2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 40

mattnz wrote:

No currently 708 in Fantasy, 816 in SC. Missed some of the key moves that others caught, Rein, Maloney, Matterson that resulted in both points and cash. Feel like I have the right kind of setup to make ground though. Strategy from here is pretty simple. Get lots of the top forwards that can average 60 each week from here and lots of PODs everywhere else. Trade lots to get high numbers playing in both byes to hopefully gain ground. Hold on hoping for very few injuries at the end, with unique PODs that no-one else has the trades to get in

OK, perhaps its only fair to see how you are tracking post the byes, seeing as that's a big part of how you've strategised. Will be interesting to see in hindsight (at seasons end) whether you would have done anything differently. One thing I do like about how you play it is the POD strategy - I just think you employed it way too early.

BTW You are never gonna be able to get them all aye - its impossible. Just gotta make the best decisions you can given the situation you are in. Maloney was a pretty big gamble given his history (but a calculated one for many), Rein was a pretty sound bet but no-one expected those first two weeks production, and Matterson, while he has been awesome actually took quite a bit of balls to get on prior to him racking up all those big scores in a row (I still don't have him).

I'll also be interested to see how someone like myself tracks, who hasn't employed any explicit bye strategy, by the time round 18 rolls around. I could be wrong but like I posted before, all the numbers point to focussing trades on making money and getting that final 17/18/19 together ASAP. Time will tell huh!

L-Jimmy wrote:

The thinking was based around comparative uncertainties. Goosie should be back for the bye round, and should maintain the edge. But scoring at ~0.4 PPM, even if he takes an 80min slot straight up he won't make the 17 and will therefore contribute only 30 points in R13 + 80-110k over the following 6 rounds (ie to R19).

Lamb's PPM is even more dire, but should be bouyed by kicking duties (both place and as a dominant in-play kicker). He would contribute 35 in R13 + (assuming 35/match) ~200k over the 6 rounds to R16.

So Lamb looks better from that perspective (100k 2 rounds quicker, plus less of the shoulds of Goosie), but fails the 150k pinch-test. Hence my luxury thinking.

.......... I think I've just talked myself into banking the trade

I think Lamb is a good buy and is should be serviceable as a 2nd half if required and I agree with you analysis re $. So it's just the trading Gosi out part that Im unsure of. You don't have anyone else sitting there instead?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Im really leaning towards Lamb/Burgess this week instead of Brimson/Lolo.
Think I could end up with the same amount of points but I don't know if I can trust Lamb to make money, because I don't know a lot about him.. And the Knights scare me as much as the Titans

Anyone wanna ballpark an expectation from Lamb?

If he can get some of the form he got towards the end of last year, he will be alright I think. Plus keep in mind last week Coggar handed off all the kicking to Ponga. Remains to be seen but I'd say Lamb takes most the kicking.

@Rippin and Tearin

What do you think of bringing in Lamb and Surgess over Brimson and Lolo??

If Brimson somehow does well I may look at him next week.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I think Lamb is a good buy and is should be serviceable as a 2nd half if required and I agree with you analysis re $. So it's just the trading Gosi out part that Im unsure of. You don't have anyone else sitting there instead?

(cough) I, uh, am still holding JT (cough).

Im really torn on who to bring in out of these round 13 guns , Surgess, Taumalolo and Fifita. Trading out Croker and Sorenson for Lamb and just unsure on the gun to bring in

RNGD Analytics wrote:Certainly my approach is not to sell out during byes. I can't see it being a worthwhile long-term strategy

I'm going to have lots of peaked round 13 bye players ready to be culled in that period - Griffin, Gos, Kennar, Thompson, Terepo, Capewell if not starting, Moses, Brooks etc. Can use them to bring in Widdop, SJ, new cash cows, McCullough, Mannering, Harris, Yeo (at CTR) etc. Lots of good options to replace them with.

0rangejuice wrote:Im really torn on who to bring in out of these round 13 guns , Surgess, Taumalolo and Fifita. Trading out Croker and Sorenson for Lamb and just unsure on the gun to bring in

Try whacking the scores you expect from them into MTB's little gem at http://www.nrlfantasy.com.au/players.php . Then go and look at the predicted 3 game scores, and see who you could or couldn't afford?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:@Rippin and Tearin

What do you think of bringing in Lamb and Surgess over Brimson and Lolo??

If Brimson somehow does well I may look at him next week.

Depends on your team/cash situation I guess. Whats your team looking like?

I like the Lamb pick, but only if you need the money and the scorer, and I definitely prefer Tolo over Surgess. Too much unknown with Surgess (e.g. (without having actually looked at the numbers, my memory is he scores way more at lock that prop/edge and its not clear to me what role he will actually have) also the guy is a book head and keeps finding himself on the sidelines. You are tracking well at the moment, not sure I would risk going Surgess given your position.

I don't know anything about Brimson, but Titans halves have not been good, so I wouldn't be banking on him as anything other than a cash out. Who knows if he will still be there to add to you round 17 numbers.

Tolo looks back in business to me.

Post your team bro and I'll take a quick look.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

OK, perhaps its only fair to see how you are tracking post the byes, seeing as that's a big part of how you've strategised. Will be interesting to see in hindsight (at seasons end) whether you would have done anything differently. One thing I do like about how you play it is the POD strategy - I just think you employed it way too early.

BTW You are never gonna be able to get them all aye - its impossible. Just gotta make the best decisions you can given the situation you are in. Maloney was a pretty big gamble given his history (but a calculated one for many), Rein was a pretty sound bet but no-one expected those first two weeks production, and Matterson, while he has been awesome actually took quite a bit of balls to get on prior to him racking up all those big scores in a row (I still don't have him).

I'll also be interested to see how someone like myself tracks, who hasn't employed any explicit bye strategy, by the time round 18 rolls around. I could be wrong but like I posted before, all the numbers point to focussing trades on making money and getting that final 17/18/19 together ASAP. Time will tell huh!

I actually felt pretty unlucky with some of my key trade ins as part of POD strategy. Lots of players that were killing it for 2-3 weeks and looked on fire, then suddenly started scoring badly from the week I traded them in, Friend, Brooks, RTS as prime examples that have seen me drop rankings, as others were getting Matterson, Maloney, Rein instead. Looking for some of them to start to come right again, like RTS this week, have had Taupau from the start and finally getting the benefit of holding him too.

L-Jimmy wrote:

(cough) I, uh, am still holding JT (cough).

haha, I actually like JT at his current price. Almost bought him in VSDT this week.

0rangejuice wrote:Im really torn on who to bring in out of these round 13 guns , Surgess, Taumalolo and Fifita. Trading out Croker and Sorenson for Lamb and just unsure on the gun to bring in

Hands down Tolo and Fifi for me.

Cogger to Martin and Arrow to Tolo or just hold off on the 2nd trade? Means both Sua and Martin will be in my 17

Verbal Kint wrote:

Ain't nothing wrong with a little of this

Thrice a week or somethins gotta give

Brimson and Taumalolo it is then.

I don't think Brimson will score over 30. But at his price it shouldn't be the end of the world.

The party coming around quick. R Kelly theme? Actually, no SILENCE HIM!

danseels1985 wrote:Means both Sua and Martin will be in my 17

I think these guys can combine for 80 points, I don't see it as a big problem playing both this week (I am, due to injuries).

Martin's base stats were solid last week and follow his NSW cup trend.

Sua has been a tricky one with minutes, I'm feeling better about his chances of playing 80 mins again though this week, now that Bird has gone back to centres. Last week Sua was subbed when Bird shifted into right edge when Niko came on. Shouldn't happen this week. Always the risk that Opacic gets some odd 10 mins at the end of the game and its Sua that misses out though.

mattnz wrote:

I actually felt pretty unlucky with some of my key trade ins as part of POD strategy. Lots of players that were killing it for 2-3 weeks and looked on fire, then suddenly started scoring badly from the week I traded them in, Friend, Brooks, RTS as prime examples that have seen me drop rankings, as others were getting Matterson, Maloney, Rein instead. Looking for some of them to start to come right again, like RTS this week, have had Taupau from the start and finally getting the benefit of holding him too.

Will be bittersweet when Hess bulldozes Brooks tonight!

my tv broke wrote:Some bizarre trades going on in here this week if you ask me.

RFM - averaging 50 and no reason to suggest that will stop.
Arrow - missing one week to rest.


Admittedly, I am strongly considering trading out Murray, but there is definitely a chance his role has now changed slightly which will affect his scoring.

I may be wrong, but I feel it could be a symptom of less cash being around this year with the 21 player set up. Trading RFM steps it up to a top tier gun with relatively little changeover.

In regards Arrow, I know you've read it in here a thousand times, but you get at most 2 scores from him in the next 4 rounds. That is best case scenario. You may get no scores (my gut feel is he is back next week though) in the next month. You may get 2 injury ravaged scores which fucks your Overall position and also makes the gulf between Arrow and said other guns larger.

Arrow to Hess @SI ?