Trials and Tribulations of an NRL Fantasy coach 2018 - End result 164th

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

With Murray out whats your thoughts there? It doesn't matter to me as he doesn't free up enough cash this week for me but I'm also hoping its only 1-2 weeks (until I get better info). You in the short or long term camp there?

For you I see Williams with his injury as your priority trade and with - 175k kitty +  Williams (335k) gives you JFH (499k) and 11k kitty. If you are set on getting JFH its probably not worth trading Murray this week as I don't see someone in his price range being good value that you cant pickup next week anyway.

Just a thought, but if you were happy to skip JFH then Murray could free the cash to go Fifita (798k) and Gosiewski (264k) with 121k set aside for further upgrades.

Depends on how you view Murray I guess. Thoughts?

Murray is obviously tricky cause we don't know how long it will be. 1 week at least, could be 2-4 or potentially more.

My thoughts are though that it comes down to what your goals are for the season. Mine are always to win the whole thing, or at least give my self a chance to do so (I know I never will but hey, I don't see the point in playing unless its to win).

So, with my goal in mind, I don't think you can afford him to be out for more than 1 week. Without any further info, Im not willing to risk that he will be. So, I'll go Murray to JFH (jumping on the bandwagon), instead of jumping off RFM early like I was planning to in order to get JFH. In my mind that doesn't really cost me a trade. What will cost me is bringing back in Murray next week (worst case scenario if I chose to do so) and the opportunity cost of what else I could have done with the trade next week.

In short, Murray might cost me a trade at most IMO by ditching him this week.

On the flip side the risk of keeping him is that you have 50 points on the sidelines for 4 weeks or so which would be a season ender!

And perhaps the most likely scenario which is that in the absence of any solid info before this weeks game, we here next week that he is out for a further 2-3 weeks, in which case you probably have to trade him anyway, and you are definitely worse off than if you ditched him this week.

In summary, I think it depends on your situation, but for me option 1 is the best one.

Cheers for the comments Ranta & Rippin

Yeah it is an interesting one with Murray and has thrown a cat amongst the pidgeons.
With the current trades it means Lodge moves into the 17 and Murray sits in NPR until back or worst case gets sold next week if out longer than a couple.
That is the conservative approach and will stay pending some more news today

Though the worrying thing for me is that he has hammy issues pre season and he was eased into this season so this could happen again.
So if we get something more concrete then the other play is Murray to JFH this week which gives me coin for next week

To me JFH for this time of the year is solid for the 17 so he comes in regardless, it’s the other one that’s not a definite.
It just seems the week for a Gosi downgrade otherwise I potentially pay another 30k next week if he plays well, won’t be getting his points this week regardless.

Given the only real ‘weak spot’ in my team at the moment is Maloney then if I was to splurge it could be there but against the Titans where halves score well then I think I may only gain 20-3o extra points. (Over a Munster or Pearce type player but I am not really ready this week for this)

All a waiting game

Finally got burnt with all the mid range forwards.
While I knew a couple would be potentially an issue, had a couple more unexpected ones this week too.

Combination of a minutes reshuffle at the broncos by Bennett and a few blown out scorelines not suiting certain players didn't help.
Will have to fix a few of these players over the next couple week, was hoping I would get longer out of them but need to start the upgrades.

Will need to look at what I want this year in my forwards but may look at 80min 2rf as they seem to be going well, aren't impacted by low minutes or making/missing tackles and can score the odd try.
Seems to be the attacking players are being rewarded the most and have more upside if I am going to make some moves.
While I have focused on early cash generation, I need to start bringing some of them in

Crichton/Harris/Matterson/JTrbo are some good examples of this, alternatively players like Fifita/Taumalolo even though have low minutes make a big impact and can go huge on their day.

Something like TPJ/Griffin gets me Gun/Su'a but will see what is available come TLT

Round 7 Trades 486K remaining

Mitch Rein priced at 358k, predicted 40-45 points
Well with Peats out (4-6 weeks) and no dedicated hooker on the bench, Rein should get a minimum of 60 mins (Potentially 80mins) for the next few weeks.
He has a history of being solid with plenty of tackles and at his price is worth a gamble including making my bench stronger.
Worst case scenario he should score at least what Griffin has but for 200k less and free's up some cash for next week.


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Ryan Matterson priced at 741k, predicted 50-55 points

Big Motor and looks to be playing 80mins having made the edge his own since Guerra moved on
Can hit a hole, fend and offload while still having plenty of base stats and solid stable scores.
Not seeing a lot of keepers in the halves this year so will look to move him there to partner DCE once Maloney maxes out.
I see him having a breakout season and reminds me a bit of Crichton last year where he kicked on
A keeper either in the halves or worst case provides cover in the 13-17 I think he is worth a punt

So have spent the past couple days going over various options, stats and articles
Can't make up my mind and with possibly having Murray playing. have decided this week will build some cash for upgrades next week while bringing in a keeper.
Sick of playing minutes roulette with the Broncos forwards so have opted to trade both TPJ and Lodge out and not bring in Su’a this week.
I am sure TPJ will bounce back but have used his $$ to bring in Matterson

For the cows at this stage it is not as important what their starting price is, it's about their potential earnings.
Nothing worse gambling on a 15 minute forward or someone with poor security so paying a little more after their big score means you are essentially buying price rises.
Look you may miss one or two by waiting to have a look at them, but you get to cherry pick them and at worst it costs you 50k.
I guess I prefer calculated gambles over going in blind or just with my gut, probably explains why I am ranked where I am but it is the longer plan here and not knee jerk moves.

With essentially only 4 spare spots you need them all earning, not sitting there giving you 5k rises or losing money so if you have to wait a week for a look then so be it.
It may mean in a few weeks they kick on after an injury but there is another who just sits there doing nothing.
You have limited time to make money, so make the most of it now.
Can worry about the minimum priced players when you are 2/3rds of the way through the season and making those last trades.

Not sure what other peoples thoughts on my short term plan are or how I will tackle cows this season, but welcome any suggestions or ideas.

With Thompson/Hiku/TPJ/Rochow/Lodge/Griffin all close or have maxed out, need to start milking them.
Anyways burning through trades but this has always been my style to get my final team asap.

Hope everyone has a good upcoming week, Booze over and out

Trade options/ideas and brainstorming

McCullough and Rochow out and gives me 1.32mil to spend

Looking at below + a cheapie (Sorensen/Cogger/???)

Andrew Fifita
Some quick research and since 2014 he has played 14 games without Gallen

Averages 67 without Gallen from 57 minutes average
Highest score of 88, lowest of 53 so a high floor as well

Another interesting stat is he averages a try every 26% of these games, normally 13% so this means he is getting his hands on the ball more near the line. So chance of a meaty
Went into depth to start the year why I wouldn't start with Fifita. Also why I thought his role within the cronulla team had changed and it's impact on his fantasy stats
But with Gallen out he is now a must have....

Jack Cogger
Played 8 games in 2016 + 2017 and averaged 32 points
This is made up of 20 tackles (2 MT) 150KM so basically all base stats.
Scored similar off his 1 game minus kick metres so could go ok if he gets some of these and push his score back to his average.
If he can get a few attacking stats then potentially push his score 35-40, his team is much better this year
Need to see where he fits in compared to Lamb in the pecking order but could take on a lot of the kicking if paired with Watson

Sorensen hasn't really come out of nowhere, had a similar game against Manly in preseason and should go well if he gets another start.
Edge player and possibly impacts Capewell the most though the latter has more versatility so if Paulo starts then Capewell will be on bench again
Will see once TLT comes along tomorrow

Well interesting TLT and a couple of juicy options popped up.
Going to go 2 cows and clean out the last of the deadwood (Mcullough/Rochow) and free up some cash for some upgrades next week and build a nest egg.
Due to timing of players I want (2 weeks suspension and concussion + high BE) I have a couple weeks to make some other trades.

With Murray back then really only swapping Rochow with JMK for this week and gives me 665k to play with

While I could bring in one gun this week I feel I haven't lost any points and with a calculated risky dice roll 'smart' captain choice should hold my rank.
Hoping my overall value (just under 13mil) will help me push up the board in the second half of the year.


Have decided will look at targeting some cheaper guns to squeeze them in earlier and possibly get more in.
Harris/Surgess/Dugan then one of Edwards or Walker or Mbye will be some short term targets.

Insurance plan is that if something happens prior to kickoff I can always pull the trade or grab a keeper/Another cow worst case due to the cash value in bank

Round 8 trades 665K remaining

Scott Sorensen priced at 294k, predicted 30-35 points

Young player with a great future and a great sharks last name, looks to be starting on the edge.
Had a huge game last week so will start this one with a low BE and ready to make cash.

With injuries everywhere and impressing also in the trials against Manly, he has potential to keep the spot.
Worst case he takes Capewells bench spot and still makes 150k minimum if he stays in the team.
Worth the gamble and gives me a sharks player to cheer on




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Jaydn Su'a priced at 363k, predicted 30-35 points

Looks to be starting on the edge, capable of a big score and breaking a tackle but really
is just freeing some cash and buying as a slow burner.
Has great potential and if he can lock down the spot then even better so another big score in the next few weeks and we are set

Haha same trades as me this week. Just worried I havnt made enough cash from it! Leaves me 380k and I'm not sure I can get two guns for that amount of money next week. Ideally everyone goes nuts and I can hold the cash for and trades for a week.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Haha same trades as me this week. Just worried I havnt made enough cash from it! Leaves me 380k and I'm not sure I can get two guns for that amount of money next week. Ideally everyone goes nuts and I can hold the cash for and trades for a week.

End of the day if you don't get them this week you miss the boat on both.
By getting both if one kicks on at least you have them too, hate picking the wrong one.
In an ideal world they would be minimum price and make heaps, but we don't always get that hindsight so their prices is what it is.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread that timing is everything and due to they way they have scored their risk is mitigated and guaranteed some price rises.
So we are getting quick cash with one and a slow burner with the other.. Win Win

The guns will still be there next week and even if you have to get one gun and one cow then you still should be ok.
It seems this year that it's easier to find an upgrade to a player than it is to find a cow, so get them when you can.

380k gives you options regardless and the way the guns have been going down injured it's damn handy to have too haha

Good luck this week pal, I will be sweating on the scores of the two new recruits. Anything over 30 I'll take as a victory!!

Who are you trading out to make all this happen?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Good luck this week pal, I will be sweating on the scores of the two new recruits. Anything over 30 I'll take as a victory!!

Who are you trading out to make all this happen?

Trading out McCullough who is injured and Rochow who is playing like he is
Good luck to you too buddy

So 665k to spend this week.. What to do....

Wish I had more spaces for players as quickly running out of spots for cover/cash generation.

Going through the squad:
Happy with everyone in the starting 13 but

Hiku Luxury trade but due to high ownership if he goes it gives me a gamble to claw some points on teams above me if he plays poor. So not being a keeper the replacement either needs to be cheap and making cash (Aubo/Ramien/Peachey/Ross) or a potential keeper (Marsters/Aitken/Croker/Roberts/Bird). It may not be this week and could look at other positions to fix first, but feel he could be an option.
Slim pickings but perhaps round 12 with a lucky DPP change may help us.

Thompson Much like the above but would feel more confident running him long term over Hiku, though would be paying $$ for potential higher ceiling players like (Trbo/RTS/Rapana/CWalker/Mbye)
He has done his job and still scored 38 for a quiet game and one try in support but need to trade him eventually.

Gosiewski Injured for at least 4 weeks, end of the day I need to trade someone out so I can bring in another scorer. He is bottom of this pile so a no brainer really.
Either turn him into a gun or a straight swap to a cheaper cow.. The options are limitless here

Maloney While he has been scoring very well, I feel like I am risking it every week especially in my 13-17 where players can be from any position (Would prefer a 2rf)
Has a couple weeks max to score well and probably 50k of price rises left so could be another one to move way though.
May even score well once Cleary gets back but will need to be traded asap once his BE creeps up over 40 and once Cleary is back

Havili Earnt himself a few more weeks of price rises, can't bring myself around to play him again but he can sit there making $$$

Sorensen The concussion didn't help him but should hopefully be good to go this week to help him maximise his profit potential before Gallen/Lewis/Graham come back

JMK Similar to Maloney but on a cheaper scale, if he guns it then has more upside to increase in price but he could max out in a week or 2 without this.
Needs to get back to 35+ scores here though would probably be ranked second on the list to get traded here.

Rein At least a couple more weeks of scoring well fingers crossed, has really helped me the past 2 weeks and been a blessing to have fill a gun spot (McCullough) without the price tag.

Players that could help massively if they go big and can change the season are likes of Fifita/Taumalolo/Taupau while Surgess/Harris/Hess/JTrbo/Crichton are all capable as well on a lesser scale
I guess when you are paying top dollar here you either want high PPM middle forwards or 80 minute edge players.

TTrbo/RTS/Rapana would be similar in the backs.
Have left the half guns off as I am set there for now and playing extra halves are almost a tax not worth paying for long term ie Johnson/Pearce over a forward
Though a cheaper half that is due a return to form could work as a playing cow = Norman/Munster/Morgan/Watson
Smith/McCullough/Mcinnes/Friend are more stable scorers than the above so I may even look at bringing back Smith pre Origin.
With the way the storm are using him for most of the ball play (Jacks essentially a CTR) and looking to be over his injury is may be worth looking at him again


Taumalolo/Fifita/Taupau have proven recently again they can go huge on their day and a 50 point upswing can really make a difference so think that's what I might look at.
With tackle breaks worth 3 points then that is the key here to go huge.
Something like Maloney/Gosi to Taupau/Taumalolo is affordable this week too but need to think about Hiku/Thompson hence the predicament not to blow all the money this week
So a safer option could be JMK to cow and Gosi to a gun and this would leave 200K +  for the future.... Undecided and will wait until TLT to see what is thrown up

So some thinking to be done, appreciate some thoughts if people have ideas or if my thinking is off a bit
Cheers

Unlucky boozey, just 2 short of 900.

Comp is still close. You are just 26 points ahead of me but you're ranked over 300 places better.

if I'd just played Havili last week I'd be doing great.

Milchcow wrote:
Unlucky boozey, just 2 short of 900.

Comp is still close. You are just 26 points ahead of me but you're ranked over 300 places better.

if I'd just played Havili last week I'd be doing great.

Almost 900 haha, won't live in regret but maybe this week for us eh?

Yeah it's  those borderline reserve calls that have gone the other way all year but thinking the best way to fix them is to eliminate them all together.
So hoping to be running the likes of JFH and Murray as my 16-17 soon, ie increase my depth
All the injuries haven't helped either so just have to keep dodging those bullets too, part of the reason I am not going to focus on the byes too much

Value is up to 13.5 mil so reckon I am slowly getting there (Highest in comp is 13.66m but hard to know what people have spare cash wise)
How is your overall value looking?
While I don't think value is massively important this early on, it means later if injuries hit will hopefully have that extra player or 2 who can fill in or means not relying cows in my 17 either.
It's all a new learning curve this year with the smaller squads

Just having fun with it this year but still the strategic thinking stats part of me comes out from time to time haha
Glad to hear you are going well

Overall value is 12.95 with $440 in the bank, so just a touch below you.

Unless someone amazing turns up think its time to stop chasing cows and start bringing in guns who are bottoming out in price.

Try and get a good 17 in the next 4-6 trades and then ride it out. Forget byes to a large degree and just try and maximise scoring for the other rounds. Won't be winning it this year so just try and finish as high as i can.

Looks like my 17th man this week will be Havili/Sorenson and I have cash to upgrade to a proper 17th man next week, so after that it is just timing the trade out for Rein and Maloney and hope for luck with injuries.

Milchcow wrote:
Overall value is 12.95 with $440 in the bank, so just a touch below you.

Unless someone amazing turns up think its time to stop chasing cows and start bringing in guns who are bottoming out in price.

Try and get a good 17 in the next 4-6 trades and then ride it out. Forget byes to a large degree and just try and maximise scoring for the other rounds. Won't be winning it this year so just try and finish as high as i can.

Looks like my 17th man this week will be Havili/Sorenson and I have cash to upgrade to a proper 17th man next week, so after that it is just timing the trade out for Rein and Maloney and hope for luck with injuries.

Solid plan their Milch and may borrow some of that advice.
You make some great points too about the cows, may not need them if you can pick up some bargain/value players.

Tough to get to grips with the price of players this year but reckon the 600-750k type players that are just under the max priced players might be worth a look.
Have tried to grab them when they became available and started with them too, but I feel they are the types of player to fill your 17 for now
If you have spare trades later in the season then you can always splurge, but really just trying to stay 1-2 weeks ahead of the pack.
Let them pay top dollar for them haha

Some players I might look into more tomorrow due to their price Crichton/James/JPapalii/Mannering/Vaughan/Frizell/De Belin/J Trbo/Surgess/Harris

Bound to be some value there somewhere, some are down to their team starting poor, role changes or injuries.
Just got to find which ones are worth a calculated gamble and pick up a couple