NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15

lubedragon wrote:Deciding between running lane or radley in my second row whats is the preferred option round here?

Cheers..

Lane if you can afford him

my tv broke wrote:Can't wait for the next games to start so we can talk about some different players.

But before that happens, how much time should I spend rearranging my squad to fit Bird in?

what do guys think of going Garrick > Hetherington ? I'm getting worried of having zero FRF cover and just generally unsure about Garrick. Leaves me with a 130k cash stack opposed to 240k

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Dont think those numbers are correct. from what I can see Bird peaks at ~$520k if he averages 35 thats ~$230k in price rises total (or a touch under $200k if you trade him in this week).

38 would price him at $565k

Someone please correct me if I've got something wrong in my calculations.

An average of 32 from here would give you $150k by the time he peaks (taking into account the $36k price rise you'd miss out on from week 1).

That's right, but the last $10-20k are very slow in arriving, so you'd either
a) Hope for another 50+ score just before trading out to give his price a quick boost
b) Trade him out at around $500k (also dependant on when your trade-in target has bottomed in price)

Milchy wrote:

But before that happens, how much time should I spend rearranging my squad to fit Bird in?

Was it you who was thinking of panic buying him in during the pre game?

You know sometimes daylight savings comes in handy. First game on Friday is on at 5:00PM. EKO would just make it perfect.

Someone asked how Bird could get a bigger fantasy score than the more attacking Supercoach.

a) No try assist in supercoach, got one in fantasy. SC gave him their new 4 point "try contribution"
b) 6 TBs in fantasy, only 3 in SC. Fantasy also overvalues TBs in scoring.
c) Less tackles in SC too (SC is tougher across the board on the definition of a tackle. Smith, Gillett, McCullough all had much lower tackle counts in SC than fantasy)

Adrianoooo wrote:


Was it you who was thinking of panic buying him in during the pre game?

He was under consideration all pre-season. Don't think I specifically referenced him pre-game yesterday though.

Adrianoooo wrote:what do guys think of going Garrick > Hetherington ? I'm getting worried of having zero FRF cover and just generally unsure about Garrick. Leaves me with a 130k cash stack opposed to 240k

How long is Kikau out for? I forget but if it's for a while then sure go for Hetherington.

Adrianoooo wrote:what do guys think of going Garrick > Hetherington ? I'm getting worried of having zero FRF cover and just generally unsure about Garrick. Leaves me with a 130k cash stack opposed to 240k

Yeah i'm skeptical on garrick as well but i don't rate Hetheringtons security much either and he costs more.

Edit: FRF cover is bloody hard this year

StormTrooper96 wrote:

On this basis you have also already missed the first 36K or whatever it is rise, so you are banking that he averages around 38 from here on in to make another 150K on top

Already factored in his price rise this week to about 326k. To make 150k from there he needs 35s. Certainly possible and there's a decent chance I get him, but still seven games to go so I'm not going to drastically alter my team to free up funds.

Hope everyone in NZ is safe.

Fantasy seems pretty far down the priority list all of a sudden. :/

Milchy wrote:

Lane if you can afford him

I'm thinking Lane too.  I have 250K so could probably afford upgrading Radly to Lane with cash spare for next week.

filthridden wrote:Hope everyone in NZ is safe.

Fantasy seems pretty far down the priority list all of a sudden. :/

I just saw that... didn't want to believe it was true but looks like it is

filthridden wrote:Hope everyone in NZ is safe.

Fantasy seems pretty far down the priority list all of a sudden. :/

Bloody grim mate. Just hearing bits and pieces on the radio

Milchy wrote:

That's right, but the last $10-20k are very slow in arriving, so you'd either
a) Hope for another 50+ score just before trading out to give his price a quick boost
b) Trade him out at around $500k (also dependant on when your trade-in target has bottomed in price)

Yup 100% - I actually started to add something very similar to my post but scrapped it for fear of it getting a bit convoluted but you've articulated far better than I was going to. Its all well and good chucking an average score into the model for 8 weeks but the reality is bird aint gonna score 32 each week huh!

And then as you say there is the timing of the player you are trading too - its never easy.

I actually remember last year running my analysis (price projections) for timing the upgrade from Whitehead to Tolo weekly for about 4 weeks trying to figure out when it would be right. each week I had to re-run and re-evaluate when that trade was gonna happen, then one week Whitehead head sucked, Tolo went well and my hand was forced.

TLDR: No matter how much analysis and projections you do, its just a guide - things change weekly, but the guide is invaluable! Knowledge of the pricing side of this game is a huge part of doing well.

filthridden wrote:Hope everyone in NZ is safe.

Fantasy seems pretty far down the priority list all of a sudden. :/

Huh? Im in NZ, what happened?

EDIT: Oh shit! Mosque shooting. I think that might be a first over here!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Huh? Im in NZ, what happened?

Shooting inside a mosque in Christchurch. Around 6 people dead if reports are correct

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Huh? Im in NZ, what happened?

EDIT: Oh shit! Mosque shooting. I think that might be a first over here!

You're not in Christchurch I hope mate?

MilfordTheMagician wrote:

You're not in Christchurch I hope mate?

Nah man (thankfully), looks brutal. Potentially worse figures than initially reported from what I can see.