timing aspect of money ball of buying/selling that or at least planning ahead for this.

If you pay top dollar for everyone then you will soon run out of cash and will be forced to play cows where you don't have guns that could potentially go sour.
Then all your remaining trades are juggling ones between scores each week and finding cows to make the cash for upgrades of your other players.
You don't want to be still doing this 2/3rds of the season in

Regarding JMK or Hastings, unsure what I will do here but should know more by tomorrow as team lists will be released.
Sometimes a lot of noise is made about trades of players or to promote certain rumors, but I can't help think that often people do it to create indecision and confusion among the masses.
Whether it is on purpose as they don't have that player or by accident, it makes it hard to know what is true and makes trades even harder.
If a news outlet reports that's different, but some rumors may have stemmed from someone on a forum or purely twitter speculation

So for that reason I may have to stick with my JMK trade then if hastings plays I can make the Hastings trade next week(for Croker)
It also gives me a chance to see how Hastings goes with big minutes at hooker but slightly worried as his BE is '0'

Lichaa to Murray seems loke a no brainer this week and gives me extra points too.

Good round Booze given the low scores many copped.
Shows how tight the comp is right now.

Booze you have scored 13 points more than me over 4 rounds, but are 500 ranks higher

If I had just played Hiku over Isaako last week I could have jumped 600 spots in the rankings. if booze had captained Murray/Tedesco/almost anyone but Smith he could probably have made significant ranking progress

Milchcow wrote:
Good round Booze given the low scores many copped.
Shows how tight the comp is right now.

Booze you have scored 13 points more than me over 4 rounds, but are 500 ranks higher

If I had just played Hiku over Isaako last week I could have jumped 600 spots in the rankings. if booze had captained Murray/Tedesco/almost anyone but Smith he could probably have made significant ranking progress

Cheers Milchcow

Yeah the season is a bit like that, pretty close from about 50th to about 5000th..
The past 2 weeks I could have captained someone else and would have made more ground, or traded Croker instead of Lichaa then wouldn't have had to play Havili etc
But having fun and not going to live in the past, it is what it is so small tweaks is what is needed.

Well looks like a couple more decent weeks of dodging injuries and we will be back

Looking at my team there is a few fixes needed, the rest is pretty solid (Unless people can see other improvements?)

1) Solid captain option (So looking at Smith being an issue and have lost confidence in captaining him so I will look at my options here.)
2) Second half (The halves are up and down so need stability there.)
3) Solid 4th reserve (TPJ is a week or 2 away so he is my fix for the 4th spot so that's ok, but a cheap or mid ranged Manly/Storm player would help here too)

A couple options throwing around in my head before TLT is bringing Koro in the halves at Smith's expense.
Would have to rely on Cook for captain and he is a low 50's player unless he scores a try
Then I would need to bring in another cow/mid ranged forward to fill the bench, so someone like a BSmith/Lane/JFH pending lists  
So lets say Koro maintains his average of 55, then would want 40 from my new 2rf = 95 points + 100 from Captain Cook = 195

The other option is going for a new hooker like Mccullough and say he maintains his 65 average, I would need a cheap half so would have to gamble on Maloney
This would mean I would miss out on a cheap 2rf this week as only having 2 trades, but could get potentially 35 from Maloney and 130 from captain Mccullough = 165 (+ whatever say JMK could score)
So a lot more risk on the second option but more potential for $$ and part of the points difference made up for by McCullough as captain.

Third is I could hold onto Smith and hope he returns back to scoring well (On my bench), and trade Carty/Williams out for Maloney/40pt forward for bench
This fixes 2 spots this week and brings in 2 more earners getting rid of 2 stalled ones.

It all comes down to long term points and cash potential cash VS short term points and stability
I made a few tough calls a couple weeks ago to help me out now, If I can do the same now the team will be better off down the track but unsure which way I will go.
Decisions....


Any Thoughts?

I'm hoping that Jack Gosiewski is named in Manly's TLT team tonight, hopefully in Curtis Sironen's spot in the backrow. He scored 4 tries, 2 weeks ago against Wentworthville in reserve grade and has a lot of potential. You've also got Winterstein and Lane who could slot in, but he might get a shot. Keep an eye for him.........................

Player watch for later research:

Luke Bateman
Adam Elliot
Matt Prior
Joe Stimson
Scott Bolton
Mitchell Barnett
James Fisher Harris
Peni Terepo

Nathan Ross
Valentine Holmes