NRLFF community managed fantasy team

Seeing as we're talking about Round 12, I'd be wary of loading up too much on Origin players, particulary forwards, given we already have Teddy, Arrow, Macca, Morgan, maybe Murray there. (Morgan and Macca at least are probably sells before Origin. It's a mark against Crichton who might be managed rnds 12-18, less so Ponga but it's worth thinking about because we could be losing a lot of points targetting a Crichton (or Klemmer) over a Surgess, Lolo (when back), Bateman or Kikau even if he is undervalued.

Someone else I'd mention as a trade-in/watching brief is DWZ who is more playable than Sivo/Rava in the third WFB spot, or also Wighton and Guth are DPP and Round 12 if we don't go the Ponga route.

Tldr, Bateman the priority, consider DWZ if that means missing Ponga this week.

Yeah man, I agree with the Origin/Round 12 stuff. I've been a bit concerned about my own team that all the 'value' guns Im bringing in / wanting to are Origin bound...Does make Bateman particularly appealing for this team.

Looping this week ended early.

We will not play Bird for 21. Will back Carty and CHT to better that. Starting lineup is now set.



Easy trades next week as far as I can see to bring in Ponga (to cover 3rd WFB) and Haas (he averages 68). After that I'll start looking more at the byes I promise.

The outs are a little more difficult but I'm already thinking Brown and Bird but will wait until the weekend is through to see what happens.

881 was a solid yet unspectacular result that I think we can be pretty happy with. 1,715th overall (267 points back), 2nd in the celeb league (100 points back) and 50th in the FOG (253 points back).




The choices

Fairly good week this time wit only 1 coin flip going against us.

- Being wary of Bird paid off this week as we avoided his score and played Carty and CHT to great effect.
- Captain Fifita was going really well until his untimely hammy injury.
- Ravalawa would have netted us 10 points over Sivo but thats always a tough call. Doubt many would have predicted an Eels shutout and a the Bulldogs going down by 36.

Where are we heading

26 trades to go with 290k ITB puts us in a good spot this week.

Only glaring weaknesses at this point are:

- A lack of Rd 12 players
- A shortage of cash (500k to 1m)
- 3rd WFB (Sivo/Rava)
- 2nd HLF(CHT/Carty) and
- 4th bench spot (Bird/Carty/CHT).  

I've done my own dream team/cash analysis and agree with RnT that we are about 1 million off the dream team based on start of season form. Trades for this team need to focus on

1) generating the last cash quickly
2) improving a positional weakness (i.e. points now)
3) Bringing in keepers (ignore byes/origin)
4) Improving Rd 12 (i.e. cash cows should preferably play rd 12 unless its a huge money maker)



Some Notes:

Semi Keepers discussion:

- Murray and Arrow are at the top of the 2RF scorers currently. We don't gain any massive benefit trading them (<2 points a round) so we should keep them. Personally I think Murray's true average is sub 50 when his attacking stats aren't as frequent but until rd12 he probably wont move the cash needle enough to consider trading. By then we will know if he is or isn't a keeper.

CNK and Morgan could be final 17 members if we are truly desperate (DCE/Munster/Cleary or RTS/Ponga adds 10-20 points a week). We need to sell these guys eventually but they aren't a priority and cover weaknesses in our squad currently.

Trade ins
This list would suggest Twal, RTS, Klemmer and Ponga are cheap now and should be our first targets as they have the most cash to make if they sustain their averages (or Ponga 50+ back at FB). However this doesn't take into account getting Cook/Farah as a captaincy option giving us extra points for captaincy.

Other Notes
DCE will come back to earth a bit. A more affordable Cleary/Munster combo saves 150k (a trade) and all should score similarly. Arey is also an option if we risk injury. Ditching one of the hookers would also save cash but would be quite a hit to our scores.


Final Thoughts:

Thanks to MTB we know Haas has a -15 BE and will plug a hole for our 4th reserve/short term Fifita cover. That's my obvious trade in this round. Xerri is the only other cash cow I'd look at but CTR isn't a spot we need help in nor is he a consistent bench option. He'd only be an option if we want Cook next week and sacrifice points in this one.

I'd say its a toss up between Cook (Low BE and great captaincy option), RTS (fix 3rd WFB and best scorer), Ponga (fix 3rd WFB this week and when Burns returns go to HLF) and Twal (most cash to make on keeper status) for the other.

The big problem is who do we get rid of to achieve this. Cook requires more cash than any combination of Burns, Bird and Brown can provide whereas the other all affect our team balance.

If it was my team as Bird lost cash this week and Brown is out indefinitely I'd get rid of them. Personally I feel we have committed to Burns for long enough that we hold him for his return in 2/3 weeks and play him at FB then. Ponga would cover WFB till then and afterwards move to the halves. If we get news that Fifita's injury is serious and could be out for multiple weeks I would likely do Fifita to Cook and Bird/Brown to Haas. But as always I'm interested in hearing others thoughts. What would you do with this team?

Think on your spreadsheet you need to ideally budget on 18th (frf/2rf) and 19th (wfb/hlf) men being at least semi-guns rather than 212k players

Good point but as to who that is I have no idea.

Take 1 million as funding the dream team with another 400-500k for an 18/19th man required. Either way we need a lot more cash. I guess I'm trying to point out that buying guns at their peak (Cook/DCE) isn't really feasible while we are looking at such a massive funding hole.

Also an 18th/19th man is ideal but the trades spent to get the cash for them couold often be better used just trading as injuries/suspensions strike so there needs to be a balance. The other option is getting on late season cash cows like Fonua and Martin of last year who started at 212k or close and became those midrange options.

Brown has to go for a cow. Is here a better cow gamble than Haas?
I'd try and save the other trade this week depending on injury news.
Some may want to get rid of Bird but he is only two tries away from good scores.

Haas is the most urgent trade in. Won't see a better cashie the rest of this season.

Twal is the next most urgent trade in, lowest BE and a keeper that can average 60 for $685k and doesn't play origin is a no brainer. The others like him are all $800k+. He is proving what we anticipated coming into the season, with such a high PPM, given minutes he has excelled.

For halves you are missing SJ, currently at a discount and also doesn't play origin.

mattnz wrote:Haas is the most urgent trade in. Won't see a better cashie the rest of this season.

Twal is the next most urgent trade in, lowest BE and a keeper that can average 60 for $685k and doesn't play origin is a no brainer. The others like him are all $800k+. He is proving what we anticipated coming into the season, with such a high PPM, given minutes he has excelled.

For halves you are missing SJ, currently at a discount and also doesn't play origin.

I agree on Haas. Will be like Kikau last season but practically guaranteed 200k in rises from here at a minimum in my eyes.

Twal is the best value pickup but on points this week its a clear loss Twal and Sivo vs Ponga and Burr

SJ still on a high BE so plenty of time to look. I certainly don't mind picking him up in a few weeks.

Yeah looks good guys - 100% Haas in (for Bird) and then my vote would be for a third WFB (even though I agree with Matt that Twal is a big target) I think its more urgent for us to fix that last WFB spot.

So at this stage I'd suggest:

Bird to Haas - leaves $470k
Then use that cash to go Brown to RTS leaves $67k

I agree with the above. The Rava/Sivo roulette ending is the best option for the team as a whole. Whether it's RTS or Ponga is the question for me. I wouldn't normally over-emphasise DPP but I think using it to split the two might tip the scales to Ponga for me. Is RTS a POD? (Haven't checked ownerships - just another potential factor to consider)

Great disection guys, I'd go Haas and RTS as the next priority.

Main forum also said Ryan Sutton could be worth a look and I tend to agree.

At 435k a FRF who is playing about 45-55 mins in the middle at lock for the raiders,

He is likely to get DPP after this week and job security is fairly good with Tapines 12 week injury. Also plays rd 12.

Base is about 42 points (30 tackles + 120 run m) and till his last game kept the negatives pretty low.

I see him making less points and $s than Haas so I don't think he's an include over him but tempted by him for sure.

He's bottomed out already after starting off the bench in limited minutes. I'm tempted to get him in over Ponga/RTS but our 3rd WFB is pretty dire. Probably has 130- 160k in him but the first 30 should go this week. I'll keep him shortlisted for this team next week. Likely should have had him in the trade poll but completely missed him myself.



Edit: He's basically Capewell 2.0 but not available at CTR....... He's now slightly less appealing but still good value

Im interested in Sutton, but I don't think he adds to our total points as much as dealing with the WFB spot. Watch list for sure and if he goes 45+ this week again then he is a serious option next week IMO.

Are we cracking 1000 this week?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Are we cracking 1000 this week?

It will be close with the team being at 893 points with Garner and Mahoney to come. Looking over the squad with have Sivo and Rava to play with and I think we really need a strong HLF/HOK to help our team.

CNK got injured yesterday. Played out the game but we need to monitor. If he is out short term we can probably cover with Rava/Sivo. Longer term we may need to take action.
Hopefully he misses no time and we can concentrate elsewhere.

Possible trade ins (in no particular order)

Sutton
Cleary
Xerri
Whitbread/Titans prop
Cook
RTS
Crichton

Round 6 - Updates

We didn't quite crack the ton and unfortunately thats all on us. Moved up to 1,014th overall, 40th in the FOG and down to 3rd in the Celebrity League.




Where do we stand

Captain was the right call but we would have got to the magical grail of 1000 points if we also played Carty over CHT or in some random parallel universe Sivo over Teddy............

Focusing on the celebrity league there is a 56 point difference between us (3rd) and 1st (Generation Jack) and this is only so close because GJ had Farah as a POD this whole time and the unfortunate injury score on the weekend brought him back to the pack. I've had a look at how our team stacks up and its probably got the best cash generation but the weakest starting 17.



Trades

150k in the bank. Max traded all the way so far. While I would love to trade Ravalawa to Sutton (peaked cow to mid range solid scoring cow that plays 12) this doesn't really improve our 17. Partly because our team has depth but this week especially as Ravalawa is our only cover for Nikoras one week suspension so there is also that spanner....

So with only 1 starting CTR this week we either

a) have Xerri (321k) as one of our trade ins or
b) keep Ravalawa (324k) as our 2nd CTR this week
c) Accept a 0 in our CTRs this week..........

The next issue we have is that our team (even including Rava) looks pretty solid. Trading off anyone this week would be at least 1 and if not a few weeks early from an ideal cash perspective.
If you like gambles a poor game from any of Garner, Morgan, Rein or Mahoney would limit their current price rises for quite a few weeks even if they are still 50k+ from their theoretical peak (TP) due to just how highly priced they are. Also note it takes forever to get the last 20-30 k out of a player if the are scoring consistently so without a monster game the max value is probably a bit lower than shown below.

Rava (324k)            BE: 20     Avg: 27           TP: 380k  (56k)
Sivo (394k)            BE:14       Avg: 32.7        TP: 461k  (67k)
Carty (437k)           BE:12      Avg: 36           TP: 508k  (71k)                 * Certainly his current average doesn't indicate his full potential
Morgan (581k)        BE: 34     Avg: 46.3        TP: 653k  (72k)
CNK (572k)            BE: 34      Avg: 46.2        TP: 651k  (79k)                 *could be a cut price WFB keeper with an above 45 average  
Mahoney (627k)      BE:26      Avg: 50.7        TP: 715k  (88k)
Rein (572k)            BE: 33     Avg: 47.5         TP: 670k  (98k)
Garner (568k)         BE: 31     Avg: 47.3        TP: 667k  (99k)
Burns (422k)          BE: 24      Avg: 37.3        TP: 525k  (103k)
Lawrie (520k)         BE:22      Avg: 44.5         TP: 627k  (107k)
Burr (514k)            BE:0         Avg: 45.7        TP: 644k (130k)
CHT (371k)            BE:0         Avg: 44           TP: 620k  (249k)
Haas (371k)           BE:-23      Avg: 62.5        TP: 881k (510k)


Using Milchys Trade in list

Sutton (471k)         BE:13         L3: 43.7
Cleary (693k)          BE:33        Avg: 50.7
Xerri (321k)            BE: -11      Avg: 39.7
Whitbread (283k)    BE:-4         Avg:37                     *could be another Titans prop. TLT dependent
Cook (905k)            BE: 58       Avg: 64.2
RTS (759k)             BE:36         Avg: 57.5
Crichton (649k)       BE: 42        L3: 50.3

Of these I see Cleary, Cook, RTS and Crichton being upgrades to our 17 whereas the others are cash/depth acquisitions that may or may not play on our bench on any given week. All likely have more value than some of our current crop but its not exactly obvious. The benefit to making decisions now is that we get ahead of the pack in terms of turning cows to guns but we do risk missing cash and trading the wrong players....

After writing all of this personally with 150k I'd go Morgan to Cleary (both likely play origin) and Rava to Xerri for a CTR but these trades don't make me feel great. Alternately Rava to Sutton and Burns to Xerri gets cash generation and coverage but I'll keep thinking and I'll likely go back to the drawing board. Can anyone see any great moves this week?

Does Rava to Xerri and Garner to Grand Angus work??
Don't think we can risk Rava as 2nd CTR