2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 40

WT2K wrote:Screw it - soro and rein out for brimson and fifita. Still flip flopping between cam and cook for captain

I may well be missing something but why are there so many people talking about trading out Rein? his BE is 12 and Peats not in the 17. Even if Peats does come back it surely will be off the bench for 25 min max. You'd think Rein scores at least 30 in that time. I feel I must be missing something....

Quite a lot of people throwing JFH and RFM out there too. I can see the logic of that in some situations. I.e. potentially a 10 point upgrade to a player that has a low BE, but Im surprised so many people are in the luxurious position of being able to do that. I think JFH hits 50+ this week too. He'll play big minutes I reckon. RFM is a funny one, he has his ups and downs, but he is still averaging 50 and is one of the few players who has a reasonable chance of busting out 70s.

L-Jimmy wrote:Arg. It looks like I'm max trading again this week.

Even after I promised I wouldn't - CScott in for CThompson. Lamb in for Goosie.

I suspect the farm animal trade is a bit of luxury, and may reverse, but Scott looks a bargain at 424k.

IS the theory with the last trade that Gosi won't have the starting edge position when he gets back? Cause last I looked he was due back for the bye round, in which case I would have thought it was worth holding on him?

Revraiser wrote:

Not to create hate, but all year when i post about pod ive got or am considering i get nada, blank. So yes i agree uts very refreshing.

We just like watching you bump!

NewyCoop wrote:Roberts and Bird potentially swapping sides this week. Good for Isaako?

By all means what would i know, but there is a feel that Bird needs to get back to what made him famous - his running game. Get that in order first. But he aint as hoggy as Roberts ultimately.

I agree with both of those comments Rippin

@Krump

WT2K wrote:Screw it - soro and rein out for brimson and fifita. Still flip flopping between cam and cook for captain

Almost the same. Although tossing up if I go Soro to Martin which means I have to go Havilli to Fifi, or get Brimson, Phillips etc for Soro allowing me to go Rein to Fifi instead and keep Havilli.

Krump wrote:
We just like watching you bump!

Bump n' grind ?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Hey mate,

While I don't approach the game you do, many of your trade and strategy options have been pretty unique. So, Im intrigued, how are you travelling now?

If I recall correctly, you were comfortably inside the top 100 before you started pulling out some pretty bold calls. Is the 128 ranking still current?

No currently 708 in Fantasy, 816 in SC. Missed some of the key moves that others caught, Rein, Maloney, Matterson that resulted in both points and cash. Feel like I have the right kind of setup to make ground though. Strategy from here is pretty simple. Get lots of the top forwards that can average 60 each week from here and lots of PODs everywhere else. Trade lots to get high numbers playing in both byes to hopefully gain ground. Hold on hoping for very few injuries at the end, with unique PODs that no-one else has the trades to get in

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I may well be missing something but why are there so many people talking about trading out Rein? his BE is 12 and Peats not in the 17. Even if Peats does come back it surely will be off the bench for 25 min max. You'd think Rein scores at least 30 in that time. I feel I must be missing something....

Quite a lot of people throwing JFH and RFM out there too. I can see the logic of that in some situations. I.e. potentially a 10 point upgrade to a player that has a low BE, but Im surprised so many people are in the luxurious position of being able to do that. I think JFH hits 50+ this week too. He'll play big minutes I reckon. RFM is a funny one, he has his ups and downs, but he is still averaging 50 and is one of the few players who has a reasonable chance of busting out 70s.

I can't see Peats on the bench. If he's fit, he'll start and will play big minutes if he can.

mattnz wrote:

No currently 708 in Fantasy, 816 in SC. Missed some of the key moves that others caught, Rein, Maloney, Matterson that resulted in both points and cash. Feel like I have the right kind of setup to make ground though. Strategy from here is pretty simple. Get lots of the top forwards that can average 60 each week from here and lots of PODs everywhere else. Trade lots to get high numbers playing in both byes to hopefully gain ground. Hold on hoping for very few injuries at the end, with unique PODs that no-one else has the trades to get in

Do you have lots of trades left? I was looking at my team and think it will take 10-11 trades to get my final side. That leaves me with just 6-7 trades post Origin period. My bye numbers are looking like 12-13 for round 13 and a max of 11 in round 17 (I have 10 keepers playing Round 17, realistically I'd say I might be running less than 10 in round 17). It is going to be really interesting to see how this all works out as there seems to be so many trades spent and such a focus on round 13 right now if you've banked trades without sacrificing too much in terms of cash and point generation there could be some gains.

The squad reduction to 21 has made trades at a premium.

Only takes a small amount of injuries/players getting dropped and most people will struggle to cover. Very easy to get in a situation where you are trading every week just to try and get a decent team together

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Do you have lots of trades left? I was looking at my team and think it will take 10-11 trades to get my final side. That leaves me with just 6-7 trades post Origin period. My bye numbers are looking like 12-13 for round 13 and a max of 11 in round 17 (I have 10 keepers playing Round 17, realistically I'd say I might be running less than 10 in round 17). It is going to be really interesting to see how this all works out as there seems to be so many trades spent and such a focus on round 13 right now if you've banked trades without sacrificing too much in terms of cash and point generation there could be some gains.

Myself and a few others have posted in various places breakdowns of the trades (and cash) it will require to get to a final 18. No doubt you've done something similar, but if you look at the numbers with realistic assumptions, my conclusion has been and still is, that there are very few (if any) trades left to be mucking around with a bye strategy. And the numbers don't stack up on sacrificing building bank and your team etc to use those trades on byes instead on what basically amounts to 50 points per trade if you were to use them to increase your bye round numbers.

So in the end my strategy has revolved around building bank and therefore you core squad throughout the season and doing very little in the way of bye planning with the exception of brining in key round 13 guns (Tolo, Taupau, DCE etc) and the odd round 13 playing cash out. I'll revisit my team situation and then decide how any trades I can burn between 13 and 17, but I suspect it'll be 2 max, in which case I reckon 13 in round 13 and 10 or 11 in round 17 will be about standard.

I suspect some teams will make up some ground during this time, but I also think those same teams will fall off the pace thereafter cause their team just won't be as strong.

Milchcow wrote:
The squad reduction to 21 has made trades at a premium.

Only takes a small amount of injuries/players getting dropped and most people will struggle to cover. Very easy to get in a situation where you are trading every week just to try and get a decent team together

Yep. I think meaning getting a final 17 more important than burning trades during the byes.

Can see a lot of teams struggling during the run home.

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Do you have lots of trades left? I was looking at my team and think it will take 10-11 trades to get my final side. That leaves me with just 6-7 trades post Origin period. My bye numbers are looking like 12-13 for round 13 and a max of 11 in round 17 (I have 10 keepers playing Round 17, realistically I'd say I might be running less than 10 in round 17). It is going to be really interesting to see how this all works out as there seems to be so many trades spent and such a focus on round 13 right now if you've banked trades without sacrificing too much in terms of cash and point generation there could be some gains.

No don't have lots of trades left. Assuming Hess and Cook both play origin, but Ponga doesn't I currently have 15 ready to play round 13. Can start saving some trades between now and then and still field 16 or 17 that week. Then will look to max trade between the byes, or close to it, to get 12-14 playing round 17. Should leave me with 2-3 trades post origin for the run home for any injuries and a stacked team.

wolfking wrote:

I can't see Peats on the bench. If he's fit, he'll start and will play big minutes if he can.

Do you think he's gonna start though? With him playing the early game Saturday we may even have confirmation he's out before Fridays game. I'd be holding on any Rein trade till at least then.... I don't think he'll start personally.

Revraiser wrote:

Bump n' grind ?

Ain't nothing wrong with a little of this

Im really leaning towards Lamb/Burgess this week instead of Brimson/Lolo.
Think I could end up with the same amount of points but I don't know if I can trust Lamb to make money, because I don't know a lot about him.. And the Knights scare me as much as the Titans

Anyone wanna ballpark an expectation from Lamb?

Certainly my approach is not to sell out during byes. I can't see it being a worthwhile long-term strategy

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

IS the theory with the last trade that Gosi won't have the starting edge position when he gets back? Cause last I looked he was due back for the bye round, in which case I would have thought it was worth holding on him?

The thinking was based around comparative uncertainties. Goosie should be back for the bye round, and should maintain the edge. But scoring at ~0.4 PPM, even if he takes an 80min slot straight up he won't make the 17 and will therefore contribute only 30 points in R13 + 80-110k over the following 6 rounds (ie to R19).

Lamb's PPM is even more dire, but should be bouyed by kicking duties (both place and as a dominant in-play kicker). He would contribute 35 in R13 + (assuming 35/match) ~200k over the 6 rounds to R16.

So Lamb looks better from that perspective (100k 2 rounds quicker, plus less of the shoulds of Goosie), but fails the 150k pinch-test. Hence my luxury thinking.

.......... I think I've just talked myself into banking the trade