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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 56

    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:29 pm

    danseels1985 wrote:Am tossing up the idea of Niukore but at this stage I have Olive to Fainu locked in.

    Cook
    Fifita TPJ
    Taumalolo Jurbo Harris
    DCE ARey
    Mitchell Isaako
    Tedesco Ponga Mbye

    Smith
    McInnes
    Brown
    Arrow

    Sua
    Brimson
    Hetherington
    Olive

    Any other suggestions? 9 trades and no bank but I think all I need is an upgrade for TPJ(Taupau) and Isaako and a decent 18th man and I’m done. Reassurances please guys?

    Is your cash that tight you can't wait a week on Fainu, it just seems safer.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:29 pm

    With TMM’s low BE he is due for a 30-40K upgrade this week. Should I trade this round or next?
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    Post by Pain Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:40 pm

    Milchcow wrote:OK. 2nd attempt at the best final 17.

    I have taken all players averages, discounted their best and worst score. Then projected total points for the rest of the season based on that.
    Players must have played at least 5 games (to get a meaningful average - so Rhyse Martin, Robbie Farah are discounted)
    I am assuming all origin players backup after R17.
    I am assuming no changes to NSW or QLD origin teams (Ben Hunt missing R17, Ryan James playing R17 are about the only selections that might stuff with the projections)

    The ones I have bolded are the ones I would consider "must haves" as they are that much better than the next best available.
    Taupau, JTrbo, DCE, James borderline must haves. Taupau and JTrbo I've left out due to potential missing games this week and R18 respectively for rep duty. DCE is probably a must have if Hodkinson stays on the bench and he gets kicking back. If Ryan James doesn't play origin he is very handy as well.

    I've left Cook as captain over Smith as he has the highest average, although Smith/SJ have better totals due to more games played


    Cook (559)
    Fifita (513) Taupau (498)
    Taumalolo (507) Harris (522) JTrbo (490)
    SJ (593) DCE (474)
    Cotric (393) Aitken (390)
    Ponga (510) Tedesco(443) TTrbo (403)

    Smith (591)
    McInnes (539)
    James (511)
    Arrow (477)



    If Rhyse Martin continues to start in the back row and averages over 50 (current average 55), he'll be a must have player in your final 17.
    Robbie Farah would need to average 53 or higher in his games at the Tigers to make the best final 17.


    Next best

    FRF/2RF/HOK
    Brown (464)
    Kikau (465)
    Yeo (460)
    Crichton (459)
    JDB (455)
    Alvaro (452)
    Hess (452)
    Tapine (451)

    HLF/WFB/CTR
    Milford (456)
    ARey (428)
    Munster (415)
    Hunt (405)
    RTS (400)
    Cleary (400)
    Mbye (395)
    Brenko Lee (383)
    Oates (381)
    Ferguson (377)
    Marsters (376)
    Hopoate (374)
    Jarrod Croker (363)
    Jesse Ramien (359)
    Latrell Mitchell (359)



    Some absentees people might be interested in - and their projected remaining points based on adjusted averages


    Surgess (405)
    Murray (400)
    Gallen (395)
    TPJ (376)
    Friend (376)
    JFH (369)

    A projection in this way for someone like Murray is a bit useless given his score depends a lot on if he starts or is benched rather than his season average, likewise for TPJ. So obviously you have to use your own guesswork on what they'll do for the run home.

    Great analysis! Thanks for doing this and sharing.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:48 pm

    What’s everyone’s thoughts on the whole Glenn and TPJ situation, TPJ killed at at 2RF when Glenn was out. Has Bennett rewarded him with the start now? Will he keep it over S’ua when/if Gillett gets back? He can be a 55-60 pt player at 2RF without scoring tries
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    Post by mickspicks Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:58 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:What’s everyone’s thoughts on the whole Glenn and TPJ situation, TPJ killed at at 2RF when Glenn was out. Has Bennett rewarded him with the start now? Will he keep it over S’ua when/if Gillett gets back? He can be a 55-60 pt player at 2RF without scoring tries

    Gillett I think will not be back this season. Maybe someone else can link me the piece written a few weeks ago, but the news was that his neck hasn’t gotten much better and it’s now “indefinite” for his recovery time.

    Su’a seems to be the 80 minute 2RF now. Even before Glenn got injured, the trend was heading that way. TPJ started the season at prop, but I think with the rise of Ofa, Bennett feels confident in playing TPJ in the 2RF to start. Honestly, I think TPJ this week starts in 2RF, comes off after 30-35, then with 20 to go jumps in at prop. I am not sure how Sims returning will impact this rotation.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:00 pm

    I mickspicks wrote:

    Gillett I think will not be back this season. Maybe someone else can link me the piece written a few weeks ago, but the news was that his neck hasn’t gotten much better and it’s now “indefinite” for his recovery time.

    Su’a seems to be the 80 minute 2RF now. Even before Glenn got injured, the trend was heading that way. TPJ started the season at prop, but I think with the rise of Ofa, Bennett feels confident in playing TPJ in the 2RF to start. Honestly, I think TPJ this week starts in 2RF, comes off after 30-35, then with 20 to go jumps in at prop. I am not sure how Sims returning will impact this rotation.
    So with 10 trades left I probably have to get rid of S’ua, TPJ, Brimson, TMM
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    Post by mickspicks Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:06 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:
    So with 10 trades left I probably have to get rid of S’ua, TPJ, Brimson, TMM

    Depends on the rest of your team. Brimson and TMM yes. Su’A probably keeps his role and therefore appears to be a solid 40points. TPJ depends on the broncos style of play but has a huge upside, good for 40-55 mins...probably has a few big games as broncos will be on cusp of eight.
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    Post by Blain Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:51 am

    Confirmation Ma'u out for the season, Niukore first dibs;

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/eels/brad-arthur-has-given-his-players-nine-games-to-prove-they-deserve-to-keep-their-spots-at-the-parramatta-eels/news-story/8bcc362b8dc3595bff0122b8085d7bd8

    At $287k, he's a decent cash out option. I'd wait this week if you can, see if he can handle bigger minutes (BA even mentions this). Fainu would still be a safer option.

    People talking about Mann playing half next week - Surely Hunt is going to be dropped from Origin? Or is the goss is he has another game to prove himself.
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:04 am

    Seems like a bad decision to me to make a decision between Lewis and Fainu this week unless you are very low on cash. If I had to make a decision it would probably be Lewis purely because he plays next week
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    Post by awanamafia Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:15 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:Seems like a bad decision to me to make a decision between Lewis and Fainu this week unless you are very low on cash. If I had to make a decision it would probably be Lewis purely because he plays next week

    Agree, surely Fainu is only an option for those with the trades to cash him out later in the season. How much cash would he need to make to be worth the ~25 points you miss from Lewis? If he averages 40 he'll make ~$130K by start of round 20, giving you enough to afford an upgrade any to another with a 9point higher avg (130/14.5)? E.g. Hopaoate > TTurbo. This would give you 6 * 9 = 45 points extra. SO.. you're up 20points but down a trade? Does this math make sense??

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    Post by wolfking Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:23 am

    Blain wrote:Confirmation Ma'u out for the season, Niukore first dibs;

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/eels/brad-arthur-has-given-his-players-nine-games-to-prove-they-deserve-to-keep-their-spots-at-the-parramatta-eels/news-story/8bcc362b8dc3595bff0122b8085d7bd8

    At $287k, he's a decent cash out option. I'd wait this week if you can, see if he can handle bigger minutes (BA even mentions this). Fainu would still be a safer option.

    People talking about Mann playing half next week - Surely Hunt is going to be dropped from Origin? Or is the goss is he has another game to prove himself.

    I dont see Kev dropping him to be honest.
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:58 am

    In round 17 I'll be doing some very sideways trades just for the points but the replacements seem to be in much better form & scoring better:
    Crichton out - T. Harris in
    Fifita out - R. James in

    Now I just have to decide how to get SJ in.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:59 am

    White Lightning wrote:In round 17 I'll be doing some very sideways trades just for the points but the replacements seem to be in much better form & scoring better:
    Crichton out - T. Harris in
    Fifita out - R. James in

    Now I just have to decide how to get SJ in.

    Until Chrichton and Fifita both bust out an 80 this week.
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    Post by Fortitude Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:03 am

    White Lightning wrote:In round 17 I'll be doing some very sideways trades just for the points but the replacements seem to be in much better form & scoring better:
    Crichton out - T. Harris in
    Fifita out - R. James in

    Now I just have to decide how to get SJ in.

    RD17 was always going to be like this.

    With everyone seemingly going for the 'make my 17 as strong as possible early' approach, and the smaller amount of recognised keepers playing 17, there was always going to create the situation of sideways trades for points. It seems only some people have the trades to be able to do this safely.

    I'm on the trade out Fifita train too. Risky as F. But, it mixes things up which is cool.

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    Post by Fortitude Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:06 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Until Chrichton and Fifita both bust out an 80 this week.

    Fifita. injury concerns and Woods included, high BE. is a calculated risk.

    Crichton, hasn't performed consistently this year. Rabbits playing well though. Id say Crichton is Harris is a much bigger risk.
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:11 am

    Anyone know how long RFM is expected to be out for?

    All I can find is possible broken hand?

    Thanks
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:17 am

    I think sideways trading Fifita is a calculated risk because as mentioned he's struggling with a knee injury & with both Gallen & Woods it could be argued that Fifita's minutes will drop. Of course don't be surprised if Fifita knocks out an 80 pointer because he is more than capable.
    The sideways trade of Crichton is based on him missing round 17 re origin & if origin 1 is any indication then he could very well miss round 18. So that means he'll only play 1 game of the next 3 whereas someone like T. Harris will play all 3 games.
    I will not be sideways trading to get SJ in because DCE will return to big scores with D. Walker back & also with Hodkinson on the bench he'll retain the gk/big km's. I can't let A-Rey go either because he's a h/b in probably the best team atm as last week proved when he knocked out 66 points.
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:23 am

    lukeaye wrote:Anyone know how long RFM is expected to be out for?

    All I can find is possible broken hand?

    Thanks

    He went for scans on his wrist but nothing has been officially released so there's no word yet on his recovery time.
    NRL Physio says if his wrist is broken then a 3-6 week recovery.
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    Post by wolfking Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:35 am

    Fifita with a week off coming up could help his knee recover a bit too.
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    Post by wolfking Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:36 am

    Blain wrote:Confirmation Ma'u out for the season, Niukore first dibs;

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/eels/brad-arthur-has-given-his-players-nine-games-to-prove-they-deserve-to-keep-their-spots-at-the-parramatta-eels/news-story/8bcc362b8dc3595bff0122b8085d7bd8

    At $287k, he's a decent cash out option. I'd wait this week if you can, see if he can handle bigger minutes (BA even mentions this). Fainu would still be a safer option.

    People talking about Mann playing half next week - Surely Hunt is going to be dropped from Origin? Or is the goss is he has another game to prove himself.

    You have me second guessing Mann now. I wish there was more info on why he's taken Nightingale's spot.

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