HomeThanks @milchcow! I’ll also put a profile pic on hold up
NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 25
mickspicks- Posts : 3488
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wolfking- Fanatics Immortal
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Milchcow wrote:
At his best, I think he is a better player than Matthews and should start on the edge over him.
Does Brennan agree? and can Carty play well enough to retain a starting spot?
Yeah, I rate Carty too. Loved owning him in 2016. I wish he was able to find his potential again.
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mickspicks wrote:@wolfking yeah it’s a bit of a flip of the coin. If only I could change RFM grr
Yeah, a little disappointing, but for the game he had, I'll take the 37. Out of all of those I sat Whitehead and luckily at this stage it was a good move.
Milchcow- Moderator
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How many people ended up ditching Cam Smith?
55 is the magic number for me. If he averages less than that over the next month or so, I want to ditch him
If he averages that or more then I am happy to hold.
My main issue is that I don't trust Melbourne on the severity of his injury. I am still scarred by Munster a couple of years ago missing a month with a 1 week injury.
Milchcow- Moderator
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mickspicks wrote:Thanks @milchcow! I’ll also put a profile pic on hold up
Good work
Chewie- Fanatic
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That's a good question... all capable of 40+danseels1985 wrote:Think I'll stick with bringing in JFH and hope he puts on a stack more cash. Who to leave out of these 6 if I can only pick 4?
Lodge
Kikau
Griffin
TPJ
JFH
Rochow
I would pick:
Kikau
JFH
Griffin
Rochow
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Milchcow wrote:
How many people ended up ditching Cam Smith?
55 is the magic number for me. If he averages less than that over the next month or so, I want to ditch him
If he averages that or more then I am happy to hold.
My main issue is that I don't trust Melbourne on the severity of his injury. I am still scarred by Munster a couple of years ago missing a month with a 1 week injury.
I'm in the same boat. I am giving him a 3 weeks.
This week - Back to game gicking (Tigers)
Next week - Back to goal kicking (Knights)
Week three - Should be 100% and back to both. (Broncos)
If he doesn't average 55 over these three weeks, I will have to let him go
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So are we all ruling Turbo out?
Milchcow- Moderator
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StormTrooper96 wrote:
I'm in the same boat. I am giving him a 3 weeks.
This week - Back to game gicking (Tigers)
Next week - Back to goal kicking (Knights)
Week three - Should be 100% and back to both. (Broncos)
If he doesn't average 55 over these three weeks, I will have to let him go
I think if you hold him for those 3 weeks you have to keep him (unless he keeps averaging 30 or something crazy low) he'll have lost all his money by then, and the only way to go is up. I think its pretty much now or never to ditch him.
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Its going to be a bigger night for me.danseels1985 wrote:Tonight will be a big night for me hopefully
(C)urray
Cook
Doueihi (EMG)
Fifita
Mitchell
Tedesco
I’m getting married this afternoon.
She got a bit upset when I asked if we could put the footy on the big screen at the reception tonight.
Last edited by Chucky on Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Milchcow wrote:
I think if you hold him for those 3 weeks you have to keep him (unless he keeps averaging 30 or something crazy low) he'll have lost all his money by then, and the only way to go is up. I think its pretty much now or never to ditch him.
Yeah, I agree. There is everychance that he does pick back up and start scoring well. No one can deny his ability.
I dumped him, wasn't willing to risk losing all the cash and not being able to afford a replacement. Also, there is no guarantee the replacement doesn't start going crap too.
Interestingly, Tedesco is in the same basket (high price and lowish scores) but no where near as much chat about dumping him. Probably because there isn't an obvious replacement at this stage.
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Milchcow wrote:
How many people ended up ditching Cam Smith?
55 is the magic number for me. If he averages less than that over the next month or so, I want to ditch him
If he averages that or more then I am happy to hold.
My main issue is that I don't trust Melbourne on the severity of his injury. I am still scarred by Munster a couple of years ago missing a month with a 1 week injury.
I ditched him in the hope that this is the year he goes downhill... but I'll probably be proven wrong
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Fuck it. Im bringing in Maloney.
I need to fuck robinson off as he wont make any cash and I see maloney as the quickest cash grabber around despite him.being a spud. ill use him as an upgrade in a few weeks.
Only my 4th trade for the season so i have the luxury of doing it.
I need to fuck robinson off as he wont make any cash and I see maloney as the quickest cash grabber around despite him.being a spud. ill use him as an upgrade in a few weeks.
Only my 4th trade for the season so i have the luxury of doing it.
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Remember a few years ago when Sandow threw up a massive score so a fair percentage of players (myself included) jumped on as a quick cash grab. The following week he scored shithouse and only ended up making a small amount of cash.
I can see the same thing happening with Maloney.
I can see the same thing happening with Maloney.
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rhinoceroo wrote:Interesting as ever from Steve Nicholls on "how much is a trade worth?" (Spoiler: It's the wrong question.)
http://renegadesfs.com/index.php/nrl-fantasy/item/1924-analytic-observations-round-4
Yeah I read this too. Funnily enough I did a very similar thing on Booze's page the other day.
I have no problem with the question actually, I think its actually the right question. It's how you use and interpret the answer which I think is the key. The main thing to realise is there is a whole heap of assumptions in how the number is derived and so that should shape how you use the answer.
My main problem with his article though is in this bit:
"Overall, I’d say using $188,000 per trade is too high. I mentioned Damien Cook giving you free value as you never trade him out, that would drop the value per trade down to $174,000. Maybe Cam Murray is a keeper and you have $200,000 of free value from him and another five guns combine for $150,000 of value, before you know it the value of a trade is down to $159,000."
Im not sure why he has done it like this as he has massively undersold the projected increased value of the starting side. I.e. he his assumptions basically say your starting side will get you 710k worth of increased value. He gets this from adding the estimated increased value of Cook and Cam Murray and then seemingly randomly accounting for a combined $150k of value from "five guns"? Im not sure why he didn't put together a mock team full of typically owned players, or even used his team as an example, cause my estimate is that a more realistic number is ~ $1.5m. If he had done this his results would have been $125k per trade.
I also think the optimum make up is to have an 18th man as well. If you include that into his calculations + $1.5m value increase, he gets the same number as me ~$150k
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Moose wrote:Remember a few years ago when Sandow threw up a massive score so a fair percentage of players (myself included) jumped on as a quick cash grab. The following week he scored shithouse and only ended up making a small amount of cash.
I can see the same thing happening with Maloney.
Milchcow- Moderator
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Other issue I have with the Steve Nicholls article is his final team has only 17 scorers.
You are going to want at least 18 good scorers (that is $600k difference you have to find there)
Other way I look at it is this. Lets say RFM/Griffin end up averaging around 40 points - they'll peak around $600,000.
If you only have $150k profit from a cash cow, that leaves you short of upgrading to JTrbo/MCCullough etc. You'll have to go to someone like Gallen who has dropped a bit of cash and hope they regain form. Either that or use multiple cash cows to upgrade 1 player which will be hard with limited cash generation slots this year.
Milchcow- Moderator
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Moose wrote:Remember a few years ago when Sandow threw up a massive score so a fair percentage of players (myself included) jumped on as a quick cash grab. The following week he scored shithouse and only ended up making a small amount of cash.
I can see the same thing happening with Maloney.
Yes. People always overestimate how much cash they can make by trading in a player who has just put up a big score.
I still think Maloney is different because team make up will see an increase in kickign (for goal and in general play) that means he should be able to pos scores big enough to be useful.
35 points is an achievable average for him and I'd be happy with that.
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Moose wrote:Remember a few years ago when Sandow threw up a massive score so a fair percentage of players (myself included) jumped on as a quick cash grab. The following week he scored shithouse and only ended up making a small amount of cash.
I can see the same thing happening with Maloney.
Mbye is a classic example this season...
It seems to happen quite often... a monster score followed by a rubbish score
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Milchcow wrote:
I think if you hold him for those 3 weeks you have to keep him (unless he keeps averaging 30 or something crazy low) he'll have lost all his money by then, and the only way to go is up. I think its pretty much now or never to ditch him.
I think last week to sell else keep and last week to buy Arrow or miss out. That's helped me make my decision