NRLFF community managed fantasy team

Welshy wrote:

To do all this every week on top of your own team is a massive testament to yourself and dedication to this forum! Outstanding effort mate

Thanks @Welshy and @Code Delta.

To be fair though there are many here who aren't "organisers" but are just as valuable in keeping the team/discussion going. This team will only ever be as good as all the help I get from people voting and proposing ideas. It's been fun so far though.

And yeah this team is beating my team overall. It's kinda fun to try and test my skills to beat the community team though

I'll have a crack at the team projection now Cap'n, to save you the effort. You are doing a great job mate. I reckon we start moving up the rankings steadily from now!

OK guys, hopefully this makes sense. Here's how I project my cash situation. I list my players, then take a punt at what they will average. Project their price forward and sum the total.

Then I work out how much money I need to generate to get to a 'gun' team by subtracting my current cash position and current team projected value away from the cost of the 'gun' team (see below for how I define that).

That leaves a total amount that I will need to generate. As a general rule of thumb, IMO each CC should generate $150k on average and required 2 trades each. So in our case (post hypothetical trades), we need to generate ~$1.1m. ($1.1m / $150k) * 2 = 15 Trades.

Hopefully the pics below help put some numbers to the story. I've done a before and after based on bringing in Ponga and CHT for Macca and Burns (obviously that could change). Reason I did that though is to illustrate the value of making sure we have 'active cows'.

Oh and the other assumption I made in the analysis is that Burns and Brown are no longer making money as I feel, unless something changes, we will probably have to trade them out before they return from injury.

Hope this all makes sense.



EDIT: If you dont like any of the assumptions and want me to change things let me know, or if you want to see how things look based on any other trade combinations I can do that.

TLDR - IMO we need to generate cash ASAP, perhaps somewhere in the ball park of $1.4m (pre round 5 trades). I suspect the best way to do that will be double trading each week for the next few weeks at least, 1 up to a value gun (i.e. Ponga, Crichton etc) and 1 down to a new cow (CHT, Xeri, Okunbor etc). We have several players that we can make a good case to trade out in the coming weeks including but not limited to Lane, Macca, Burns, Brown, & Bird so I can see all sorts of options that will get us moving in the right direction.

RnT, am I write in assuming that your required cash is generated assuming that we buy in all our final team guns at no discount?
Eg we could trade Lane to Ponga this week, for a cost of $54k, but that improves our team value by $150k on your projections. If we time our trades right (and get a bit lucky) we won't need $1400k to get $1400k in team value.


Also, whilst guys like Tedesco, Fifita Taupau are contributing to our rise in team value, realistically it doesn't matter what happens to their price. Unless they get injured they wont ever be leaving our team, so money made is irrelevant for future planning purposes.

My ideas for trade in targets

Ponga $650k
Back at fullback he is a final team WFB gun. Also can play in halves to give us some Cartwright insurance. Probably OK to wait a week, he's unlikely to go massively up or down in price this week.

Crichton $658k
Pretty much bottomed out and a good time to bring in a @RF who should be final team gun

Cook $884k
Probably one to bring in soon, but probably no turgent this week.

Bateman $742k
We still don't have him and he's a final team CTR who is still rising in price.

Nick Meaney $396k
Cheaper option at WFB who looks capable of solid scores. Probably his price is too awkward and we want to go bigger or cheaper but just putting him there as an option.


We'll need cash, so

Okunbur $304k
Looks to have a high work rate and tackle busting ability (Cam Smith busting ability a bonus)
Plenty of cash short term, and hopefully sustains it long enough to get us good returns

CHT $258k
Killed it in first week. How sustainable is it. Assuming he stays in the team and doesn't get dropped for Keighran's return after a few poor games then there is money there. Also helps us out in troublesome halves position. If we don't get Ponga this week (and Dylan Brown not named) then I think CHT probably needs to come in for halves coverage

Xerri $233k
Cheaper than the other 2, but looks a class player and he'll likely score big at some point


For trade outs

McCullough $694k
We have hooker coverage in Rein/Mahoney and he's not getting the scores we want. Flick him for someone who'll make money

Lane $596k
I wouldn't be rushing to sell him. I think last week was an outlier low score and he still good for a 45+ average.

Brown or Burns would be the other one 1 ditch, depending on what injury news we hear during the week. Burns might be out too long to keep on the sidelines, but if we do trade him out, we will probably still consider trading him back in when he returns which needs to be considered.


Few other random players.
Taukeiaho is finally hitting the scores people have been hoping for for the past 2-3 years.
Twal is a good FRF scorer if we want one
One note, if we keep Brown+Burns, they combine well for a Sivo/Rava loop this week (but with Sivo/Rava playing in consecutive games there's a tight timeframe to execute the loop)

Milchy wrote:
RnT, am I write in assuming that your required cash is generated assuming that we buy in all our final team guns at no discount?
Eg we could trade Lane to Ponga this week, for a cost of $54k, but that improves our team value by $150k on your projections. If we time our trades right (and get a bit lucky) we won't need $1400k to get $1400k in team value.


Also, whilst guys like Tedesco, Fifita Taupau are contributing to our rise in team value, realistically it doesn't matter what happens to their price. Unless they get injured they wont ever be leaving our team, so money made is irrelevant for future planning purposes.

Yeah kinda, although not exactly.

Perhaps the bit that is confusing is that I've translated the amount of money required to generate into how many cash cows we would need. However as you rightly point out some of that money will be generated by getting value guys. For example perhaps Crichton next week will generate $100k or something.

So in answer to your question, no, the amount of cash required is simply the cost of the final or 'gun' team minus what we currently have now (i.e. cash in bank + projected value of all our existing players). So, in the 'after' scenario I posted up, that includes the projected value gained by grabbing Ponga this week at a discount.

So yeah if we traded Lane to Ponga this week as our only trade, you are right, our team projected value would increase by $150k at the cost of $54k meaning we would only need to then make $1.3m (instead of $1.4). So that's kinda the whole point. Time the trades as best we can to reduce that money required amount to zero as fast as possible (the tradeoff is of course current points per week).

So the before after scenario I posted reduces the amount of money we would need to make from $1.4m (before trades) to $1.1m because of the increased projected value of the current team by ~$90k (due to going from macca to ponga $60k & Burns CHT $30k) and adding to our cash pile $210k = total generation = $300k.

So the numbers need to updated weekly to take into account trades etc to figure out how much money you still need to make.

Does that make sense?

As for guys like Teddy Fifita etc, you are right in that assuming they are keepers it doesn't really matter what happens to their price, but for the way I am doing things, you do need to take their projected price rise into account. I.e. taking into account the value in getting ponga at $650k vs getting him at his max projected value $750k.

It may be a bit of a convoluted method, but essentially the premise is getting to a gun team as defined by three 60 point guns, five 55 point guns and so on and then figuring out how much more money you need to make to get there, taking into account the fact you already have some of those players in your team already (Fifi, Teddy, etc).

Milchy wrote:
My ideas for trade in targets

Ponga $650k
Back at fullback he is a final team WFB gun. Also can play in halves to give us some Cartwright insurance. Probably OK to wait a week, he's unlikely to go massively up or down in price this week.

Crichton $658k
Pretty much bottomed out and a good time to bring in a @RF who should be final team gun

Cook $884k
Probably one to bring in soon, but probably no turgent this week.

Bateman $742k
We still don't have him and he's a final team CTR who is still rising in price.

Nick Meaney $396k
Cheaper option at WFB who looks capable of solid scores. Probably his price is too awkward and we want to go bigger or cheaper but just putting him there as an option.


We'll need cash, so

Okunbur $304k
Looks to have a high work rate and tackle busting ability (Cam Smith busting ability a bonus)
Plenty of cash short term, and hopefully sustains it long enough to get us good returns

CHT $258k
Killed it in first week. How sustainable is it. Assuming he stays in the team and doesn't get dropped for Keighran's return after a few poor games then there is money there. Also helps us out in troublesome halves position. If we don't get Ponga this week (and Dylan Brown not named)  then I think CHT probably needs to come in for halves coverage

Xerri $233k
Cheaper than the other 2, but looks a class player and he'll likely score big at some point


For trade outs

McCullough $694k
We have hooker coverage in Rein/Mahoney and he's not getting the scores we want. Flick him for someone who'll make money

Lane $596k
I wouldn't be rushing to sell him. I think last week was an outlier low score and he still good for a 45+ average.

Brown or Burns would be the other one 1 ditch, depending on what injury news we hear during the week. Burns might be out too long to keep on the sidelines, but if we do trade him out, we will probably still consider trading him back in when he returns which needs to be considered.


Few other random players.
Taukeiaho is finally hitting the scores people have been hoping for for the past 2-3 years.
Twal is a good FRF scorer if we want one
One note, if we keep Brown+Burns, they combine well for a Sivo/Rava loop this week (but with Sivo/Rava playing in consecutive games there's a tight timeframe to execute the loop)

I pretty much agree with all of this. The only other thing I'd say is that some additional weight needs to be given to guns/potential guns playing 12, preferably at value. Aptly named Cap'n pointed this out in his earlier post so it would be worth while starting to think who they might be: Surgess, Bateman seem like the big ones we dont have but others I have jotted down that could be interesting over time include: Tapine, Brimson, James, Fotuaika, Fainu, Tolo, Kikau, Moses - no hurry in any of theses but worth keeping an eye on I reckon - Im sure there are many more.

I'd be a fan of Ponga and CHT/Okunbor this week, probably for Macca and Burns (and I agree we probably bring Burns back in when he returns from injury).

There's tradeoffs with CHT v Okunbor: Okunbor probably makes more than CHT this week and has the potential to go quite big whereas CHT v Souths away probably has less chance to go well. But CHT would give us the better looping option probably Carty and CHT as the 2nd half.

With only Brown as the loop guy, and Okunbor as the trade in, I think the loop option is a bit weaker.

If I had to make a call, I'd probably go the 'better' pick and take Okunbor this week - I think the value of the loop is over-rated. Have another look at CHT and then make a call as to who the better CC is for next week and grab them.

Some great insights gents. I wont go back over stuff, you're smarter than me anyway

I'd be leaning towards Ponga and Chanel IN this week. Tricky with both OK and Xerri also looking like great cash generating options. It looks like a split vote coming up..... We cant get them all unfortunately

OUT Lane and Burns. Macca gets lucky.....

Rippin and Tearin wrote:
There's tradeoffs with CHT v Okunbor: Okunbor probably makes more than CHT this week and has the potential to go quite big whereas CHT v Souths away probably has less chance to go well. But CHT would give us the better looping option probably Carty and CHT as the 2nd half.

Unless we are planning on getting the other guy in next week, cash made this week is not the priority.
Most important factor is how much more their price will go up. if they both average 30-35 long term, then CHT is better as he'll make more money.
If you think Okunbor can sustain a higher average then he might still be worth it.

Positional coverage is a factor which is slightly in favour of CHT.


For the gun trade I am thinking Bateman or Crichton might be a goer. Get a keeper in before they get too out of reach

Bring Ponga and Xerri/CHT/Okunbur/other cashie in next week.

You're a wise cow

What a team this would be with Bateman this week and Ponga next week

Milchy wrote:

Unless we are planning on getting the other guy in next week, cash made this week is not the priority.
Most important factor is how much more their price will go up. if they both average 30-35 long term, then CHT is better as he'll make more money.
If you think Okunbor can sustain a higher average then he might still be worth it.

Positional coverage is a factor which is slightly in favour of CHT.


For the gun trade I am thinking Bateman or Crichton might be a goer. Get a keeper in before they get too out of reach

Bring Ponga and Xerri/CHT/Okunbur/other cashie in next week.

Of course, that was why I pointed it out.

In order to afford all the upgrades I assume we want to get, we are gonna have to find the cash from somewhere. Cant cashout to dead 212k players yet as we need to make $. So yup, agree with you, the choice of CC this week depends on next weeks strategy at the least. If we want both, probably Okie this week. If we get CHT this week, it should be based on forgoing Okie

Am I right in thinking at the current time we are trying to grab Ponga, Bateman and Crichton? If so According to MTBs site (and there are some accuracy issues here):

Bateman at 55 goes to $782 (+40k) $804, then $815 in the next three weeks (up $73k overall).
Crichton at 55 goes to $683 (+25k) $715, then $743 (up $85k overall).
Ponga at 50 goes to $660 (+10) $677, then $694 (up $44k overall).

Suggests the order of upgrade should probably be as written above....

In terms of CCs:

Okie at 30 goes to $370 (+66k) $416, then $442 (up $138k overall).
CHT at 30 goes to $312 (+54k) $355, then $388 (up $130k overall).
Xeri at 30 goes to $269 (+46k) $307, then $341 (up $108k overall).

Suggest if we were to bring all three in, probably in that order too.

Therefore its entirely possible to run a three week strategy of:

This week: Macca and Burns to Bateman and Okie = $70k CIB
Next week: Lane and Bird to Crichton and CHT = ~$170k CIB
Week 3: Could do for example Mahoney and Burr to Ponga and Xeri and likely have over $200k CIB

Obviously a whole lot could change, as could the players named above, but my point is that we could run that kind of strategy given the players on the board at the moment. I think it would be worth hashing out if that is the direction we are going in now,,, or not.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Am I right in thinking at the current time we are trying to grab Ponga, Bateman and Crichton? If so According to MTBs site (and there are some accuracy issues here):

I think we should also be looking at Cook or Smith as premium hooker option.

But unless another gun puts up a poor score to drop some cash, then those are the best value tradeins.

Klemmer and Twal are other considerations for keeper level forwards at a discount that we may want to consider.

Milchy wrote:

I think we should also be looking at Cook or Smith as premium hooker option.

But unless another gun puts up a poor score to drop some cash, then those are the best value tradeins.

Klemmer and Twal are other considerations for keeper level forwards at a discount that we may want to consider.

Yeah, I haven't looked closely at any of those guys yet although certainly noted their scoring.

What kind of value to they represent currently? My quick estimate:

Klemmer perhaps a 55 point forward so therefore $100k value?
Twal 50? so $110k value? A little more uncertainty there though.
Cook 60? 65? so somewhere in the 15k to 65k value?

I guess if we are gonna be fair about it, surely Tolman has to be in the mix too. HIs new role makes him a 50 point guy IMO. so $110k value...

So these guys above compare to Ponga $100k undervalued, Chricton $150k (I'm quite bullish on him), and Bateman $85k.

Thats what I'd peg them all at on first looks. Gotta take immediate price rises, and positions into account too though huh.

If you had to make a target list, what would it be and in what order?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:OK guys, hopefully this makes sense. Here's how I project my cash situation. I list my players, then take a punt at what they will average. Project their price forward and sum the total.

Then I work out how much money I need to generate to get to a 'gun' team by subtracting my current cash position and current team projected value away from the cost of the 'gun' team (see below for how I define that).

That leaves a total amount that I will need to generate. As a general rule of thumb, IMO each CC should generate $150k on average and required 2 trades each. So in our case (post hypothetical trades), we need to generate ~$1.1m. ($1.1m / $150k) * 2 = 15 Trades.

Hopefully the pics below help put some numbers to the story. I've done a before and after based on bringing in Ponga and CHT for Macca and Burns (obviously that could change). Reason I did that though is to illustrate the value of making sure we have 'active cows'.

Oh and the other assumption I made in the analysis is that Burns and Brown are no longer making money as I feel, unless something changes, we will probably have to trade them out before they return from injury.

Hope this all makes sense.



EDIT: If you dont like any of the assumptions and want me to change things let me know, or if you want to see how things look based on any other trade combinations I can do that.

TLDR - IMO we need to generate cash ASAP, perhaps somewhere in the ball park of $1.4m (pre round 5 trades). I suspect the best way to do that will be double trading each week for the next few weeks at least, 1 up to a value gun (i.e. Ponga, Crichton etc) and 1 down to a new cow (CHT, Xeri, Okunbor etc). We have several players that we can make a good case to trade out in the coming weeks including but not limited to Lane, Macca, Burns, Brown, & Bird so I can see all  sorts of options that will get us moving in the right direction.

Spreadsheet Porn

Cap'n Ranta wrote:Thanks @Welshy and @Code Delta.

To be fair though there are many here who aren't "organisers" but are just as valuable in keeping the team/discussion going. This team will only ever be as good as all the help I get from people voting and proposing ideas. It's been fun so far though.

And yeah this team is beating my team overall. It's kinda fun to try and test my skills to beat the community team though

We appreciate your hard work CnR!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yeah, I haven't looked closely at any of those guys yet although certainly noted their scoring.

What kind of value to they represent currently? My quick estimate:

Klemmer perhaps a 55 point forward so therefore $100k value?
Twal 50? so $110k value? A little more uncertainty there though.
Cook 60? 65? so somewhere in the 15k to 65k value?

I guess if we are gonna be fair about it, surely Tolman has to be in the mix too. HIs new role makes him a 50 point guy IMO. so $110k value...

So these guys above compare to Ponga $100k undervalued, Chricton $150k (I'm quite bullish on him), and Bateman $85k.

Thats what I'd peg them all at on first looks. Gotta take immediate price rises, and positions into account too though huh.

If you had to make a target list, what would it be and in what order?

I think for the community team Ponga and Bateman are top priority, because we are much weaker at half and centre than other places, so as well as being under-priced they are a better upgrade on our current team.
Replacing Bird with Bateman improves our team much more than replacing Lane with Crichton.

For a team that just traded Tolman out, I can foresee trading him back in, then wanting to ditch him when he scores a couple of sub 50s in a row. Last week was a big outlier due to injuries. For exactly the same price I'd rather Twal.
Klemmer looks real solid though. If we can somehow grab Fifita/Taupau/Klemmer as 2 FRFs over the next month then I'd be happy sitting on them. Wouldn't be surprised to see those 3 as the top 3 FRFs by end of the year

The better buy than Twal is Aloiai, named starting lock this week, should get similar scores for $170k less, BE of 8 (vs 28 for Twal). Just brought him into my team this week.

AFB also an option, scoring well and plays round 12.

Bateman needs to be in the side by round 12, makes sense to get him this week.

I guess that partly depends on if you think Aloiai is going to be a long term option at lock. I don't think so.

BEs shouldn't dictate who you trade in. Because in 2/3 weeks time that BE is gone, but you still have the player in your team, so you have to make sure they are scoring at what you want them to.
My confidence in Aloiai retaining starting lock and/or getting the scores you want wouldn't justify the chance at getting $80k in price rises.

Some outstanding analysis on the last page or so of this thread - thanks Cap'n, Milchy and RnT.

I'd 100% vote for a strategy along the lines of what RnT and Milchy have developed. I think we should trade pretty hard with this team over the next few weeks to get it closer to a final team as early as possible.

In terms of guns preference, I agree with Bateman then Ponga. I'm not sold on Crichton myself, but happy to re-evaluate in a week or two. In terms of cash cows, I'd rank CHT and Xerri above Okie. And I think Xerri is a better pick-up than CHT ordinarily, but I think we'd be better off getting a back-up half than another centre (especially if we aren't getting Ponga this week).