NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 18

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

As an example, got checkout the timeline for Napa's scoring last week. I believe he was on about 20 with less than 20 minutes played - we all know how that ended up.....

Following the live scoring, Napa was on 20 after 20 minutes and 18 after 23 minutes, or something like that.

@Milchy - Do you have thoughts on Mikaele mate?

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Where do you get the "Most Likely" from? Parra's feeder team played a 5/8 at hooker last week. I am of the believe they signed McIllwrick for the sole purpose of depth in the team (ie. plays for wentworthville until/if injury occurs)

Him and Mahoney are the only hookers in the Parra squad, BA always wants to play a 2nd hooker but the past 18 months only ever had one and a make shift utility available.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they asked the NRL permission to add him to the team list this weekend.

Can someone fill me in on Waddell? I know nothing about him

Also, i'm of the opinion that once the season is running it's easier/less risky to be on the second wave for a player. ie bring in a player after 1 good round if their change in role or form or circumstances means it will continue, rather than gambling on cows who come from nowhere and haven't played yet.

Martin last year for example. Moderate risk for his debut but very low after such a good real life and fantasy performance.

How do you guys evaluate cows and when to get on them?

White Lightning wrote:Would you upgrade Mahoney to Friend. With Salmon on the bench he will spell Mahoney & to hit 40's Mahoney has to play 80 mins. I did start with Mahoney hoping for 80 mins but it looks like this won't happen for a while & Mahoney did look like he was struggling in the 2nd half & needed a rest so he doesn't look ready for 80 mins just yet. Without the try he would of scored mid 30's & Friend will knock out at least 60's plus Friend is up against Manly so some attacking stats are a very good possibility for Friend. The trades I'm weighing up are:
Ofa out - Lawrie in
Mahoney out - Friend in

Thoughts & thanks.

The Ofa-Lawrie trade looks solid, and I agree that Mahoney needs to go sooner rather than later.

The remaining question is what do your hooker stocks look like? From memory you're running Cook, so it isn't vital to bring in another HOK. What about waiting for Angus to bottom out, and holding the Mahoney trade for a week or two?

Unless you see Friend being a season-long 60 scorer, in which case he isn't getting any cheaper....

This is not directed at anyone in particular because I see it all the time....... but:

Weary: feeling or showing extreme tiredness, especially as a result of excessive exertion.
Wary: feeling or showing caution about possible dangers or problems.

I'm rather weary from too much fantasy related screen work, but wary that all the information I absorb might not be correct.

mattnz wrote:

Friend is normally just a tackle bot, not known for attacking play. Doubt he gets a chance to have 65 tackles again this week.

He does have an attacking game but doesn't often need to use it. I know he's worked on his short kicking game too. I'm not expecting him to keep the attack, but he did expose some lacklustre defence last week. I'm expecting him to expose some of the same this round, but not score 90s. Definitely chasing points if you bring him in now

Rippin and Tearin wrote:@Milchy - Do you have thoughts on Mikaele mate?

Also be interested in this.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Can someone fill me in on Waddell? I know nothing about him

Also, i'm of the opinion that once the season is running it's easier/less risky to be on the second wave for a player. ie bring in a player after 1 good round if their change in role or form or circumstances means it will continue, rather than gambling on cows who come from nowhere and haven't played yet.

Martin last year for example. Moderate risk for his debut but very low after such a good real life and fantasy performance.

How do you guys evaluate cows and when to get on them?

Pretty sure someone was saying that Waddell was the guy unlucky enough to be injured when in line for a starting spot at Panthers, instead CHN got the lucky break and the rest is history. He averaged 49 points in ISP last season in 8 games. Would need to be getting minutes. At Manly minutes for bench forwards are hard to come by.

I don't mind seeing a cow play once to see how they go and pay slightly more to get them week 2 after they have put in a good performance, better to catch a moving train than hope one pulls out of the station and have to trade him out again.

ISP stats are a great place to see who is a great option to bring in as well. They arent always available, but can help you find the good ones and miss the bad ones. Really helped when evaluating guys like Nikora vs Garrick and a guy like Flegler that wasnt getting minutes even in ISP. Helps you avoid the traps.

https://www.nswrl.com.au/players/?competition=113
https://www.qrl.com.au/players/

I feel like im the only one who is still happy to hold offa.

Should get some more minutes? Poor game last week. Probably he worst he could possible score?

lukeaye wrote:I feel like im the only one who is still happy to hold offa.

Should get some more minutes? Poor game last week. Probably he worst he could possible score?

Well your not the only one, he was on my chopping block for getting lower than expected minutes but with Lodge suspended he gets another week. Low minutes and he is gone next week

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Can someone fill me in on Waddell? I know nothing about him

Also, i'm of the opinion that once the season is running it's easier/less risky to be on the second wave for a player. ie bring in a player after 1 good round if their change in role or form or circumstances means it will continue, rather than gambling on cows who come from nowhere and haven't played yet.

Martin last year for example. Moderate risk for his debut but very low after such a good real life and fantasy performance.

How do you guys evaluate cows and when to get on them?

I agree with this, but dont think it's how you put yourself into a position to win the comp.

2 examples I can think of last year where getting on early was a massive bonus.

Martin is one of those - scored 63 (in his first game) and I suspect jumped in price by ~$60k

The other, and perhaps the more telling one was Rein who scored 70 (when he first got the starting hooker job) and probably rose by $50k or so, but them more importantly only started at hooker for 3 more games which meant a number of people didnt jump on because they thought his lifespan was too short.

I've said it a few times before, but IMO its a tolerance for risk thing - If you are going for gold you have to make the bold calls and be prepared to be wrong!

lukeaye wrote:I feel like im the only one who is still happy to hold offa.

Should get some more minutes? Poor game last week. Probably he worst he could possible score?

In my pre-season analysis of Ofa I pegged him as a good value buy (point estimate of 7 points value) but that was based on him starting lock and playing more like ave 55 minutes something along the lines of what he did at the back end of last season. Ibailed on him when Gillett got named at lock. Game one of this year suggests he might see a small bump in his minutes but not as much as he needs to be enough value given what else is going around. I think he scored on the low end of his range for those kind of minutes in game 1, but still think he is a worthy candidate for the chopping block when you have guys out there which are 10 point + value players.

I have no strong opinion on Mikaele

He looked alright on the weekend, pretty much all base stats. but in general I don't trust bench props. I would think Eisenhuth would have to be around close to selection at some point.
i think on the weekend he benefited in getting his playing time at the right points in the game to generate stats quickly, not a lot of stoppages so plenty of time for tackles and hitups, so I wouldn't expect his scoring rate to continue like he started.

If I had him I certainly wouldn't be selling, but think there are probably better trade in options.
Don't see him starting anytime soon so mid 30s is probably his peak (unless he can jag a try or something)

Another guy I thought might get more attention but with a BE of 43 I guess I can see why people are holding for a week is David Fifita.

The kid has a career PPM of nearly 0.9 (last year was (0.82). Last year he started just the three times and played 45, 44, and 80 minutes. Su'a got 56 minutes starting on the edge that Fifita will now play on.

So, for arguments sake lets say Fifita plays 55 min, at last years ppm of 0.82, thats a 45 point average for a guy that's priced at ~36.

Roughly 10 point value, so seems solid. What am I missing?

bluetige wrote:

Well your not the only one, he was on my chopping block for getting lower than expected minutes but with Lodge suspended he gets another week. Low minutes and he is gone next week

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

In my pre-season analysis of Ofa I pegged him as a good value buy (point estimate of 7 points value) but that was based on him starting lock and playing more like ave 55 minutes something along the lines of what he did at the back end of last season. Ibailed on him when Gillett got named at lock. Game one of this year suggests he might see a small bump in his minutes but not as much as he needs to be enough value given what else is going around. I think he scored on the low end  of his range for those kind of minutes in game 1, but still think he is a worthy candidate for the chopping block when you have guys out there which are 10 point + value players.

Fair enough.

Thanks for your responses.

Milchy wrote:
I have no strong opinion on Mikaele

He looked alright on the weekend, pretty much all base stats. but in general I don't trust bench props. I would think Eisenhuth would have to be around close to selection at some point.
i think on the weekend he benefited in getting his playing time at the right points in the game to generate stats quickly, not a lot of stoppages so plenty of time for tackles and hitups, so I wouldn't expect his scoring rate to continue like he started.

If I had him I certainly wouldn't be selling, but think there are probably better trade in options.
Don't see him starting anytime soon so mid 30s is probably his peak (unless he can jag a try or something)

Cheers mate. My gut says you are probably right. Who do you see as better trade ins though at < Lawrie price (I have Host/the 2 halves, and Ravalawa)

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Another guy I thought might get more attention but with a BE of 43 I guess I can see why people are holding for a week is David Fifita.

The kid has a career PPM of nearly 0.9 (last year was (0.82). Last year he started just the three times and played 45, 44, and 80 minutes. Su'a got 56 minutes starting on the edge that Fifita will now play on.

So, for arguments sake lets say Fifita plays 55 min, at last years ppm of 0.82, thats a 45 point average for a guy that's priced at ~36.

Roughly 10 point value, so seems solid. What am I missing?

Lots of people were super keen on him in pre-season, if he got a starting spot.

I guess now its a bit of an awkward price/time to bring him in at (does he keep the start when at full strength)

But if you don't want Bateman, Holland to Fifita could be a goer.

After letting my initial trade rage settle I have decided to go with the following trades:
Holland to
Glasby to Lawrie (Lawrie to have more upside $$$ wise)

Edwards to stay in the team, he better get some attacking stats this week.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Cheers mate. My gut says you are probably right. Who do you see as better trade ins though at < Lawrie price (I have Host/the 2 halves, and Ravalawa)

I guess if you want a downgrade its Burr or Sele as the other main options (job security possibly an issue)
Or take a punt on Sivo.

So Mikaele might not do so bad compared to those 2 if you need to get funds from somewhere