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    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 18

    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:49 am

    Fraser wrote:Some of the trades people are suggesting are hurting my head. People wanting to trade out keepers after 1 round is just crazy imo!
    Shhhh in poker we say “don’t tap the tank” as the tank is full of fish*

    This line of feedback is too common. Shelve your own insecurities and FOMO, we have real money bets on this!! Less owners of Arrow or Tedesco the better


    *terrible poker player
    Cap'n Ranta
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    Post by Cap'n Ranta Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:51 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    My gut is leaning towards selling Arrow but not because I think he'll do badly at all, it's just the only way I can get Bateman in and Twal out. My plan:

    Twal OUT, he's a plodder and I should never have started with him. Also doesn't play R12.

    Surgess IN, he's got a good draw, scored well even in the rain with an HIA, the Rabbits seem to be going to the right a lot with ARey feeding him short balls and plays R12.

    Arrow OUT, while I do think he'll score well, Bateman is too important to leave out and I have no other way. also he plays Origin and will likely get fewer minutes than normal as the Titans want to manage his workload over the season.

    Bateman IN, he looks absolutely amazing, can be moved to CTR once my cows peak and I can get more backrow guns in, plus plays R12. Also I highly doubt he'll get any cheaper than he is now, while I reckon Arrow will drop back down at some point for me to get back in if I've got a spare trade and spare 2RF spot for him.

    These trades are with a view to keeping both Bateman and Surgess in my side all year and improve my scoring early as well (since I reckon Surgess + Bateman outscores Arrow + Twal by a lot)

    Is it really that bad to sell Arrow then?

    I don't think your reasoning is wrong just maybe the order could be optimised.

    Is Twal (546k) to Bateman (616k) possible? That is where the big upgrade of this move is for me. No arguments do it.

    Arrow (744k) to Surgess (679k) feels less clear cut. In fact depending on your team makeup (if you need FRF cover) I think its sideways. Yes Surgess had a HIA affected game but it was with a try. Another week or 2 to really look at that trade may help see if that's going to be an upgrade or just plain sideways. I see both in the 50-55 point a game mold. Doing it now or later doesn't really swing the cash or points too far IMO.

    Feel free to post your bank and team and we can look at other options if you are short on cash for Twal to Bateman. Overall I like the end outcome but when I say Arrow to Surgess I'm thinking sideways.

    Feel free to post your team and we can see what other options you might have?
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:54 am

    Cap'n Ranta wrote:

    I don't think your reasoning is wrong just maybe the order could be optimised.

    Is Twal (546k) to Bateman (616k) possible? That is where the big upgrade of this move is for me. No arguments do it.

    Arrow (744k) to Surgess (679k) feels less clear cut. In fact depending on your team makeup (if you need FRF cover) I think its sideways. Yes Surgess had a HIA affected game but it was with a try. Another week or 2 to really look at that trade may help see if that's going to be an upgrade or just plain sideways. I see both in the 50-55 point a game mold. Doing it now or later doesn't really swing the cash or points too far IMO.

    Feel free to post your bank and team and we can look at other options if you are short on cash for Twal to Bateman. Overall I like the end outcome but when I say Arrow to Surgess I'm thinking sideways.

    Feel free to post your team and we can see what other options you might have?

    Team:

    Cook
    Fifita, Twal
    Arrow, Murray, Lane
    Morgan, Munster
    Nikora, Capewell
    CNK, Dedwards, Burns

    Mahoney, Garner, Keighran, DBrown

    Tatola, Garrick, Sivo, Ravalawa.


    I have 37k bank and can't afford the direct trade, otherwise I'd do it instead of selling Arrow. Got any better ideas? The Arrow trade also gives me two more R12 players who I'd plan on keeping for the whole year anyway so I see it as trades well spent.


    Last edited by Bethany_B on Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:57 am; edited 1 time in total
    Vanish
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    Post by Vanish Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:54 am

    Remember friends, every sideways trade made now is one less available trade for the Origin period.
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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:57 am

    Maybe next year I'll remind myself to have some money in the bank. 62k short of a Twal and Bateman swap. So leaves me looking at both twal and Holland out for Lawrie/Host and Bateman. Everyone else in my squad I'm rather contempt with. Arrow will be monitored but not looking at moving him out at the moment
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:03 am

    So pleased I already have Bateman, fun watching everyone else pulling their team apart to get him in Smile
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:03 am

    mattnz wrote:So pleased I already have Bateman, fun watching everyone else pulling their team apart to get him in Smile

    Haha lucky. In my case it was Bateman vs Lane and I picked Lane.
    Cap'n Ranta
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    Post by Cap'n Ranta Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:06 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Team:

    Cook
    Fifita, Twal
    Arrow, Murray, Lane
    Morgan, Munster
    Nikora, Capewell
    CNK, Dedwards, Burns

    Mahoney, Garner, Keighran, DBrown

    Tatola, Garrick, Sivo, Ravalawa.


    I have 37k bank and can't afford the direct trade, otherwise I'd do it instead of selling Arrow. Got any better ideas?

    Yeah figured bank must have been the main issue.

    Tatola is really the only other downgrade option but if we cash him in to a non FRF that leaves you without a FRF. Makes the only option I see:

    Tatola to Host/Sele
    Twal to Bateman

    I mean you could do Edwards as well but that feels awful and you'd be playing super WFB roulette every week so I think its a poor tradeoff.

    I think either way is an improvement but your way is 2 trades if you like Tatola and mine is 3 (Arrow to Surgess anytime after this week). I'd probably go with downgrading Tatola as I don't believe in him and would hope Arrow has a higher ceiling than Burgess but he's in your team for a reason so I don't hate the Arrow trade if that's the way you choose to go. All of your points were pretty sound re: byes and a similar level of scoring between the two.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:06 am

    WT2K wrote:Maybe next year I'll remind myself to have some money in the bank. 62k short of a Twal and Bateman swap. So leaves me looking at both twal and Holland out for Lawrie/Host and Bateman. Everyone else in my squad I'm rather contempt with. Arrow will be monitored but not looking at moving him out at the moment
    #
    Twal had the minutes, just didn't get the extras. hold for me mate
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:12 am

    Welshy wrote:
    #
    Twal had the minutes, just didn't get the extras. hold for me mate

    Agree, the concern for him was minutes, which he got. The outlier was his PPM, which didn't match previous seasons.
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:12 am

    Bethany_B wrote:
    SI wrote:
    Quite a few are shooting through on Jarrow mate. Most of them wouldn’t if it wasn’t for the massive lure of Bateman I’m sure. Crazy times, but I get where they are coming from. I’ll hold Jarrow for his inevitable two or three 70 plus scores.

    My gut is leaning towards selling Arrow but not because I think he'll do badly at all, it's just the only way I can get Bateman in and Twal out. My plan:

    Twal OUT, he's a plodder and I should never have started with him. Also doesn't play R12.

    Surgess IN, he's got a good draw, scored well even in the rain with an HIA, the Rabbits seem to be going to the right a lot with ARey feeding him short balls and plays R12.

    Arrow OUT, while I do think he'll score well, Bateman is too important to leave out and I have no other way. also he plays Origin and will likely get fewer minutes than normal as the Titans want to manage his workload over the season.

    Bateman IN, he looks absolutely amazing, can be moved to CTR once my cows peak and I can get more backrow guns in, plus plays R12. Also I highly doubt he'll get any cheaper than he is now, while I reckon Arrow will drop back down at some point for me to get back in if I've got a spare trade and spare 2RF spot for him.

    These trades are with a view to keeping both Bateman and Surgess in my side all year and improve my scoring early as well (since I reckon Surgess + Bateman outscores Arrow + Twal by a lot)

    Is it really that bad to sell Arrow then?
    Nope, not at all.

    Like I said, the vast majority of Jarrow trades are for Jateman. Can’t begrudge that. I may get him in this week as well; I’m just lucky I don’t have to trade an Arrow or Holland to do it.
    Cap'n Ranta
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    Post by Cap'n Ranta Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:13 am

    WT2K wrote:Maybe next year I'll remind myself to have some money in the bank. 62k short of a Twal and Bateman swap. So leaves me looking at both twal and Holland out for Lawrie/Host and Bateman. Everyone else in my squad I'm rather contempt with. Arrow will be monitored but not looking at moving him out at the moment

    A wild grammar nazi appears cause I'm sure you didn't mean that and you don't want to risk your squad being sad and hurt when their coach speaks about them that way. I mean we are all real coaches right?

    Contempt - the feeling that a person or a thing is worthless or beneath consideration
    Content - a state of peaceful happiness

    But yeah I like the look of those trades.

    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:14 am

    I am still not convinced by Jacob Host. Obviously for his price he is fine, but choosing between him and Lawrie he seems a very dubious pick.

    Host played 11 games in 2017 and 8 games in 2016, does anybody have access to these stats, because his 5 or so games last year were truly terrible, something like 0.4 PPM. I half expect the starting spot pumped him up and he is about to regress to a mean. A very mean mean.

    Lawrie is an absolute beast on the otherhand and KSims is not exactly a worldbeater lock to take his spot for certainty. If Lawrie kills it and the Dragons get a win, we might see KSims join the bench and then Lawrie suddenly looks like an amazing pick. Worst case scenerio, 40 mins from the bench still makes plenty of cash.
    t43597
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    Post by t43597 Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:34 am

    My centres, Ramien and Holland, were horrible last round but I honestly think both will improve massively this week. How important is it to get bateman is my question? Mansour and kahu were equally terrible last round so it's fair to say I have a few issues but I'm really uncertain about which trades will benefit my team the most. I don't have lawrie so I may look to grab him and then have a hard think about trading one of my other duds
    t43597
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    Post by t43597 Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:48 am

    Napa > Lawrie locked in. Then I think ill keep Holland but have benched him in favour of nikora. Ramien better perform this round as he is on notice. I'm determined to keep Mansour too
    Buramada
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    Post by Buramada Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:24 am

    Vanish wrote:Remember friends, every sideways trade made now is one less available trade for the Origin period.

    In effect, my sideways trades are this

    # Radley (494k) to (B)mith (366k) - My rationale for this is that (B)mith will score pretty much the same as Radley for 128k less and be a bit POD about it, with the potential to go large if (C)mith plays origin or is injured or whatever. Radley could step up, but could just as likely not but the difference is the cash now

    # Watson (571k) to Bateman (616k) - Even if Watson jags last years average of 40 points this week, will still lose 15k. Another week like last week could be more like 40k down the drain. I get the impression that Ponga and Pearce will control too much of the game for Watson to score as he should. That is my assessment in hindsight.

    Out of context both of these could be considered sideways. What's the verdict? Is Bateman really worth it?
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:35 am

    Does bringing Bateman work into your long term plan or is it just short sighted FOMO? I would get Bateman in if there was a clear trade, but there isn't. Trading Arrow to Bateman is like Taupau to Fifita. There's every chance they average the same but now you've wasted a trade and haven't improved your team or it's cash generation. If you could go Holland to Bateman, I'd probably say that's a master-stroke lol

    Anyway, any players other than Bateman we can talk about? Any rumours (relating to the game)?
    ForanAgainst
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    Post by ForanAgainst Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:17 am

    King Assassin wrote:anyone think holding kahu and chucking him in the reserves for ravalawa is a good idea?

    I was thinking of making him captain this week because he wants to ‘stick it to his old club’. It’s almost in the same category as ‘training the house down’, right? lol!
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:23 am

    ForanAgainst wrote:

    I was thinking of making him captain this week because he wants to ‘stick it to his old club’. It’s almost in the same category as ‘training the house down’, right? lol!
    Kahu is still my favourite 18-21 outside back DPP.

    He’s cheap enough to justify picking ahead of likes of Rava, Garrick and co. His job security is indisuputable against that lot. Burns will end up backup but until we build bank he is a starter
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:29 am

    Buramada wrote:

    In effect, my sideways trades are this

    # Radley (494k) to (B)mith (366k) - My rationale for this is that (B)mith will score pretty much the same as Radley for 128k less and be a bit POD about it, with the potential to go large if (C)mith plays origin or is injured or whatever. Radley could step up, but could just as likely not but the difference is the cash now  

    # Watson (571k) to Bateman (616k) - Even if Watson jags last years average of 40 points this week, will still lose 15k. Another week like last week could be more like 40k down the drain. I get the impression that Ponga and Pearce will control too much of the game for Watson to score as he should. That is my assessment in hindsight.

    Out of context both of these could be considered sideways. What's the verdict? Is Bateman really worth it?

    If you expect BSmith and Radley to earn the same, then that is probably on the edge of an OK trade (you wouldn't the gap between them to be much closer though, ideally it would be $150k or more)

    What do you expect the difference in Watson and Bateman's average to be? If you think the gap is big enough then nothing wrong with the trade. Certainly its better than Arrow-Bateman. This assume you have adequate WFB cover for losing Watson

    I think if Bateman is going to average 50+ (Hard to say for sure off just 1 game, but certainly looks possible) then it is worth trading a little sideways to get him in.
    I think dumping someone like Arrow probably not worth it, but if you can get him through guys like Radley/Twal then go for it,

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