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    NRLFF community managed fantasy team

    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:28 pm

    The difference is that most casual players are just picking their favorite players (or those they have heard of). More serious coaches look for value and ignore sentiment. But the majority of players are casuals so they heavily skew the statistics. We are only really worried about the 1% of teams who are competitive (and 100% of these could be included in the 10% that own Arrow), and there is no data on what these teams are doing. This is why worrying about ownership is silly, because you are preoccupied with what the opinions of the 99% of the useless numpties who will no doubt be ghost shipping by round 3 think about fantasy picks


    Addendum:
    When it comes to selecting your guns and mid-rangers,
    If you are taking <10-11% as the definition for who is a POD

    -Every centre but Latrell and Capewell are PODs
    -Every prop but Fifita, Taupau and TPJ are PODs
    -Every Hooker but Cook and Smith are PODs (edit: and technically Radley)


    Last edited by Pookus McFly on Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:30 pm; edited 5 times in total
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:28 pm

    Chewie wrote:We could also get ourselves three different base teams by three different selection processes and vote on which one of those three teams turned out the best.

    We still have three weeks til the season starts.


    I'm happy to do a 1 vote transferrable system if people want to test it, based on the following rules.

    Have up to 20 available in each position, (max for the poll to work on here).

    Everyone can vote for anyone they want in each position, 21 votes per person across all positions.

    At the end we take the players that have the most votes and form a team that is salary cap compliant and fits the requirements for positions. It is likely we end up with 18 or 19 players that are clear leaders and have 2 or 3 options that there can be a 2nd poll on to select the team.

    Those voting are able to change their votes at any time, so if 3 players in 1 position are close to each other and your own pick is out of the race in that position, you can transfer your vote so it gets counted out of the 3 players that are in the running.

    At TLT, this can be run again easily, with 24 hours for initial team selection and another 24 hours to select between the best of the available cap compliant options to finalize the team.

    It is fast, simple, and transparent to run. It also sets us up well for polls for future rounds, voting on candidates to trade out, trade in or not trade.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:30 pm


    Never underestimate the amount of unmanaged ghost teams out there.

    Even the best players never get more than 50% ownership.

    There certainly is a bit of group think around here. If someone does a nice post on why Jai Arrow is underpriced everyone will get swayed and jump on him. We are also very quick to jump on someone after a good trial performance.
    Most casual fantasy players would barely be aware Parra played a trial last week, let alone that Reed Mahoney made a high tackle count in it.


    Mahoney/Egan/Nikora would be unknown names to a large percentage of fantast players, and will either see ownership jump, or have every one on here dump them, based on what happens over the next couple of weeks.

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:32 pm


    Also if you want to participate in the community team, but don't want others to game things based on your selections, then keep things secret by sending me a pm with your team in it.

    But whatever happens, we'll get the best results if everyone just crates their team value as independantly as possible (just by being on and reading this forum a lot, your pool of talent will be targeted towards the players we all mention here)
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:54 pm

    No Worries wrote:

    Some of those differences are mind blowing, even as a shit fantasy player I can see value in some of those guys without the forum. But it does raise the question are we all a bunh of sheep ?

    The opposite. Group think at its best.

    We have our players like Edwards and McCulloch that Joe Public will overlook because they don’t use MTBs site pre season, spreadsheets, planners or frankly care that much about origin, bye rounds or value!its perfect storm for our celeb team Smile
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:32 pm

    The interest in this idea certainly spiked when it became a celeb team lol.

    I think it's coming together nicely.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:50 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:The interest in this idea certainly spiked when it became a celeb team lol.

    I think it's coming together nicely.

    Can't wait for the Page 51 party on this thread Dance
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:58 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:The interest in this idea certainly spiked when it became a celeb team lol.

    I think it's coming together nicely.
    Probably stuffed any chance of a prize though
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:03 pm

    Andrew McCullough 4
    Ryan Mahoney 2
    Andrew Fifita 4
    David Klemmer 1
    Cameron Murray 3
    Jai Arrow 5
    Tevita Pangai Junior 5
    Nathan Cleary 3
    Dylan Brown 2
    Jack Bird 3
    Latrell Mitchell 2
    Dylan Edwards 4
    Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 1
    Hame Sele 3
    Bryce Cartwright 1
    Mikaele Ravalawa 1
    Briton Nikora 1
    Payne Haas 2
    Lachlan Burr 2
    Alex Twal 1
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:13 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:Surely going as cookie cutter as possible is the way to play this?

    If certain high owned players fail you at least go down with the pack and a scant few teams filled with uniques make some headway.
    Too many PODS that fail and suddenly The Fanatic is an easybeat team languishing behind the bulk of the masses.

    I also have no problem going cookie cutter to start. It's a long season and with the knowledge here our trade choices will stand us in good stead I'd think.
    code delta
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    Post by code delta Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:23 pm

    Chewie wrote:
    Can't wait for the Page 51 party on this thread Dance

    Of cause the gif celeb around here would say that.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:27 pm

    Krump wrote:
    Probably stuffed any chance of a prize though

    What are your concerns with the way the team is shaping up? There are probably only a couple of questionable selections from my perspective, nothing that would mean it didn't have a decent chance,.
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:33 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    What are your concerns with the way the team is shaping up? There are probably only a couple of questionable selections from my perspective, nothing that would mean it didn't have a decent chance,.
    I meant that I doubt any celebrity teams are eligible. You only need to see the auto fill thread to know what the gurus here are capable of.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:01 pm

    Krump wrote:
    Probably stuffed any chance of a prize though

    No KFC if we win Sad
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:03 pm

    code delta wrote:

    Of cause the gif celeb around here would say that.

    Look who's talking
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:35 pm

    Just calculated new team, now have 14 peoples votes

    Cameron Murray
    Jai Arrow
    Joe Stimson
    Kurt Capewell
    Briton Nikora
    Lachlan Burr
    Kerrod Holland
    Zac Lomax
    Jack Bird
    Andrew Fifita
    Tevita Pangai Junior
    Aiden Tolman
    Payne Haas
    Dylan Brown
    Michael Morgan
    Adam Keighran
    Connor Watson
    Reed Mahoney
    Andrew McCullough
    Dylan Edwards
    Brett Morris
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:49 pm

    Interesting point about gaming the system.

    mattnz gave Brett Morris 5 points, and he made the team. As long as he gave Morris 2 points or more, Morris would have made the team anyway. If he gave Morris only 1 point, he would have missed out and CNZ would have made it instead.

    Mattnz gave Wayde Egan 1 point, and he missed the team. If he had given Egan 4 points or more, Egan would have made the team.


    He gave Cameron Murray 1 point, but he could have given him about -20 and he'd still make the team, as Murray is far and away the most popular choice so far, and there ain't nothing any indidivual can do about that.


    Post TLT choices might change this up anyway

    Wayde Egan will become almost an insta-pick or out of contention entirely depending on how he and Katoa get named.

    If CNK gets the raiders fullback confirmed, will he gain enough popularity to oust Brett Morris?
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:20 pm

    Still looks very similar, who's next in line with Haas suspended?
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:27 pm

    At Milchy's request I have set up a 2nd method to put a team together. The rules of the method are specified at https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t814-celeb-community-team-vote-for-hookers-start-here-for-instructions#255029

    The only issue I have found so far is that I can't add poll options after the thread is created, but should be enough options there to get a trial run going. Mods are you able to edit a poll after it has been created?
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:02 am

    5 Cameron Smith
    4 Latrell Mitchell
    4 James Tedesco
    4 Michael Morgan
    4 Cameron Murray
    4 Villiame Kikau
    3 Sam Burgess
    2 Joe Stimson
    2 Reed Mahoney
    2 Briton Nikora
    2 Tevita Pangai Junior
    2 Dylan Napa
    2 Dylan Edwards
    2 Dylan Brown
    2 Brett Morris
    1 Adam Keighran
    1 Andrew McCullough
    1 Tevita Tatola
    1 Zac Lomax
    1 Jordan Kahu
    1 Jake Friend

      Current date/time is Sat Nov 16, 2024 3:21 am