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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 4

    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

    My main thoughts on Haas come down to the fact that I think you can get comparable scores for cheaper price

    Cook scoring 64 points a week vs Haas scoring 67 points a week sees you losing 15 points over the first 5 weeks in exchange for 60k. That's the difference between playing Adam Reynolds and Nathan Cleary, which should more than make up the difference if spent correctly. The difference is even more extreme when choosing someone that didn't get the fanhub tax. Taumalolo averaged 64 when healthy and can be had for 125k less than Haas. That could be the difference between starting with Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman in the halves


    RandomSil wrote:


    Devils advocate going to post my feelings on Haas.

    Tl;dr: With the extra money from other options, can you make up potentially 12 points. While sacrificing a position with a lot of depth (in the case of McInnes, Smith and Cook). Also the main thing that the majority of teams are starting with him.

    Leaving Haas out is such a risky option. Its like going without Smith/Farah of years gone past or Cook last year.

    You save an extra $100k-$70k if you take one of the other main captains, but also risk the usual questions with Smith and Cook with a new pack as well. Haas had what was a career year stats wise. While being a breakout year the bloke who busted tackles only scored 4 tries all year. This year he will have an actual Halfback in Croft instead of what was a rotating door. Then Hooker is between McCullough and Turpin who both need to actually show up this year or lose their position now that there are alternatives.

    I can see a lot more attacking potential for him off an actually stable side. Then there is the fact he had a break out year, including rep honours and is still only 20 years old. Props normally dont peak until their mid 20s and he already had arguably one of the best Fantasy years. There is definitely a reason to say his scores dont continue, but how many times did we say that about Smith? If anythinf there is more upside potential with the idea of more attacking stats with an actual halfback taking pressure off Milford and an actual Fullback to open up the middle more.


    Haas has a break even of 69 points heading into round 1 and averaged 67 points last season. Cook and Smith averaged the closest at 62 and 63 points respectively. However they play in a position full of value at the moment with Friend/McInnes and 4 low midrange guys all potentially being worth a punt as well. So other than the value options at hooker, you also lose on average 8 or points a week by not having him, quickly adds up, and considering you are looking for value at the start of the year. It is a lot easier to shuffle your team now to come up with $100k now than in 6 rounds.

    Some people talked about making enough cash to bring him in by Round 6. Not only do you need to find the cash, but you already concede 50 points roughly from just 1 position. There is a lot of risk in not taking Haas and putting yourself behind the majority of the pack because he is so far ahead of other positions and captain choices.

    If he goes bust you dont lose much either. Like yes some initial cash, but you do that with anyone who goes bust. But the risk is mitigated because everyone else owns him and you can trade him to anyone. If you took say Cleary or Tedesco as options you would need to find extra cash to get a captain option as well
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    Post by Guest Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

    The Grant/Momirovski swap deal hasn't even happened yet & there's some doubt that it will happen.
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    Post by Guest Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:12 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    Big question with Klemmer is how does the new coach rotate his forwards. Klemmer was playing big mins last year under Brown, does Obrien continue that or spread the load a bit more. I guess it doesnt matter right now as people arent starting with Klem

    Yeah I had Klem for a bit and thought about this. Surely Glasby plays decent minutes off the bench if Barnett gets the lock spot.
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:13 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:My main thoughts on Haas come down to the fact that I think you can get comparable scores for cheaper price

    Cook scoring 64 points a week vs Haas scoring 67 points a week sees you losing 15 points over the first 5 weeks in exchange for 60k. That's the difference between playing Adam Reynolds and Nathan Cleary, which should more than make up the difference if spent correctly. The difference is even more extreme when choosing someone that didn't get the fanhub tax. Taumalolo averaged 64 when healthy and can be had for 125k less than Haas. That could be the difference between starting with Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman in the halves




    Its double that, because he is the captain
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:14 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Its double that, because he is the captain

    The difference is still easily made up by the other players

    I'd back Taumalolo(c) and Moses to outscore Haas(c) and Norman
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:16 am

    After the 9s, there will be less Haas disbelievers, will become a must have.
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    Post by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:19 am

    RandomSil wrote:No D  Fifita? What does your squad look like?

    mattnz wrote:Would be interested to see your team, sounds like it is basically the opposite of mine.

    Friend
    Haas, MoFo
    Su'A, Stimson, Hess
    Flanagan, Croft
    Lomax, Bird
    Pap, Isaako, Brimson

    Brailey, Koro, Lowe, Williams

    Grant, Luai, Magoulias, 246k

    If a decent basement CTR emerges I'd probably drop Bird and bring back DFifita for one of the 2RF middies


    Last edited by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by my tv broke Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:19 am

    I dont think youre really comparing a 67 avg vs a 64 avg when youre talking about the first six weeks (assuming at that point you try to bring Haas in). A season long average isnt really applicable. Its not as if they score 67 and 64 week on week with no variation.

    Haas will almost certainly have a 100 point game at some point during the year, and youre gambling on whether that will happen within the first 6 weeks or not. Conversely, Cook is also capable of that kind of score, though he seems more likely to get the 80 ish scores.

    You can forget averages if Haas belts out a 100 in round 2.

    Now its all a guessing game and a heap of luck as to whetger you make the right call or not here.
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:25 am

    my tv broke wrote:I dont think youre really comparing a 67 avg vs a 64 avg when youre talking about the first six weeks (assuming at that point you try to bring Haas in). A season long average isnt really applicable. Its not as if they score 67 and 64 week on week with no variation.

    Haas will almost certainly have a 100 point game at some point during the year, and youre gambling on whether that will happen within the first 6 weeks or not. Conversely, Cook is also capable of that kind of score, though he seems more likely to get the 80 ish scores.

    You can forget averages if Haas belts out a 100 in round 2.

    Now its all a guessing game and a heap of luck as to whetger you make the right call or not here.

    Thats the tricky one, if Haas starts off averaging 80 in the first 3 weeks, what do you do, destroy your team to get him in at $1.1M, or just ignore and hope he gets injured?
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    Post by my tv broke Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:28 am

    I think the first 6 weeks it is best to be a little conservative and  set yourself up for a good year. You cant win the comp in the first 6 weeks, but you can blow it
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    Post by Guest Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:29 am

    mattnz wrote:After the 9s, there will be less Haas disbelievers, will become a must have.

    Its not the fact theyre disbelievers its the fact they don't want to pay for extreme overs when he will be cheaper in the year that the devs have already made it harder with pricing
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:36 am

    mattnz wrote:After the 9s, there will be less Haas disbelievers, will become a must have.

    Watching a micky mouse competition isn't going to change my mind. I know exactly what he can do as a player, I just think I can build a better squad without him
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:42 am

    Mighty Fishes wrote:

    Its not the fact theyre disbelievers its the fact they don't want to pay for extreme overs when he will be cheaper in the year that the devs have already made it harder with pricing

    I'm expecting his value to stay up, averaging over 70 this season. He was a 19 year old kid making men look like boys in his first full season. He only gets better from here.
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:45 am

    my tv broke wrote:I dont think youre really comparing a 67 avg vs a 64 avg when youre talking about the first six weeks (assuming at that point you try to bring Haas in). A season long average isnt really applicable. Its not as if they score 67 and 64 week on week with no variation.

    Haas will almost certainly have a 100 point game at some point during the year, and youre gambling on whether that will happen within the first 6 weeks or not. Conversely, Cook is also capable of that kind of score, though he seems more likely to get the 80 ish scores.

    You can forget averages if Haas belts out a 100 in round 2.

    Now its all a guessing game and a heap of luck as to whetger you make the right call or not here.

    I would say all of Smith, Cook, Haas, Taumalolo, McInnes and Bateman are capable of that ceiling score. Hell even Andrew Fifita has a history of monster scores in limited minutes.

    For comparison sake let's look at scores of 75+

    Haas: 7/20 = 35%
    Cook: 4/23 = 17%
    Smith: 4/23(note 3 scores of 74) = 17%
    Taumalolo: 6/18 = 33%
    McInnes: 4/23 = 17%
    Bateman: 4/20 = 20%

    On any given weak Taumalolo can give you a similar average, a similar ceiling and an extra 125k cash. I know which way I'll be leaning
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    Post by my tv broke Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:50 am

    Im not saying they arent capable.. just that, if Haas is the guy to bust a 100 early on, youve got 2/3rds of the comp who are captaining him whove all got the jump on you. If you jag the guy who scores an early 100, well youre laughing. Its a big risk/reward thing

    Im not even saying Haas is the right pick, just that hes a safer pick.


    Last edited by my tv broke on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:57 am

    mattnz wrote:

    I'm expecting his value to stay up, averaging over 70 this season. He was a 19 year old kid making men look like boys in his first full season. He only gets better from here.

    Again we come back to Cameron Smith's 2013 season for the last time someone managed to average 70+

    Smith managed to average 70.8 in 21 games with the following incredible year:

    • 0 injury affected games. Smith was subbed 3 times and missed a combined 15 minutes of game time the entire season. However an extra 18 minutes of game time was picked up due to golden point games

    • 7 penalties and 8 errors from the entire season. For a player that touched the ball more than 2100 times that season and made 909 tackles those ratios are incredible

    • An effective tackle percentage of 96.4%. Not only was Smith making a high volume of tackles with over 43 a game, he was missing a very low volume

    • 81 successful shots at goal, a stat category that Haas is unable to replicate

      It took almost a perfect season from the best player in the world for an average above 70. Not only is Haas not close to the player Smith was, he doesn't have as many categories to score in


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    Post by Mulvy Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:57 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Thats the tricky one, if Haas starts off averaging 80 in the first 3 weeks, what do you do, destroy your team to get him in at $1.1M, or just ignore and hope he gets injured?

    If he averages 80 for 3 weeks his price barely changes.
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    Post by mattnz Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:58 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I would say all of Smith, Cook, Haas, Taumalolo, McInnes and Bateman are capable of that ceiling score. Hell even Andrew Fifita has a history of monster scores in limited minutes.

    For comparison sake let's look at scores of 75+

    Haas: 7/20 = 35%
    Cook: 4/23 = 17%
    Smith: 4/23(note 3 scores of 74) = 17%
    Taumalolo: 6/18 = 33%
    McInnes: 4/23 = 17%
    Bateman: 4/20 = 20%

    On any given weak Taumalolo can give you a similar average, a similar ceiling and an extra 125k cash. I know which way I'll be leaning

    Lolo is a great example of how much growth a middle forward has in their early 20s.

    In 2014 he averaged 41
    2015 averaged 43
    2016 averaged 49
    2017 averaged 62

    Haas may not gain 20 points the next 3 seasons, but 10+ is certainly in reach as he matures and grows as a player.


    Last edited by mattnz on Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by GreenMachine Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:59 am

    Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:My 2nd most expensive player is nearly 400k cheaper than my most expensive player.

    Filthy middies all the way

    Just did a little vomit in my mouth.

    My left side of screen now shows spine of;
    Cook
    Haas
    Tlolo
    Moses
    CTR... eep, moving right along
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    Post by Chewie Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:02 am

    I don't think it will make a huge difference starting with Haas or not, as long as you have a solid captaincy choice. A good start to the season depends on the synergy of your whole team and strategic early trades, it's not just dependent on 1 player.

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