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    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15

    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:23 pm

    MilfordTheMagician wrote:

    It seemed like a cheap shot but if it wasn't then all good.

    I do go OTT sometimes but it doesn't mean I support the Broncs any less. I am too passionate I guess lol.

    Dw, us Warriors fans know the feeling Laughing the most loyal fans have to be Knights though
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:25 pm

    MilfordTheMagician wrote:

    It seemed like a cheap shot but if it wasn't then all good.

    I do go OTT sometimes but it doesn't mean I support the Broncs any less. I am too passionate I guess lol.

    Don't stop, you hear me?
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:28 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:My girlfriends team is pretty Poddy. I reckon she'll go alright for her second year stint.

    Koro
    Lodge Finger McLean
    Murray Matto Arrow(c)
    Milf Hughes
    Ramien Nikora
    Sivo CNK Burns

    Garner Mahoney Keighran Egan
    Turbo Excited DBrown Brailey Ravaman

    23K remaining

    I liker her Turbo pick, at 2.2% ownership and back next week he will be good. Mahoney seems to be near POD level at 10.7%.

    You know the rules, Stormy! Laughing
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:28 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:My girlfriends team is pretty Poddy. I reckon she'll go alright for her second year stint.

    Koro
    Lodge Finger McLean
    Murray Matto Arrow(c)
    Milf Hughes
    Ramien Nikora
    Sivo CNK Burns

    Garner Mahoney Keighran Egan
    Turbo Excited DBrown Brailey Ravaman

    23K remaining

    I liker her Turbo pick, at 2.2% ownership and back next week he will be good. Mahoney seems to be near POD level at 10.7%.

    You should know the unspoken rule by now... show us a picture of your GF!
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:30 pm

    Tigers have moved on from Musgrove regardless of court outcome. His contract was never registered by NRL.  Via DT
    lubedragon
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    Post by lubedragon Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:32 pm

    Deciding between running lane or radley in my second row whats is the preferred option round here?

    Cheers..
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:37 pm

    Looking through Batemans stats, regardless of how many games it is over, for 2018 season across the league he ranked:
    1st in Offloads (64, next closest 55)
    5th in Tackle Busts (the other 6 in the top 7 were all backs)
    2nd in hit ups
    7th in meters gained
    and had 618 tackles so depending on how many games there were was in the 20-30 tackles per game range.
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:39 pm

    KalkadoonWarrior wrote:

    How many of those 3839 errors were made by a centre getting paid $1million per season?
    It's not his fault they overpaid.
    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:42 pm

    MilfordTheMagician wrote:Last night was the best game Bird has played in Broncos colours. He didn't do a whole lot, but it's a slow process with him.

    If only you could see my jovial face and demeaner to assure you I have no malice. Let me paint a picture.

    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15 - Page 10 Giphy
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:44 pm

    Can't wait for the next games to start so we can talk about some different players.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:45 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    I think its worth it mate if you have a dud cow week 1 and you have the cash to upgrade without downgrading elsewhere.

    Hopefully my price predictor is working but heres how things could pan out:

    Bird scores 25 for 5 weeks, he makes another $60k (realistic floor IMO)
    30 for 5 weeks = $100k  (perhaps what we might expect from here)
    35 for 5 weeks = $135k (possible)
    30s + one more 50 = ~$140k (possible)
    35s + one more 50 = ~$170k (realistic upside)

    My scenarios I hope just demonstrate that the realistic floor is pretty low but realistic upside is substantial. But perhaps most importantly, what you'd expect to get, $100k, is pretty solid and I think most would take that given the little risk involved (if you concur with my predictions).

    I do agree with others here saying a little calm is in order - as per my earlier post, we are talking about 1 game here. That said, I do think this is a realistic option for people who have the cash in the bank AND have a failed week 1 cow. The whole point of the cows is to make money and Bird will make some money now. I'd rather guarantee myself a slice of that pie at the risk of getting stuck with this year's Lachlan Croker.

    Yeah for me it's borderline. 100k isn't worth a trade imo. 150k is and he may get it, but he might not too. I'm certainly not altering my team now to free up cash for a trade I'm not certain I want to make. Of course if you have Bird already, then happy days, but if you trade him in, he'll probably make decent cash but I wouldn't say must have at this stage.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:45 pm

    mattnz wrote:Looking through Batemans stats, regardless of how many games it is over, for 2018 season across the league he ranked:
    1st in Offloads (64, next closest 55)
    5th in Tackle Busts (the other 6 in the top 7 were all backs)
    2nd in hit ups
    7th in meters gained
    and had 618 tackles so depending on how many games there were was in the 20-30 tackles per game range.

    Big difference between 69 and 49 though (or whatever the range of numbers that have been posted on him).

    For me, at his price, he is a wait and see. It should become much clearer what kind of a role he'll play in the NRL after round 1. At worst its a trade and a little bit of $. But Im not sure he's going to be the guy on everyones radar like someone else posted - especially with all the value that exists at C already. If everything pans out roughly in line with projections he'd have to really gun it be a must have cause I think Capewell, Holland, Nikora and Bird are gonna be all good money making Cs and likely Capewell and Holland will be well good enough to fill the two C spots until potentially upgrading to guns later.

    That said, if you've nailed it with Bateman you've potentially got 1 of the C spots locked down for the season which would be huge. Too many unknowns for me though at this stage.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:45 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    You should know the unspoken rule by now... show us a picture of your GF!

    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15 - Page 10 D491c010

    This is a picture with her dad

    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:47 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Can't wait for the next games to start so we can talk about some different players.

    haha - yes! I can only procrastinate for so long at work talking Bird & Gillett without starting to feel bad Smile
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:47 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    Yeah for me it's borderline. 100k isn't worth a trade imo. 150k is and he may get it, but he might not too. I'm certainly not altering my team now to free up cash for a trade I'm not certain I want to make. Of course if you have Bird already, then happy days, but if you trade him in, he'll probably make decent cash but I wouldn't say must have at this stage.

    On this basis you have also already missed the first 36K or whatever it is rise, so you are banking that he averages around 38 from here on in to make another 150K on top
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:51 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    Yeah for me it's borderline. 100k isn't worth a trade imo. 150k is and he may get it, but he might not too. I'm certainly not altering my team now to free up cash for a trade I'm not certain I want to make. Of course if you have Bird already, then happy days, but if you trade him in, he'll probably make decent cash but I wouldn't say must have at this stage.

    Yeah it's a tough one. The value of a trade is in part dependent on how much money your initial team will be valued at once they peak. I haven't worked that out yet, so not sure if $100k is worth it or not. But I do think $100k is a touch conservative for bird (despite how I wrote up my post). My hunch is that its worth bringing him in (all else equal) if its an upgrade using CITB.

    Johnny B Goode
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    Post by Johnny B Goode Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:53 pm

    Is Kahu a trap?

    At least with Bird there's a history of decent form. Has Kahu ever been fantasy relevant? I mean for the price all you'd really expect is 30's scores but Burns could have more upside.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:54 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    On this basis you have also already missed the first 36K or whatever it is rise, so you are banking that he averages around 38 from here on in to make another 150K on top

    Dont think those numbers are correct. from what I can see Bird peaks at ~$520k if he averages 35 thats ~$230k in price rises total (or a touch under $200k if you trade him in this week).

    38 would price him at $565k

    Someone please correct me if I've got something wrong in my calculations.

    An average of 32 from here would give you $150k by the time he peaks (taking into account the $36k price rise you'd miss out on from week 1).


    Last edited by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:56 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Its funny, there was 3839 errors recorded across 192 games last season, at just under 20 errors per game, but Bird drops one ball, and the world is caving in for Broncos fans.

    It was a bit of a hospital pass too, so i blame the person who threw it!
    MilfordTheMagician
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    Post by MilfordTheMagician Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:01 pm

    Fortitude wrote:

    If only you could see my jovial face and demeaner to assure you I have no malice. Let me paint a picture.

    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15 - Page 10 Giphy

    lol!

    All good mate.

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