2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

I said it last week that Sua is a gun and Ill say it again. I have big enough wraps on the kid that I am happy for Gillett to walk if he demands an increase on the contract he has already signed for another 2 years.

He will play 50 mins at absolute minimum. He either starts and plays 80 or comes off the bench replaces sims after 20-30 and plays out the game while Sims comes back on in the middle in his second stint.

Sims was shocking out wide last week and with Nikorima likely to be put on the bench I expect Sua to start as we were carrying 4 forwards on the bench last week.

My trades this week (depending on TLT) look like being;

Griffen to Gosiewski,
and
Cartwright to SJ

that leaves my halves as SJ and DCE with Townsend as back up. I also have Maloney but he will go a week or two after Cleary gets back !!

Thoughts on Terepo?

Pookus McFly wrote:Anybody else suspicious that the Kikau train is pulling into the station in 1-2 weeks?
Averaging 38.7 for games without tries, priced at 37.5
I know he was put on the wing last week and that affected his scoring, but all that really affirms is that he has some Aubbs -esque flexibility within his team, which is never great for fantasy.
Obviously I am not condoning an immediate tradeout, RFM gave a good example of why jumping the gun can be detrimental, and Kikau will still find a few tries yet this season. One in the next couple weeks can easily jump start his price rises again.

But another <40 or two will pretty much cap him out at about 600k, which I am beginning to think is his price point. Probably a sell in round 9 or 10 unless he finds a big game.

Kikau on the wing was absolutely last resort stuff... because of injuries before and during the game CHN was already at centre and Peachey at 5/8th, and the Panthers were well ahead so could afford to do something bizarre like stick a 115kg guy on the wing. I don't think we'll see it again, and remember he was at about 30 at half time playing 2rf.

THEGAME wrote:

Will he play 80? 66 on weekend without hasting.

It’s either Koroisau or Matterson.

What do we thing about SOO changes for both?

Matterson has zero chance of SOO. Api is being talked up but who knows? NSW hooker between Peats, Wallace, McInnis, Cook, Api, with the last two being best fits for the bench.

B/L wrote:I said it last week that Sua is a gun and Ill say it again. I have big enough wraps on the kid that I am happy for Gillett to walk if he demands an increase on the contract he has already signed for another 2 years.

He will play 50 mins at absolute minimum. He either starts and plays 80 or comes off the bench replaces sims after 20-30 and plays out the game while Sims comes back on in the middle in his second stint.

Sims was shocking out wide last week and with Nikorima likely to be put on the bench I expect Sua to start as we were carrying 4 forwards on the bench last week.

Selfishly, I'd rather Macca stay at 80 mins and drop Niko. Nikorima on the bench means a 60 min Macca and I'll have to get rid of him. I know we've had Opacic who doesn't offer the same impact Niko does but in the event of a backline reshuffle Niko isn't a good back 5 option (would we put Bird to CTR?).

Without team lists its hard (assume Knik is back at HLF) but I'd guess the minutes will be lower:

Between Lodge and TPJ you have Macca, Glenn and McGuire taking almost half (230 / 480) the available minutes. The starting Props (Lodge and TPJ) will take around 40-50 each so we are left with 160 minutes to fit between Sims, Sua, Ofa and Thiday. 40 ish each sounds about right.

Lodge (40-45)
Macca (80)
TPJ (40-45)
Glenn (80)
Sims (30)
McGuire (65-70)

Bench

Sua (45)
Ofa (35)
Thaiday (35)
Opacic (injury cover only)

Note: Who the starter is and who our bench utility is will make this easier to forecast. Probably a waste of time prior to TLT.

THEGAME wrote:Thoughts on Terepo?

Not at that price and 27pts the game before last

Build the bank or upagrade at CTR?

I'm in a similar position to many on here. Lots of mid-rangers starting to top out. Not sure of the cashies to trade down to.

Considering Lodge to Su'a and Doueihi to Latrell Mitchell. Is Mitchell a keeper at CTR?... Is anyone a keeper at CTR???

Thoughts, or should I just bank the trades?

Current Team:
Cook
Arrow Fifita
RFM Crichton JFH
DCE JMK
Hiku Kennar
Ponga Thompson Teddy

McCullough Kikau Rochow Havili

Lodge, Isaako, Croker, Doueihi

Planning on keeping Fifita at this stage.

Shumway wrote:Build the bank or upagrade at CTR?

I'm in a similar position to many on here. Lots of mid-rangers starting to top out. Not sure of the cashies to trade down to.

Considering Lodge to Su'a and Doueihi to Latrell Mitchell. Is Mitchell a keeper at CTR?... Is anyone a keeper at CTR???

Thoughts, or should I just bank the trades?

Current Team:
Cook
Arrow Fifita
RFM Crichton JFH
DCE JMK
Hiku Kennar
Ponga Thompson Teddy

McCullough Kikau Rochow Havili

Lodge, Isaako, Croker, Doueihi

Planning on keeping Fifita at this stage.

Mitchell is a keeper at centre, but wouldn't be spending money there at the moment if you haven't got him now.

Other keeper or value centres are going to turn up at discount rates depending on situations... Dugan or Cotric if they play fullback,  Bird if he plays 5/8th regularly (looks likely), even Aubs if there are Rooster pack injuries.

Late mail has Fifita still in a chance dor this week. Frustrating not knowing whether it's 0 weeks or 4.

On your trades, holding isn't bad but I'd cash out Lodge and upgrade Douehi to Mbye.

Shumway wrote:Build the bank or upagrade at CTR?

I'm in a similar position to many on here. Lots of mid-rangers starting to top out. Not sure of the cashies to trade down to.

Considering Lodge to Su'a and Doueihi to Latrell Mitchell. Is Mitchell a keeper at CTR?... Is anyone a keeper at CTR???

Thoughts, or should I just bank the trades?

Current Team:
Cook
Arrow Fifita
RFM Crichton JFH
DCE JMK
Hiku Kennar
Ponga Thompson Teddy

McCullough Kikau Rochow Havili

Lodge, Isaako, Croker, Doueihi

Planning on keeping Fifita at this stage.

I dunno what everyone else thinks. But CTRs should be considered differently to the rest of your team. From what I can tell, loosely, there are three reasons to have a player in your team:
1. To make you big points
2. To make bulk cash
3. To score reliably at their value

In my eyes, there aren't many CTRS doing any of those at the moment. Some have made cash, but those ships have sailed. No one, is consistently scoring well enough to consider being a keeper. Which means you should look at players who will score reliably.

If I were you, id happily run Hiku and Isaako. High ownership, so probably not losing out to much by playing them. Not wasting money on more expensive options who are equally unreliable.

Sorry about the illogical flow, jumped into this about 4 times whilst draft working stuff.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Mitchell is a keeper at centre, but wouldn't be spending money there at the moment if you haven't got him now.

Other keeper or value centres are going to turn up at discount rates depending on situations... Dugan or Cotric if they play fullback,  Bird if he plays 5/8th regularly (looks likely), even Aubs if there are Rooster pack injuries.

Late mail has Fifita still in a chance dor this week. Frustrating not knowing whether it's 0 weeks or 4.

On your trades, holding isn't bad but I'd cash out Lodge and upgrade Douehi to Mbye.

Cheers, appreciate the advice. Mbye isn't a bit too mid-priced? Another price drop or two before his -1 is cycled out.

Niko on bench is no different to Opacic just gives us more variety.

Any injuries to outside backs send Bird back and Kodi into halves.

He could come on late for Macca if we were chasing points.

Personally im not sold on Bird at 5/8 but given we won last week he deserves another crack.

Fortitude wrote:

I dunno what everyone else thinks. But CTRs should be considered differently to the rest of your team. From what I can tell, loosely, there are three reasons to have a player in your team:
1. To make you big points
2. To make bulk cash
3. To score reliably at their value

In my eyes, there aren't many CTRS doing any of those at the moment. Some have made cash, but those ships have sailed. No one, is consistently scoring well enough to consider being a keeper. Which means you should look at players who will score reliably.

If I were you, id happily run Hiku and Isaako. High ownership, so probably not losing out to much by playing them. Not wasting money on more expensive options who are equally unreliable.

Sorry about the illogical flow, jumped into this about 4 times whilst draft working stuff.

Cheers. Good perspective.

Has there been any more definite timeframe from Souths on Murray?

Alright i'm convinced.
Griffin > Su'a
Croker > Gosiewski
Leaves 339k itb to trade lodge to a gun (eg surgess) next week


Pending tlt team is:
Smith
Kikau Arrow
JFH RFM Rochow
Dce koroisau
Mitchell Kennar
Teddy Ponga Thompson

Cook Lodge Havili Su'a

Gosiewski JMK Isaako Murray

Thoughts?

Round 7 Casualty Ward News -

Broncos
Matt Lodge has been cleared of a fractured rib. He played through a rib cartilage injury and Broncos have him a decent chance to suit up against the Storm
Jack Bird has trained at five-eighth at this mornings session.
Broncos expect Nikorima to return from a thigh injury

Titans
Nathan Peats is out indefinitely (80min Rein anyone?)
Jai Arrow is tipped to be fit
Copley out for 1-2 weeks

Panthers
DWZ is pushing to come back from a broken jaw this week
Cleary is pushing for a return in round 10 or 11
Tyrone May has been delayed another month

No Murray on Rabbits injury list

Dragons
A stomach bug has hit the Dragons camp this week with Macdonald, Frizell and Nightingale all laid up by the illness. All are expected to play this week.

Roosters
SST to miss two weeks AT MOST.

May delayed another month? I thought it was only 2 weeks away.

End Dad Joke.

Stuffness wrote:Alright i'm convinced.
Griffin > Su'a
Croker > Gosiewski
Leaves 339k itb to trade lodge to a gun (eg surgess) next week


Pending tlt team is:
Smith
Kikau Arrow
JFH RFM Rochow
Dce koroisau
Mitchell Kennar
Teddy Ponga Thompson

Cook Lodge Havili Su'a

Gosiewski JMK Isaako Murray

Thoughts?

Ahead of TLT, and all the injury thinking Stormtrooper posted above, I'm making similar trades (but NAS&Dough > Sua&Goose). Good luck to us both!

The money looks nice, the mid-rangers are flat, and the future gun is tempting. Of course, now I'm wondering about Bird and Rein.....

for reference:
Cook Macca Havili
TPJ Arrow Fifita Lodge
Kikau JFH Sua RFM Goose
JT Maloney JMK
GI Dugan Isaako
Ponga Teddy Thommo

Its interesting that generally we all had very similar starting teams, forum discussion driving us towards very similar trade decisions etc but we seem to be seeing diverging teams.

Was it the Smith wobble that shook things up?

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make here - just something I noticed. Perhaps we're in that window where we slowly diverge then come back together when final 17s start to land.

Its great that we get a few more perspectives and options being thrown up. Not so great that I'm spending sooo much time reading everything and spreadsheeting the sheet out of it

Verbal Kint wrote:Its interesting that generally we all had very similar starting teams, forum discussion driving us towards very similar trade decisions etc but we seem to be seeing diverging teams.

Was it the Smith wobble that shook things up?

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make here - just something I noticed. Perhaps we're in that window where we slowly diverge then come back together when final 17s start to land.

Its great that we get a few more perspectives and options being thrown up. Not so great that I'm spending sooo much time reading everything and spreadsheeting the sheet out of it :D

I suspect its because we had so much time to debate the same information before the start - look at Welshy's excellent player profiles as an example. We had the time to put those together, and deep-debate them. Now its a bit different. New data enters after each round, and consensus takes longer than 4 days to really emerge.

The possibility of convergence is really interesting. If there is a limited population of demonstrated true guns towards the end of the season, then there isn't a need to get a debated consensus (because its bleeding obvious).

Will watch with interest!