NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

You are talking about Rein right?

From memory the majority were suggesting he was a buy. Those that were were citing reasonable arguments based on Peats quick return from injury + conservative estimates of Reins PPM alongside the potential for him not to get 80 minutes.

But hindsight is a wonderful thing huh, and like I said earlier, myself and others conducted sensitivity analysis on Rein's output, and I don't recall a single person looking at scores above 50 let alone 70.

Everyone has to make their own decisions here though, and own them, and at the end of the day there is so much guess work and so many assumptions that go into all analysis that most decisions could well go either way.

With respect to Rein though I only recall a minority few that were against bringing Rein in and their rationale was at best based on very conservative assumptions.

I'll put my hand up as a part of the be wary of trading him in crew...........

I originally wrote a whole post defending that stance and why it was a risky move compared to the slower burners of Su'A and Gosiewski but @Rippin and Tearin did a good summary so I won't repeat it.

I'll only say that no-one I know has suggested captaining Rein. You would have been shot down for suggesting doing this which is essentially the same as banking on him scoring like he has at 68.5 points a game. Remember Peats could be named tomorrow as per the latest injury update and if he is the risk you took for 150k 2 weeks ago was will Rein outscore CS9?

Judging by the lack of Rein captaincy choices I'd say no-one saw this coming but it has certainly been a lovely run for those who took the punt initially.

Disclaimer: I did end up running with Rein as I was able to convince myself that the original medical reports were probably a better basis than the coaches estimation of Peats ability to play and I really needed a strong scoring player. I had some slow burning cows like Nicholls (who's been super lucky with suspensions/injuries), Holmes, Croker and one of Isaako, Hiku or Kennar that I wanted to keep in my EMGs and not be forced to play.

Will Welch keep good minutes with Glasby and Bromwich out until round 14-15?

@Boozeclues When the Fantasy gods send you a gift, you graciously accept

Surely Gos walks back in to the side with Manly's lack of depth? Personally I'm happy to wait 4 weeks for a second rower whos BE is still low.

His minutes didn't seem higher than usual. He's had a couple of lower minute games. But tends to see 55 minutes. 10 more tackles and 50 more run meters.

TBs have been up over the last month too

I was tossing up between Sua and Rein, and went Sua. I expected Rein to score 50 ish if playing 80 mins, but it was the amount of games he'd play that steered me to Sua.

Don't think anyone could have expected the scores Rein has put up.

I'm happy with Sua. He got the starting spot a week after the Melbourne game, played 80 mins for 41. That is exactly what I had hoped for, and I think he can keep putting up 40s from here on.

I'm just hoping that Peats is named this week

I moved up one spot with the revised update lol

I think it is time I admitted my folly and brought in Matterson.
A bit late to the party since he is now priced at 56 points, and I have been 'umming and ahhing' since he was priced in the low 40s.

I don't actually think I am paying unders or overs- probably about what he should achieve for the remainder of the season playing 80 IMHO. But 55+ points in the halves is not to be sneezed at, and he is less likely to have the odd low game like DCE or SJ unless he shifts position to cover for injury.

Always hard to bring in somebody at full value though when you could have had them for 200k less. It irks me to no end.

Can't get past the internet filter at work cos of my language, should make an effort occasionally haha

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Thompson > Taupau
Havili > Watson

Both trade outs seem a bit premature. This is going to be a tough week.

No way i would be trading Havili. His breakeven is 5.
Could so easily hit 45s and make another 100k in the next couple weeks.
Find another way to raise the cash IMO

WT2K wrote:I moved up one spot with the revised update lol

I moved up 23! Nice.

I'm looking for a bit of growth value to replace the Goose with a broken wing.

I thought I'd lay out my thought processes and get some proper criticism.


S.Lane ($429, BE 10, R13)
Pros: Should be seeing increased minutes following injury. Class player. Can find the tryline.
Cons: Manly are weird and sucking. Isn't incredibly tackle-hungry. Not a keeper.
Upside: Playing 60mins at conservative ppm of 0.75 gets him close to 600 by R13 - 170k

RTS ($557, BE 41, R17)
Pros: Potentially underpriced gun and keeper. Adds to the acronym depth of my squad.
Cons: Up and down like a *****s drawers. May fall further.
Upside: in form should be averaging 45-55 and priced accordingly, so say 130k

Fonua ($250, BE 2, R13)
Pros: Cheap. Excellent hair. Strong runner.
Cons: I just have no idea about Wests backs. Could play all season or be replaced tomorrow.
Upside: Kennar-ish. Let's say 130k.

Morgan ($521, BE 27, R13)
Pros: Looks like he'll spend some time at fullback.
Cons: Cowboys aren't exactly stable. Plays Origin.
Upside: Risky shot at FB gun - maybe 120k

Aubs ($354, BE14, R13)
Pros: Delicious
Cons: Black widow.
Upside: Delights of ownership. Maybe some points? Who knows.

Capewell ($338, BE 6, R13)
Pros: DPP with centre. Seems to have the running in front of Soren. Loves a tackle.
Cons: Job security.
Upside: 4 weeks of 35s gets you 130k.

TMM ($234, BE 16, R13)
Pros: Talent to burn. May get an extended run at junior half.
Cons: May not.
Upside: Could end up making somewhere around Morgan/JT scores, which is over 200k in 6 weeks.

Haas ($225, BE 9, R17)
Pros: Kids a weapon. Broncs are running light on quality forwards.
Cons: Stupid sounding name (Payne in the Haas. Really? Who does that to their kid? Worst since Karmichael). Will be carefully managed as a low-impact players, and therefore a trap.
Upside: If he can pull consistent 25s then 150k is possible.

Thoughts?

Anyone remember what happened the last time people traded in a guy that just scored 100?

Yeah, yeah -1 injury, unlucky etc. but he went right back to the scores he was putting up before.. 45, 43, 40, 38.

Taupau's scores before the tonne.. 39, 51, 40, 39.. averaging less than 50 mins like years past.

He's a keeper, get him if it makes sense, but don't go moving mountains to bring him in.

McGuire out for 6 weeks, TPJ has the main lock spot till then?

WT2K wrote:I moved up one spot with the revised update lol

Yep, me too

Pookus McFly wrote:

No way i would be trading Havili. His breakeven is 5.
Could so easily hit 45s and make another 100k in the next couple weeks.
Find another way to raise the cash IMO

Ahh yes indeed. He will be staying.

Too many backs in my 14-21 atm (JMK, Thompson, Hiku, and then there's broken Gos)

Doesn't seem to be many obvious upgrade targets either for Thompson

Taupau does this every year. He scores a big one then people rush to buy him & then he breaks your heart.

I think last year Taupau had a couple of big games in a row and everyone got him. He then became the most disappointing prop of the whole league.

I reckon the time to get Taupau is from round 1. He scores better in the first 10 rounds & then declines. I think if you haven't got him by round 5 then don't get him at all.

L-Jimmy wrote:I'm looking for a bit of growth value to replace the Goose with a broken wing.

I thought I'd lay out my thought processes and get some proper criticism.


S.Lane ($429, BE 10, R13)
Pros: Should be seeing increased minutes following injury. Class player. Can find the tryline.
Cons: Manly are weird and sucking. Isn't incredibly tackle-hungry. Not a keeper.
Upside: Playing 60mins at conservative ppm of 60 gets him close to 600 by R13 - 170k

RTS ($557, BE 41, R17)
Pros: Potentially underpriced gun and keeper. Adds to the acronym depth of my squad.
Cons: Up and down like a *****s drawers. May fall further.
Upside: in form should be averaging 45-55 and priced accordingly, so say 130k

Fonua ($250, Be 2, R13)
Pros: Cheap. Excellent hair. Strong runner.
Cons: I just have no idea about Wests backs. Could play all season or be replaced tomorrow.
Upside: Kennar-ish. Let's say 130k.

Morgan ($521, BE 27, R13)
Pros: Looks like he'll spend some time at fullback.
Cons: Cowboys aren't exactly stable. Plays Origin.
Upside: Risky shot at FB gun - maybe 120k

Aubs ($354, BE14, R13)
Pros: Delicious
Cons: Black widow.
Upside: Delights of ownership. Maybe some points? Who knows.

Capewell ($338, BE 6, R13)
Pros: DPP with centre. Seems to have the running in front of Soren. Loves a tackle.
Cons: Job security.
Upside: 4 weeks of 35s gets you 130k.

TMM ($234, BE 16, R13)
Pros: Talent to burn. May get an extended run at junior half.
Cons: May not.
Upside: Could end up making somewhere around Morgan/JT scores, which is over 200k in 6 weeks.

Haas ($225, BE 9, R17)
Pros: Kids a weapon. Broncs are running light on quality forwards.
Cons: Stupid sounding name (Payne in the Haas. Really? Who does that to their kid? Worst since Karmichael). Will be carefully managed as a low-impact players, and therefore a trap.
Upside: If he can pull consistent 25s then 150k is possible.

Thoughts?

Capewell got dropped over Sorensen so he's not ahead of him right now going by that.

Article on Townsville Bulletin - unfortunately I cannot read it due to paywall

"COWBOYS star Michael Morgan has quashed suggestions that he’s set for a permanent switch to fullback to help rejuvenate North Queensland’s misfiring attack."