NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 18

Milchy wrote:

I guess if you want a downgrade its Burr or Sele  as the other main options (job security possibly an issue)
Or take a punt on Sivo.

So Mikaele might not do so bad compared to those 2 if you need to get funds from somewhere

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Another guy I thought might get more attention but with a BE of 43 I guess I can see why people are holding for a week is David Fifita.

The kid has a career PPM of nearly 0.9 (last year was (0.82). Last year he started just the three times and played 45, 44, and 80 minutes. Su'a got 56 minutes starting on the edge that Fifita will now play on.

So, for arguments sake lets say Fifita plays 55 min, at last years ppm of 0.82, thats a 45 point average for a guy that's priced at ~36.

Roughly 10 point value, so seems solid. What am I missing?

mattnz wrote:

After a minimal role last week, if Fifita gets 45 this week, he hasnt really moved for cost. It is all about opportunity cost, only 2 trades available, Lawrie likely scores similarly for $314k and has a BE of -2. Bateman and Gillett are both options at a similar cost that have already got their BE down too and should at least score as well. Host is another option similar to Lawrie, may score a bit less but much lower cost.

VERTiiGO wrote:

Thats 1 more than the average tooth count for you guys.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I've seen this posted quite a bit - the point per minute thing for Sele. The trouble is he only played 17 minutes. I have no stats for this but Im almost certain for forwards that they get disproportionately high PPM at the beginning of their stints and then things taper out. To project Seles scoring based on the first 17 minutes of his game is problematic IMO.

As an example, got checkout the timeline for Napa's scoring last week. I believe he was on about 20 with less than 20 minutes played - we all know how that ended up.....

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yeah mate, 100% agree. I guess we tend to be week-to-week here. But there are several guys emerging as great value plays in the coming weeks. For example if David Fifita was being talked up big time pre-season, all else equal he's even better value now (although he does cost a trade). Teddy, Taupau, Crichton are also very much on my watch list after their week 1s. Reminds me of Tolo last year who dropped ~$100k early.

churg wrote:Holland to Lawrie and Garrick to Host good trades. Means Bird and Nikora starting centres. Thoughts. Cheers.

churg wrote:Holland to Lawrie and Garrick to Host good trades. Means Bird and Nikora starting centres. Thoughts. Cheers.

churg wrote:Sele to Host a viable trade, both have poor job security. Who makes more cash.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Don't think Host makes enough to justify a trade

Mulvy wrote:

39 for three weeks makes 150k

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:If Holland goes, Bateman is the only replacement I'd be comfortable with.

Rabbit wrote:

Well, that silly myth was put to be when it was proven this week that Broncos fans have the worst teeth in the Australia. It was all over the news. Facts