2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 28

WT Winfield wrote:

Guns aren't much use when they're not playing

He'll be an easy trade in for a peaked cow or injured gun at 673k when/if named back at starting LK in a few weeks.

Klemhammer wrote:Hess or Harris?

mattnz wrote:

If you knew for sure he would play fullback every week, yes, but seems to be there every 2nd week.

Vanish wrote:
You're definitely buying him at a premium. $750K is about a 51 average. He's currently averaging above that so I guess he's marginally underpriced, but I think his price will probably hover around this mark except following some massive scores where it temporarily spikes up.

Nothing wrong with getting an in form keeper if you don't have better value trades to make though.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I look for consistency and potential. Want to know that my guys have a good base (fantasy wise), look involved/active/dangerous (more important for backs) and have a high ceiling (chance for big scores) or with no ceiling a promise towards high level consistency at keeper scores (i.e. general base stats (incl. -ves) support a min score of 45-50). Obviously the benchmarks change depending on the position and type of player but thats where I go.

As examples early in this season I see Arrow, Murray and JFH as guys I'm examining in this cut price potential keeper mould.

For me Arrow is shaping to be a keeper based on the following:

60 ish minutes per game
35 tackles / game
150m / game

Puts him at an easy 50 pts a game base which is a keeper to me in the FRF spot (probably not as a 2RF though)

The upside and what cements him as a keeper is his hard running which is good for TBs and his offload capability (Almost 2 each / game discrediting the TBs he got when scoring) . Not banking on tries but theres always a chance.

Will miss a few tackles (2/game) and maybe concede some penalties(1/game) but thats part of the game.

See him in a bad game at 40ish and his big games are Fifita esque. Good FRF Keeper and a borderline 2RF keeper.

JFH

65 mins a game at lock (Griffin makes me question this)
40 tackles / game
80m / game

Puts him at 48 pts base.

Really high tackle count in 2 previous games (50,41) compared to his first 3 (32, 26, 34) with an avg of 65 mins vs 52 mins.
Loves a missed tackle (3,7,2,3,3) - No Maloney but still not ideal
Doesn't give away penalties (0.4/game)
Not as strong a runner (1 OL and 1TB / game)
Don't see the attacking stats improving a lot (upside is limited)

So I see JFH as more of a 42-45 point player mainly due to the missed tackles and feel he's had some bigger games (i.e high tackle counts) that I don't think he'll keep up for a season. Add that Griffin is his coach and his rotation/s will never be as secure as you'd like as well as being a less attacking player (lower ceiling) in a higher scoring 2RF position I just see him being a 2nd tier option.

See him in a bad game at 25ish (see rd 2) and his big games are max 55 unless he bags a lucky try. He's not in the FRF where he'd be a "maybe but probably not" borderline Keeper and a mid tier 2RF guy.

He's making good cash though. 45 would put him at ~ 661k so hes a good cow and short term may belt out closer to 50 ~735k. If he proves me wrong over a few more weeks (while we ride his price rises) and I see some good consistency towards higher base stats (45 tackles + 100m) he'd be worth a closer look as someone I'd want in my 2RF at years end. Just don't see him there now but will pick him up

Murray

60 mins a game at lock
40 tackles / game
100m / game

50 points base

Less missed tackles (under 2/game) with strong TB (2+/game) potential. Always super involved.

See him more as a guy with a floor around 45-50 points a game with the chance to bust out 70s in the right gamescript. Maybe not a top tier keeper but close enough in the 2RF and was available for 500k to consider as a cheap keeper (Solid floor with moderate upside for a big game).

Sorry for the length but loved the topic idea

Edit: Need to thank MTB properly for his awesome site which lets me analyse any player I want like I did here. Great site

Vanish wrote:I think selling Murray now is selling low.
NRL.com still has him maybe playing this week, and it's totally reasonable to think he'll be back next week.

I'm definitely holding.

Fortitude wrote:Those trading out Murray, do you bring in another gun. Or, someone like jfh and hold the cash for the next trade?

Can’t decide if I want to go Murray to Smith/Macca/Fifita or to save some cash and bring in jfh.

NRL Fantasy Butters wrote:

Full run throughs of injuries/suspensions, team changes, fantasy reviews of every game, stats and game analysis of buys, sells, holds and players to watch - how much contribution do you want?

15 Hours a week put into a Fantasy Show for people that's free to watch on You Tube - What value exactly is it I'm extracting lol?
It's entirely a labour of love.

Seems a bit bizarre that this forum would hold people back from knowing it's their if they want to watch it and check it out for themselves...
Very Un Australian and Un Kiwi - let people make their own minds up, This isn't North Korea FFS.

Mearcats wrote:

You're looking at it the wrong way mate. We're not about stopping people from looking at your You Tube channel, we had/have a great poster on the forum here who had his own channel covering fantasy every week and had his own page on this site. The difference is, at no point in time was he promoting it to everyone without adding value to the forum. And no, creating a video for your You Tube channel is not adding any value to this forum.

We get that it's a labor of love for you and that's fine, but this is a labor of love for us. Our mods and guys have put thousands of hours of effort into this place. Having someone come along and without even contributing to the forum start spruiking your channel is a bit shit tbh. If you can't see or understand that then that's cool but don't take offense to guys here getting their back up. We're a community and a tight knit one, we value contributors, not advertisers.

Milchcow wrote:Discussing Avatar bets is about as fun as dysentry.

Given the bet started because Rabbit said Peachey was shit, and Moose said he would go alright, i don't know how it morphed into Moose profiting from his failure.

WT Winfield wrote:1-2 weeks is awfully optimistic for a recurring injury that has been suggested will be 2-4.