NRL Fantasy 2019 part 73

sajjos wrote:Any thoughts on DFifita. He has got 50 as 5 game avg. Does he keep the 2RF spot or is someone missing?

Flegler missing this week as well as Shibisaki. You’d be rolling the dice.

mickspicks wrote:

Flegler missing this week as well as Shibisaki. You’d be rolling the dice.

don't think Flegler is an issue for Fifita, he's a middle forward, but yeh, Shibisaki is on the recovery trial.

That said though, Shiba has hardly grabbed his opportunity with both hands, the current setup on that edge worked well last week and Seibs seems to be rewarding good form, so there's every chance if it continues to hold up it'll stay that way, but with all the variables i think it's a bit too risky at this point, i'd want Shiba to be a healthy scratch before i considered it.

Hi team.

Thank you for the amazing insights, research and passion.

Just a word of caution for any of the people down to 2 trades, last week I was doing the usual experimental trades which you reverse 100 times before the weekend and as I was down to 2 trades used my last 2 as a double trade. The app would not allow me to reverse that double trade and was locked in (think I may have selected 2 players at once to boost my bank and then selected 2 trade ins as the one confirmed trade and this was the cause) just thought I would share that because it may help someone avoid completely prematurely fucking their team.

Can ultimately only blame myself for being down to 2 trades with 8 weeks to go but still...

I meant to add the first game had been played so could not rollback my team as captain was locked in.

Revraiser wrote:How can u get relegated if ur atop?

On a side note, what are we going to do when the female refs start penalise the players for things that happened 2 months ago ??

Ben Marlin wrote:I promised that I will do an in-depth post explaining why Cook is the best captaincy option, here it is. I will go through the other captaincy options later (Smith, McInnes, Haas, Taumalolo)

Cook is up against Dragons this week.
In 2019, starting hookers PPM against the dragons is 0.719
The same hooker’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.697
That means that starting hookers PPM increases by 3.44% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 3.44% then it would become 0.82, giving him a score of 67 over 80. minutes

The last 5 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.854
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.672
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 28% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 28% then it would become 1.02, giving him a score of 82 over 80 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.957
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.677
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 43.08% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 43.08% then it would become 1.14, giving him a score of 91 across 80 minutes

If I weight the games so that the more recent a game the high the weight and the earlier the game the less the weight (there are too many numbers to fully explain, if you want to know how I did it than I can tell you later) hookers PPM increases by 4.33% when playing against the dragons

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the dragons compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the dragons was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the dragons was lower than their season average

The equation of this graph is y = 1.3241x - 10.833
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 23.8338 - 10.833
That means y = 13.0008
If Cook’s PPM increased by 13% then it would become 0.899, giving him a score of 72 over 80 minutes

In conclusion.
Hookers PPM increases by 3.44% against the dragons over the season
In the last 5 games there is an increase of 38%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 43.08%
The weighted average for hookers against the dragons is 4.33%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 13%

Awesome post mate. Greatly appreciated. I always read your analysis re previous posts. It's good too have another stats driven poster on the forum.

Johnny B Goode wrote:

What a tiresome Facebook quality comment.

It's a very light hearted joke I thought I'd share for those that may not have heard similar. How on earth it can evoke this sort of low shot I'll never know. More So, you clearly have a problem with me, just get it out and move on.

Not sure if posted re Tevaga. Yesterday he limped off training with what appeared to be an ankle injury & it was the same ankle he has been having problems with. However he was still named to start so Tevaga owners (I'm not one) should keep an eye out re any late mail.
I'm playing Saints1977 in L1 h2h so if you're out there bro monitor Tevaga. Does he even post on here.
I'm playing Bethany B in the eliminator so BB monitor Tevaga.

Dr Huxtable wrote:Hi team.

Thank you for the amazing insights, research and passion.

Just a word of caution for any of the people down to 2 trades, last week I was doing the usual experimental trades which you reverse 100 times before the weekend and as I was down to 2 trades used my last 2 as a double trade. The app would not allow me to reverse that double trade and was locked in (think I may have selected 2 players at once to boost my bank and then selected 2 trade ins as the one confirmed trade and this was the cause) just thought I would share that because it may help someone avoid completely prematurely fucking their team.

Can ultimately only blame myself for being down to 2 trades with 8 weeks to go but still...

I have 2 trades left as well bro but I prefer to blame my rage trading addiction rather than myself.

Ben Marlin wrote:I promised that I will do an in-depth post explaining why Cook is the best captaincy option, here it is. I will go through the other captaincy options later (Smith, McInnes, Haas, Taumalolo)

Cook is up against Dragons this week.
In 2019, starting hookers PPM against the dragons is 0.719
The same hooker’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.697
That means that starting hookers PPM increases by 3.44% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 3.44% then it would become 0.82, giving him a score of 67 over 80. minutes

The last 5 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.854
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.672
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 28% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 28% then it would become 1.02, giving him a score of 82 over 80 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.957
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.677
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 43.08% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 43.08% then it would become 1.14, giving him a score of 91 across 80 minutes

If I weight the games so that the more recent a game the high the weight and the earlier the game the less the weight (there are too many numbers to fully explain, if you want to know how I did it than I can tell you later) hookers PPM increases by 4.33% when playing against the dragons

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the dragons compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the dragons was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the dragons was lower than their season average

The equation of this graph is y = 1.3241x - 10.833
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 23.8338 - 10.833
That means y = 13.0008
If Cook’s PPM increased by 13% then it would become 0.899, giving him a score of 72 over 80 minutes

In conclusion.
Hookers PPM increases by 3.44% against the dragons over the season
In the last 5 games there is an increase of 38%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 43.08%
The weighted average for hookers against the dragons is 4.33%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 13%

That's an in-depth analysis of the numbers and thanks for putting time & effort into it.

You, obviously, has been using it the whole season so what has been your success ratio based on this? Have you compared the success ratio to the times when you you were not using this and how does the number stack up?Sorry, just being curious.

Revraiser wrote:

It's a very light hearted joke I thought I'd share for those that may not have heard similar. How on earth it can evoke this sort of low shot I'll never know. More So, you clearly have a problem with me, just get it out and move on.

I thought your joke was hilarious Rev & in the morning a good laugh does wonders.

Ben Marlin wrote:I promised that I will do an in-depth post explaining why Cook is the best captaincy option, here it is. I will go through the other captaincy options later (Smith, McInnes, Haas, Taumalolo)

Cook is up against Dragons this week.
In 2019, starting hookers PPM against the dragons is 0.719
The same hooker’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.697
That means that starting hookers PPM increases by 3.44% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 3.44% then it would become 0.82, giving him a score of 67 over 80. minutes

The last 5 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.854
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.672
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 28% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 28% then it would become 1.02, giving him a score of 82 over 80 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.957
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.677
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 43.08% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 43.08% then it would become 1.14, giving him a score of 91 across 80 minutes

If I weight the games so that the more recent a game the high the weight and the earlier the game the less the weight (there are too many numbers to fully explain, if you want to know how I did it than I can tell you later) hookers PPM increases by 4.33% when playing against the dragons

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the dragons compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the dragons was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the dragons was lower than their season average

The equation of this graph is y = 1.3241x - 10.833
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 23.8338 - 10.833
That means y = 13.0008
If Cook’s PPM increased by 13% then it would become 0.899, giving him a score of 72 over 80 minutes

In conclusion.
Hookers PPM increases by 3.44% against the dragons over the season
In the last 5 games there is an increase of 38%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 43.08%
The weighted average for hookers against the dragons is 4.33%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 13%

I forgot to add that the combined average for the graph, weighted average, 5 games, 3 games and seasonal is 75.8 points

Ben Marlin wrote:
Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the dragons compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the dragons was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the dragons was lower than their season average

The equation of this graph is y = 1.3241x - 10.833
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 23.8338 - 10.833
That means y = 13.0008
If Cook’s PPM increased by 13% then it would become 0.899, giving him a score of 72 over 80 minutes

I do love stats analysis.
.
But you are predicting that as the season goes on, hookers playing the Dragons are going to score progressively higher against there average.

If that trend does continue, Nathan Peats is going to ballistic in round 25. Your equation says he'll go 20% above his average - which is currently 53 as 80 minute hooker. (Not bad for a guy currently under $500k)

White Lightning wrote:Not sure if posted re Tevaga. Yesterday he limped off training with what appeared to be an ankle injury & it was the same ankle he has been having problems with. However he was still named to start so Tevaga owners (I'm not one) should keep an eye out re any late mail.
I'm playing Saints1977 in L1 h2h so if you're out there bro monitor Tevaga. Does he even post on here.
I'm playing Bethany B in the eliminator so BB monitor Tevaga.

Always been a gentleman

WL looking out for his enemies and making sure they bring their full gang before he destroys them

Also Ben Marlin, what do you predict Haas to score.

His current 3 game average is 78, higher than what you've predicted Cook to get. That is inflated by tries, but he still would come into captaincy consideration.

Ben Marlin wrote:
I forgot to add that the combined average for the graph, weighted average, 5 games, 3 games and seasonal is 75.8 points

Quality posting mate.

You’ve come a hell of a long way from being slated by the restless locals as MattNZ 

surmo13 wrote:

don't think Flegler is an issue for Fifita, he's a middle forward, but yeh, Shibisaki is on the recovery trial.

That said though, Shiba has hardly grabbed his opportunity with both hands, the current setup on that edge worked well last week and Seibs seems to be rewarding good form, so there's every chance if it continues to hold up it'll stay that way, but with all the variables i think it's a bit too risky at this point, i'd want Shiba to be a healthy scratch before i considered it.

I really hope we don't bring Shiba back in - he is named on extended bench this week. I think I saw Glenn was still training at left centre though.

I like Staggs on the right as well. He seems way more comfortable there, and as an owner, that suits me Regardless of what happens on the left side, I think they should persist with Staggs at right centre long term.

Milchy wrote:

I do love stats analysis.
.
But you are predicting that as the season goes on, hookers playing the Dragons are going to score progressively higher against there average.

If that trend does continue, Nathan Peats is going to ballistic in round 25. Your equation says he'll go 20% above his average - which is currently 53 as 80 minute hooker. (Not bad for a guy currently under $500k)

Sorry that was meant to be TU

There's a lot of quality captains choices this week...Taumalolo, Tedesco, Mitchell, Cook, Haas, Ponga, Smith, even McInnes. I'm liking the recent trend re greater captaincy options available because if you're chasing it's gives you more of a chance to gain ground. I'm on Cook atm but Tedesco is the kind of captaincy option if he carves up the Bulldogs he'll probably outscore Cook.

White Lightning wrote:

I thought your joke was hilarious Rev & in the morning a good laugh does wonders.

Cheers pal, and by all means when I posted that joke, I paused and thought - would it annoy anyone as it's probably a well seen joke by now, and will it offend in terms of discrimination, sexuality etc etc... but I thought nah it will be all G, light hearted and harmless.

Johnny has it in for Rev.