NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 10

No Worries wrote:


3hrs ago you're quoting Seibold from yesterday's artical putting your house on TPJ playing. Now he's a snowball chance in hell because of a throw a line Gillett said.

Who picks out your underwear of a morning ?

Your wife

No Worries wrote:

My problem with this kind of analysis is that the baseline is flawed.

He spends all year training and playing as SJ's puppet, so naturally when the puppet master is not there he's performing an un-natural new role. Now his role is completely different yet we want to judge him by the past.

You must be new here? We’ve been using nothing but flawed analysis to pick teams for months

Buramada wrote:

Mahoney will outscore at least one of Cook or Smith this year, but the problem is that everyone will have him so it will not make a difference

That’s an avatar bet waiting to happen.

Burr is a trap, if he's named he'll likely be getting 20 minutes or less. Gavet started plenty for the Warriors and has never really been Fantasy worthy.. I think there are better guys around who will make more money, might get $100k off him though.

Will Wighton do much kicking? If not, does Sezer come of value? I'd guess not, because he never has been relevant..

mattnz wrote:

Still only has 12% ownership, with most likely Smith named on the bench at TLT scaring some off. May peak at 15% ownership.

Yeah but most of the people that you are actually competing against for a good overall rank will be part of that 15%.

Krump wrote:
You must be new here? We’ve been using nothing but flawed analysis to pick teams for months

FU - go and b useful and put up your ladder predictions

I can't help but continue to feel underwhelmed by my team.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

What do you see in Gavet? He is in a stacked pack who will all share minutes. His game isn't that great either. Just my opinion though

I've just had another look at his stats last year and they're a lot worse than what I remember.
I must've been looking at the wrong numbers earlier on in the pre-season when considering him.

You're right, there's no way he's making it into my team. No way he averages over 30.

I think he'll continue to be a better player but that's not necessarily going to translate into a big jump in his fantasy scores.

I ideally want $100-200k cash. You may miss 5-10 points round 1, but gives you the flexibility to get the guys you really want in round 2, having seen the action of round 1. That could easily buy you 5-10 points per round for the next 10 rounds, much higher upside than the points potentially lost in round 1.

If i had that much cash up my sleeve id end up chasing round 1 points. How many times has a player pumped out a big round 1 score only to turn out to be the midranger we all knew he was.

Tim Glasby - thoughts? Does he start for the Knights and if so, how many minutes?

Based on last year, starting and getting 40+ minutes his average looks good however that only happened in five games and some of those were at lock.

I wouldnt be too worried how many kms SJ gets compared to Townsend, id be more worried to see if SJ brings his running game back.

Honey Badger wrote:

If i had that much cash up my sleeve id end up chasing round 1 points. How many times has a player pumped out a big round 1 score only to turn out to be the midranger we all knew he was.

Last season it gave you the cash to catch a guy you missed like kikau or corey thomson.

I can't help but come back to McLean or Lodge.

McLean 564K - Injured very early in the year, came back in the last 6 weeks of footy and averaged 47.3 in 48min/game. Looks as though his minutes increased over this 6 week period also. I think McLean will continue to get 45-50 minutes a game this year despite the pack, Scott getting on and can't produce for as long, other bench props coming through the ranks wont see much game time. BE of 39 there's not much value there but definitely an option for a sub 600K FRF.

Lodge 608K - The way i see it, Lodge slowly increased his minutes as he went along, came into the game with some time off so skills weren't there at the start of the year, middle of the year he was nursing a pimple bum which may have affected his mid year performance. Seems as though once he got his fitness up and overcame this bum problem his output was massive averaging 49.1 in 48.3mins/game post origin. I can see the props getting big minutes at Broncos, Ofa and Lodge have big motors and the bench props will either be sharing mins on the edge (Sua,Fifita) or will only see 30 odd mins a game (Haas, Flegler, Carrigan). BE of 42 so not massively underpriced but could be 7-8 maybe 9-10 points underpriced with some improvement. Another options if you want a nice POD other than LAM around 600K.

No Worries wrote:

FU - go and b useful and put up your ladder predictions

I did it days ago...
Memory slipping in your old age?

It's on - Krump v No Worries. It's just like a nostalgic walk down memory lane with Rabbit v KFP.

Go hard boys haha.

White Lightning wrote:It's on - Krump v No Worries. It's just like a nostalgic walk down memory lane with Rabbit v KFP.

Go hard boys haha.

That’s a bit rough on both of us. Not sure which one I’d want to be if given the choice.

Speaking of KFP, where is that cockhead ?

On the subject of cash in the bank provided you don’t think you are missing out on points I see no reason to keep a particular amount in hand. If you believe LAM can go to Fifita/Taupau tier why not bank the cash
Currently I’ve got roughly 140k and don’t see any upgrades in that range which will bank me significantly more points

No Worries wrote:

My problem with this kind of analysis is that the baseline is flawed.

He spends all year training and playing as SJ's puppet, so naturally when the puppet master is not there he's performing an un-natural new role. Now his role is completely different yet we want to judge him by the past.

Wait, SJ is the puppet master? So when he disappeared in all those key moments it was actualy just part of some master plan?! That devious genius!
I do agree to some extent, but I think the better argument would be to look at the kick metres of his halves pairing at the time. Its not like Green sees that SJ is out and still continues to play the exact same role beccause thats the way he has trained, got to give him more credit than that- he knew he was the man to step up and take ownership in the halves.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:On the subject of cash in the bank provided you don’t think you are missing out on points I see no reason to keep a particular amount in hand. If you believe LAM can go to Fifita/Taupau tier why not bank the cash
Currently I’ve got roughly 140k and don’t see any upgrades in that range which will bank me significantly more points

I dont really mind too much on cash ITB. If a cow goes big in RD 1 it wont cost too much to jump across and ride the wave for a few rounds. I am happy to waste 2 trades in Round 1 to trade my Middy who didnt fire to one who did then trade my Cow to one that fired and ride those waves for a few rounds.