2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 8

I’m not sure I have the bollocks to start both KNiko and Croft but I reckon Niko goes very well this year! Already averages decent so he isn’t cheap but I reckon he is one of those mid tier guys who explodes this year

Yeah Latu definitely one that has to give in those 3. Cartwright is priced and positioned as a no brainer 14-17 player. Latu surely not a guaranteed long term proposition and not sure he really makes that much money in the time he is there getting good mins. Not only is Wallace coming back to take one of the spots but a big old chunk of minutes. As props go, he’s got that middle lock forward engine

GreenMachine wrote:Yeah Latu definitely one that has to give in those 3. Cartwright is priced and positioned as a no brainer 14-17 player. Latu surely not a guaranteed long term proposition and not sure he really makes that much money in the time he is there getting good mins. Not only is Wallace coming back to take one of the spots but a big old chunk of minutes. As props go, he’s got that middle lock forward engine

With Arrow being injured, Latu could actually keep that spot. Arrow at 13 would be good, kind of need an injury to one of the halves so Carty gets shifted there and then there's space for everyone.

wolfking wrote:

With Arrow being injured, Latu could actually keep that spot.  Arrow at 13 would be good, kind of need an injury to one of the halves so Carty gets shifted there and then there's space for everyone.

Arrow good to go from Round 1 (to our best knowledge).

I think Latu has the potential to average as high as Cartwright - or should I say that the other way - Cartwright has the potential to be as low as Latu. Around 30 ish.

Croft vs Nikorima

Croft priced at 38, starting half average in past 2 years is 55
KNick priced at 37, 80 minute half average is 45

Both have very high try scoring rates as starting halves. 
Nikorima 7 tries in 12 games, Croft 4 tries in 5 games. If they can't maintain a decent strike rate then average will go down.

Kick metres
4 of Croft's 5 games have been with Griffin as hooker. Griffin only kicked the ball once in those 4 games, and Croft kicked for an average of 300m.
The 1 game Smith and Croft played together they kicked for 185m between them (Croft 102m to Smith's 83. Kicking was down for the Storm in that game as they flogged Newcastle and didn't need to kick for distance much)

I think its safe to say that Croft will kick less with Smith around, but hard to say exactly how much.
Last year Smith averaged 150 kick metres and Cronk averaged 275

Nikorima kicked for 112m in 80 minutes halfback games
Milford was KNik's half partner every time in those games and averaged 175km in those games.

Ben Hunt at hooker (119km) kicked less than Andrew McCullough (149km) at hooker in games where KNik was halfback. Although Hunt only averaged 60 minutes to McCullough's 80 minute games.

In short - I don't see any reason why KNik will see a large increase in his kicking duties, unless Milf is being instructed not to kick as much for some reason and let KNik take over.
Croft will likely see a reduction in his kicking though.

my tv broke wrote:

Arrow good to go from Round 1 (to our best knowledge).

I think Latu has the potential to average as high as Cartwright - or should I say that the other way - Cartwright has the potential to be as low as Latu. Around 30 ish.

At least he's good to go. I thought he might have still been injured. The only problem with the team lists then is Wallace not being there.

TheWeapon wrote:Will people stop talking up Niko please? He was a nice POD a few weeks back haha

Don't worry, most people (not around here necessarily) think the Broncs will go rubbish this year for some reason, which will turn a lot of people of Niko. I think they're wrong for the record

Speedball Deluxe wrote:

Just to add a bit of context though, isn't it also true that:
A) Niko's kick metre average at starting half is brought down because he played a number of rounds when Hunt was at hooker late in the season, where he took a lot of kick metres off Niko and Milf?
B) Nikos lowest scoring games in those latter three rounds were where Hunt was stealing kick metres from hooker, part of the reason for the three low scores.
C) Croft's avg kick metres are high because Smith wasn't on the field stealing kick metres from him during a lot of his starting games?

I'm recalling this from memory, don't have the stats in front of me to check, so could be a bit wrong.

In rounds 22,23,24 Hunt kicked 82,229,129 (145 average)

Discounting the above games Hunt played hooker but where Nikorima still played 80 minutes (small sample of 7 games) Nikorima averaged 126 kick metres with a high of 215 in round 11

For context Andrew McCullough averages around 80 metres kick in his overall career, (2017 he averaged 99) so Ben Hunt at most stole a couple points off Niko though based on his average then there is no real impact.

If you believe the Broncos are going to be dominant then I don't believe you are buying Niko for his Kick metres

The more I think about these positions and players keeping spots or not, the more I think the guns and cows strategy will be so much more of a gamble this year. If your banking on a lot of players like Latu, Nicholls etc. to retain a spot to free up the coin for your guns, if for some reason they all fall through in a couple of weeks, you're pretty much stuffed. Team lists is just going to make things harder IMO. Might have to go for more mid range options that you know are going to keep their spot just to try and provide some kind of somewhat depth and security if all goes to shit.

Thing that worries me with Niko is Milf playing more of the halfback role - which he seemed to do against PNG. And Chris Garry literally just tweeted this from broncos training:

Chris Garry
‏@ChrisGarry7
Oates confirmed for wing. Milford will play halfback but will wear six. At training he's feeding scrums and first receiver.

But yes, the Niko pick isn't really for base stats. On the flipside, if Niko is playing wider theres potential for more involvement in backline moves, cheap offloads & tbs, etc.

my tv broke wrote:Thing that worries me with Niko is Milf playing more of the halfback role - which he seemed to do against PNG. And Chris Garry literally just tweeted this from broncos training:

Chris Garry
‏@ChrisGarry7
Oates confirmed for wing. Milford will play halfback but will wear six. At training he's feeding scrums and first receiver.

But yes, the Niko pick isn't really for base stats. On the flipside, if Niko is playing wider theres potential for more involvement in backline moves, cheap offloads & tbs, etc.

Thanks, that is interesting!

my tv broke wrote:Mannering shoulder injury - didn't travel with side. May miss up to a month according to article, though nothing concrete - http://www.radiosport.co.nz/sport-news/league/warriors-veteran-simon-mannering-out-of-season-opener/

this will cause even more selection headaches as the warriors, like the titans, have a new look backrow on top of suspensions and injuries

so much to gain if you think like the coaches and guess right

I may take a punt on TPJ. I was watching that stupid Broncos Insider show yesterday and I can't remember exactly what the segment was about but the performance coach guy I think it was did mention something about TPJ and how they were looking to increase his minutes this year. Didn't say much more than that but even though he's starting as Milch said it could very well change when Macca starts, but Thaiday I think will get used a bit less and I think he may become more of a bench utility type player as TPJ is young and has a big career in front of him. He was tremendous in the World Cup too.

Dunno all guess work.

my tv broke wrote:Thing that worries me with Niko is Milf playing more of the halfback role - which he seemed to do against PNG. And Chris Garry literally just tweeted this from broncos training:

Chris Garry
‏@ChrisGarry7
Oates confirmed for wing. Milford will play halfback but will wear six. At training he's feeding scrums and first receiver.

But yes, the Niko pick isn't really for base stats. On the flipside, if Niko is playing wider theres potential for more involvement in backline moves, cheap offloads & tbs, etc.

Hmm makes me think I should just go Milf for more secure points and not worry so much about a 'value' pick (I just want one Broncs half to watch). As it is there's so much value to be had in basically every other position, surely picking one player who isn't necessarily 'value', but won't go backwards, isn't going to ruin my season.

EDIT: Typos everywhere.

pm888 wrote:

this will cause even more selection headaches as the warriors, like the titans, have a new look backrow on top of suspensions and injuries

so much to gain if you think like the coaches and guess right

It also makes me breathe a bit easier about picking Tohu Harris...though I don't think the Mannering injury will influence his scores at all. I'm just clutching at straws to justify my selection.

my tv broke wrote:Mannering shoulder injury - didn't travel with side. May miss up to a month according to article, though nothing concrete - http://www.radiosport.co.nz/sport-news/league/warriors-veteran-simon-mannering-out-of-season-opener/

Always something that draws me back into picking Warriors players.

Be interesting to see how the team is named and then how they line up.

Someone is going to making a few more tackles.

Jeez no Mannering for the Warriors potentially. Who's going to stop the tries without Mannering making 50 tackles. He does the job of 2 players defensively & no one else in the squad can match that.
Also I just tried a team with Turbo at fb (I also have Tedesco). It meant I had to put Carty into the halves which is pretty low risk due to ownership but it does concern me.

I keep thinking 'hurry up Tuesday'....but then I remember we'll have those 21 player lists with the last minute changes and coaches playing silly buggers and none of us will be closer to securing a team

White Lightning wrote:Jeez no Mannering for the Warriors potentially. Who's going to stop the tries without Mannering making 50 tackles. He does the job of 2 players defensively & no one else in the squad can match that.
Also I just tried a team with Turbo at fb (I also have Tedesco). It meant I had to put Carty into the halves which is pretty low risk due to ownership but it does concern me.

haha its funny you say that. every time i put cartwright into the 13 i feel like it looks wrong even though he is in my 17 so there is no difference. he doesnt inspire confidence does he?

Was reading over some of the posts from yesterday and someone mentioned Munster. Are people not picking him due to not wanting 2 halves from the same team? I'm tempted if I'm being honest but my second half is currently one of my most difficult positions