2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 8

Boozecluez wrote:Going to be here all day if anyone wants a player looked at stats wise.
Had a passing in the family so off work and trying to keep my mind occupied

Sorry to hear, had a friend pass yesterday morning. Thankfully it was expected if you can be thankful for that ???

Just to keep you busy. Carney is signing with the Cowboys. What are his stats like as a bench utility ?

I'm going Taka/Aubbs (I have real fetish for DPP 2RF/CTR) with Hiku in my 18-21 and hoping to leave it that way for as long as possible

Random wrote:

If Griffin is named to start I think his spot is safe. He was signed and bought in. The Knights stuck with Levi most of last year. This post is actually making me look at Griffin more now lol. I may take him instead of Lichaa.

I'm following this one closely too. The knights forums are blowing up because Levi played really well last year, as well as in the trials. Apparently Levi wasn't happy about his game time in the trials either. Maybe a personality clash with Brown? Wouldn't be the first time.... (pure speculation on my part)

Leilua's average last 4 years has been 40, 30, 49, 33.

He is due another good year. I don't put much faith in such patterns to continue, but he is tempting nonetheless

TheWeapon wrote:

I'm following this one closely too. The knights forums are blowing up because Levi played really well last year, as well as in the trials. Apparently Levi wasn't happy about his game time in the trials either. Maybe a personality clash with Brown? Wouldn't be the first time.... (pure speculation on my part)

I think it's really weird if they play Lamb on the bench. They already have Buhrer to cover for hooker if they weren't going to play Levi there.
Unless they just absolutely love Lamb and want to appease him to keep him there..

Fortitude wrote:

Sorry to hear mate.

Feel free to give me the Downlow/thoughts on Moga as an option. Seem to remember he ended up sscoring pretty well by the end of last season? will this continue at the nights? or money spent better elsewhere.

Moga over his entire career has averaged 34 points
If you look at say the year in 2 halves, first half 31 pts (3 tries, 2.5 Tb per game) and last half 44.5 pts (6 tries, 4 Tb per game)
Everything else is pretty similar

New team which won't be as good as the Broncos so question is do you see him playing better and averaging like the second half. Gagai averaged 43 for context

Milchcow wrote:
Leilua's average last 4 years has been 40, 30, 49, 33.

He is due another good year. I don't put much faith in such patterns to continue, but he is tempting nonetheless

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from memory the 40 was at the Knights, the 30 was when he switched teams to the Raiders (and had a few games off the bench/with fitness concerns etc). The 49 was when the Raiders/he gunned it and last season was just a write off and he still averaged 33.

I'm thinking he'll average somewhere between 38-43. As with most of my squad, I'm very confident he'll average ~5 points above his price and reasonably confident of getting up to 10 points above.

To me, the knights squad will be an interesting one to watch, with quite a few fantasy implications. If it is looking like Griffin is selected over Levi, then I would expect Watson/Lamb to be the bench utility with Levi to ressies....

Boozecluez wrote:Going to be here all day if anyone wants a player looked at stats wise.
Had a passing in the family so off work and trying to keep my mind occupied

Sorry to hear that mate. Hopefully we can keep you company.

Thoughts on TPJ mate?

Dttragic2016 wrote:

I think it's really weird if they play Lamb on the bench. They already have Buhrer to cover for hooker if they weren't going to play Levi there.
Unless they just absolutely love Lamb and want to appease him to keep him there..

Good points. Surely Buhrer makes the side (he is co-captain, I think)... I'd have Guerra / Fitzgibbon / Barnett in the run on side with Buhrer on the bench....who has covered hooker in the past.... which like you say questions the value of Lamb/Watson on the bench. There was a story earlier about Pearce wanting Lamb as the 6....

TheWeapon wrote:To me, the knights squad will be an interesting one to watch, with quite a few fantasy implications. If it is looking like Griffin is selected over Levi, then I would expect Watson/Lamb to be the bench utility with Levi to ressies....

I think the main reason they'll go for lamb over levi on the bench is that will effectively make watson the utility and he can cover more positions than levi

No Worries wrote:

Sorry to hear, had a friend pass yesterday morning. Thankfully it was expected if you can be thankful for that ???

Just to keep you busy. Carney is signing with the Cowboys. What are his stats like as a bench utility ?

Sorry to hear that.Yeah this was cancer and Mother in Law also passed away from this as well 3 weeks ago too so happy they both aren't suffering anymore.
Thanks for everyones comments, will stick to footy now so we can all enjoy this day being TLT

Carney I won't imagine will score well off the bench, no real stats to look at but if he starts may be worth a look depending on his price.
Probably bought for depth anyways

@Boozeclues wrote:Going to be here all day if anyone wants a player looked at stats wise.
Had a passing in the family so off work and trying to keep my mind occupied

Sorry to hear mate!

One player I would love a look at is JBrom. Can he actually bounce back like everyone is expecting or is he on the way down??

wolfking wrote:

Sorry to hear that mate.  Hopefully we can keep you company.

Thoughts on TPJ mate?

Cheers mate
Mentioned him earlier in the thread but comparing AFB and TPJ

Tevita Pangai Junior and Addin Fonua Blake are similar players and both players I have been looking at.

Both are big and break tackles,DPP, both may get more gametime due to injuries and have similar roles in their team.

However TPJ is 40k cheaper

If you take AFB last year where you get rid of his sub 35 minute games and his one big 61 minute game you get an average of 40 minutes played from 13 games
This gets you 33 points so priced at 30 you would need him to get more than 45 minutes to make money from him (he has played 60 minutes once and probably due to injury)
Either that or improve on his game which is already a high PPM.

TPJ due his cheaper starting cost and slightly higher PPM makes more $$$ from less minutes and as these aren't keepers will make money faster with less risk

Not one to go off to much off PPM but he consistently scores at 1.0

So priced at 27 you would think he would get a minimum of 35 minutes with potentially more so 35 points minimum , so at least 8 points under priced.
Herman Ese'Ese averaged just under 36 minutes for context. DPP is handy too and like NAS he does go alright off the bench.

He is also capable of a TB so if he scores above 40 the first few games playing extra minutes then you may not get a chance to bring in.

Can someone please give stats on Murray in the 60 minute role. How much can I expect him to score from this amount of gametime?

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Sorry to hear mate!

One player I would love a look at is JBrom. Can he actually bounce back like everyone is expecting or is he on the way down??

Have looked at him a few times but it basically comes down to this = minutes.
Bromwich needs a minimum of 60 minutes to score what he has over his career (50 average)
Last year his minutes were 53 (discounting a couple injury games)

Thing is his PPM was down a bit as well, lets say form/discipline issues but even that wouldn't get him back to a 50 average.
I don't think he will lose money but more like a slow burner with perhaps an average of 45

Just can't see where he goes back to being a huge minutes prop given their bench.
Same reason I have gone cold on NAS.
Given the way Bellamy runs his Hooker and second rowers, where does NAS get those extra minutes and no real reason to change the 2017 format.

Boozecluez wrote:Going to be here all day if anyone wants a player looked at stats wise.
Had a passing in the family so off work and trying to keep my mind occupied

Man, that sucks Booze. Hope you're pulling through OK.

I was just thinking that my WFBs have been set and forget Inglis, Tedesco and Ponga since I started tinkering.

Would you want to have a look into some low-ownership WFBs that could see some improvement this year?
I feel like this is the position with the least differences between teams.

Boozecluez wrote:

Cheers mate
Mentioned him earlier in the thread but comparing AFB and TPJ

Tevita Pangai Junior and Addin Fonua Blake are similar players and both players I have been looking at.

Both are big and break tackles,DPP, both may get more gametime due to injuries and have similar roles in their team.

However TPJ is 40k cheaper

If you take AFB last year where you get rid of his sub 35 minute games and his one big 61 minute game you get an average of 40 minutes played from 13 games
This gets you 33 points so priced at 30 you would need him to get more than 45 minutes to make money from him (he has played 60 minutes once and probably due to injury)
Either that or improve on his game which is already a high PPM.

TPJ due his cheaper starting cost and slightly higher PPM makes more $$$ from less minutes and as these aren't keepers will make money faster with less risk

Not one to go off to much off PPM but he consistently scores at 1.0

So priced at 27 you would think he would get a minimum of 35 minutes with potentially more so 35 points minimum , so at least 8 points under priced.
Herman Ese'Ese averaged just under 36 minutes for context. DPP is handy too and like NAS he does go alright off the bench.

He is also capable of a TB so if he scores above 40 the first few games playing extra minutes then you may not get a chance to bring in.

AFB was one I was considering also but I think TPJ trumps him to start given PPM, and four forward bench vs McCullough starting from bench. I actually prefer Arrow if starting at this price range.

Arrow> TPJ > AFB = RFM would be my guess. There is a case to have all four of these guys priced around 26 - 30 points. If RFM looks like getting 60+ minutes then he will jump the cue.

Warriors wrote:Can someone please give stats on Murray in the 60 minute role. How much can I expect him to score from this amount of gametime?

Discounting small games he averaged from round 22-26 (69 minutes) 53 points

He did however have one huge game where he scored 84 points on a big run with a try, so lets say we take that away and he drops back down to 45 from 5 games

His PPM is around 0.7 with 90% coming from base stats from these 5 games as well

So 60 minutes is around 42 points. He is priced at 38

If he can find some more attacking stats and above 60 minutes should make a tidy profit, but Crichton was a similar player initially then flicked a switch
Unsure on him if he will be a gun to start with, but I don't think you lose on him either

Warriors wrote:

AFB was one I was considering also but I think TPJ trumps him to start given PPM, and four forward bench vs McCullough starting from bench. I actually prefer Arrow if starting at this price range.

Arrow> TPJ > AFB = RFM would be my guess. There is a case to have all four of these guys priced around 26 - 30 points. If RFM looks like getting 60+ minutes then he will jump the cue.

Based on the earlier lists, I have Arrow,TPJ and RFM

Arrow has the stats to back up and like TPJ will probably get an early boost with other players out
Hoping Arrow gets DPP too today.
But if you buy later you lose a lot of the profit and while perhaps not keepers they should be solid starters.

And like others have mentioned, will probably go 2x decent centres here so money saved will be spent there