NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Too spoilt for choice to pick just three right now..

So much value around;
Garner
D.Fifita
Williams
Stimson
Lowe
Su'a
Tapine
Crichton

Then you have your usual suspects
N.Brown
Harris
Murray
RyMatt
Tolo
Bateman
JFH
Taupau

I physically cannot pick 3 right now

I would add Leilua to that list if he gets a starting spot at the Tigers

Chewie wrote:

I would add Leilua to that list if he gets a starting spot at the Tigers

This is true. I was more going off of my 1st round of shortlists so might have missed some players. I didn't include Leilua due to the fact there is a lot unknown about what his role will be.

SandroTilocca wrote:Lone Scout's comments RE the altering of player prices:

"In reference to questions about price bumps for some players (eg B.Brailey), a few of the most obvious cash cows have had their prices increased based on their expected larger roles this season to encourage more variety among teams.

It will make picking a starting squad more of a challenge, but nobody is really disadvantaged (the prices are the same for all Fantasy coaches after all).

Brailey is still a bargain with a break even of about 27, he just won't be in 100% of Fantasy teams now "

Sounds good to me.  

And

SandroTilocca wrote:Lone Scout's comments RE the altering of player prices:

"In reference to questions about price bumps for some players (eg B.Brailey), a few of the most obvious cash cows have had their prices increased based on their expected larger roles this season to encourage more variety among teams.

It will make picking a starting squad more of a challenge, but nobody is really disadvantaged (the prices are the same for all Fantasy coaches after all).

Brailey is still a bargain with a break even of about 27, he just won't be in 100% of Fantasy teams now "

Yes :Welcome: to the forum SandroTilocca

No Worries wrote:

It's all data and stat driven. There's no NRL tragic on the books who works as a SME. Input likely team / average fullback Vs Average winger, up Isaako by the difference (among all the other variables). It's all formulaic

Fanhub wouldn't but they would be relying on NRL for info and it would be the NRL's decision to bump players prices eg Brailey

Pretty sure the main australian fanhub office is in melbourne and they were afl guys. Doubt they'd have any idea Brailey is set for a bigger role this year without the NRL's input.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

This is true. I was more going off of my 1st round of shortlists so might have missed some players. I didn't include Leilua due to the fact there is a lot unknown about what his role will be.

I'm sure the list will change multiple times between now and TLT.
I've been narrowing down my shortlist by looking at which player I think has the biggest point increase and most money to make.
I don't want to have to many players in my team who are only going to improve 5-10 points (unless they are sub-guns moving into the gun bracket).

Daly Cherry-Evans $823,000 HLF
Jake Trbojevic $800,000 2RF
Martin Taupau $788,000 FRF
Addin Fonua-Blake $738,000 FRF
Tom Trbojevic $687,000 WFB
Curtis Sironen $639,000 2RF
Joel Thompson $576,000 2RF
Cade Cust $543,000 HLF
Reuben Garrick $500,000 WFB
Corey Waddell $447,000 2RF
Dylan Walker $446,000 HLF, CTR
Brendan Elliot $424,000 WFB
Moses Suli $388,000 CTR
Taniela Paseka $374,000 FRF
Brad Parker $345,000 CTR
Jorge Taufua $338,000 WFB
Jack Gosiewski $334,000 2RF
Toafofoa Sipley $291,000 FRF
Abbas Miski $276,000 WFB
Kelepi Tanginoa $256,000 FRF
Morgan Boyle $246,000 FRF
Lachlan Croker $246,000 HLF
Sean Keppie $246,000 FRF
Haumole Olakau'atu $246,000 2RF
Brayden Musgrove $228,000 CTR
Sam Smith $228,000 CTR
Jade Anderson $228,000 WFB
Semisi Kioa $228,000 CTR
Albert Hopoate $228,000 WFB
Tevita Funa $228,000 WFB

Trying to add a price predictor into my spreadsheet. What is the best formula to use?

For example I will have - Current Price, Predicted Score, Predicted Price

What formula should be used to calculate the predicted price by formulating the current score, the predicted score and the MN (14500). Not sure where to start.

Probably the most interesting selection from Manly isnt listed yet - Danny Levi. If he finds some consistency he should make some money. Not a gamble I'm all that keen on though.

my tv broke wrote:

Fanhub wouldn't but they would be relying on NRL for info and it would be the NRL's decision to bump players prices eg Brailey

Pretty sure the main australian fanhub office is in melbourne and they were afl guys. Doubt they'd have any idea Brailey is set for a bigger role this year without the NRL's input.

Exactly. Someone has to provide the subjective info on Isaako, Brayley etc as input to a formula. So NRL might do this, but then have no idea how it is applied in the formula. Just like how they provide info for DPP updates during the season - as those are definitely not objective, data driven decisions.

I've been looking at (genuine) guns to target for round 12. I've come up with:

Lolo, McInnes, Hunt, Moses, N Brown, Matterson, Kapow, AFB.

Assumes that Cook, Murray, Mitchell, Holmes, Arrow, DCE Jurbo, Turbo, Klemmer play origin and I haven't included potential guns such as Burns, Brimson etc.

Anyone I'm missing?

I'm liking turbo at 687k and nrl didn't even mention fainu price guess his fooked

Mulvy wrote:I've been looking at (genuine) guns to target for round 12. I've come up with:

Lolo, McInnes, Hunt, Moses, N Brown, Matterson, Kapow, AFB.

Assumes that Cook, Murray, Mitchell, Holmes, Arrow, DCE Jurbo, Turbo, Klemmer play origin and I haven't included potential guns such as Burns, Brimson etc.

Anyone I'm missing?

Do u rate Pearce as a gun

robelgordo wrote:So NRL might do this, but then have no idea how it is applied in the formula. Just like how they provide info for DPP updates during the season - as those are definitely not objective, data driven decisions.

I reckon the players who have had their prices manually inflated were probably just a case of "yeah, lets make Brailey about 400k" *sends email*

StormTrooper96 wrote:Trying to add a price predictor into my spreadsheet. What is the best formula to use?

For example I will have - Current Price, Predicted Score, Predicted Price

What formula should be used to calculate the predicted price by formulating the current score, the predicted score and the MN (14500). Not sure where to start.

I'm no expert but yes predicted score times magic number will give an estimate of the ultimate price although magic number does vary from week to week so it's only an estimate. And 14500 is only an estimate also. Also it takes a very long time to reach that price, most but not all the gains occur in about the first 4-6 weeks.

Rather than worry about price, I look at one's priced average in one column and my predicted avg in the next column with the third column the difference between the two. I want a difference of at least 10 for cash cows if possible, and maybe 5 for subguns becoming guns a couple/few for guns, and rank them accordingly. It's what I do anyway, hope that helps!

my tv broke wrote:

Probably over-thinking things, the players who have had their prices manually inflated were probably just a case of "yeah, lets make Brailey about 400k" *sends email*

Hahah could be

We're probably all overthinking things all the time here

manlybeaver wrote:
Do u rate Pearce as a gun

Probably not a definite gun. I did consider him, but if you average 44 with a bajillion kick metres and a non-dominant half beside you, probably not gun material.

my tv broke wrote:

I reckon the players who have had their prices manually inflated were probably just a case of "Hi Fiona, it was good to catch up with you the other night, we need to hook up again soon! BTW in regards to fantasy, lets make Brailey about 400k" *sends email*

Fixed!

Mulvy wrote:I've been looking at (genuine) guns to target for round 12. I've come up with:

Lolo, McInnes, Hunt, Moses, N Brown, Matterson, Kapow, AFB.

Assumes that Cook, Murray, Mitchell, Holmes, Arrow, DCE Jurbo, Turbo, Klemmer play origin and I haven't included potential guns such as Burns, Brimson etc.

Anyone I'm missing?

Latrell Mitchell in Origin?! But he's so lazy and shit.

I reckon Hunt will be there for Qld.

ARey is borderline keeper maybe? Will Hopoate (if no 2RFs available at CT)?

Bout time to dust off the account again I guess. Gday all you old fucks and welcome to the newbies