NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 23 - Trade-a-palooza

GreenMachine wrote:Kikau is bit of a sleeping giant

my tv broke wrote:

He was someone i thought could return to big scoring this year. I think panthers will go well and he will be a big part of it.

I didnt mention him but realistically i wasnt ever gonna pick him

With the reduced format though im considering taking the punt... boom or bust

More of a last few trades hail mary for mine. I went with Shaun Lane in that role last year, which ended with Ma'u scoring a heap of tries. High ceiling, low floor and can score in bunches over a few weeks

GreenMachine wrote:Congrats RnT!

And to Welshy Re: Lucy as didn’t get to respond before thread locked. Make no mistake I’ll be draining that lemon dry. Only binning when BE gets up. Point was hes not a Final 17.

I have him ranked around 2RF 14. Like to think I can get a few above that the next weeks

Ahh right thought he was already going, would of been pointless starting with him really haha! His average as starting 2RF is very impressive but sample size is small. Big IF for him to maintain it but would catapult him just below the Turbo range and with guys like KBrom, even if he settles around the 50 was a great investment to start the year

Thoughts on my 4 trades? I keep flip flopping some of them but I'd like some feedback on them as a whole.

Team before trades with 73k ITB:

Api
Haas, Carrigan
Lolo, Arrow, Lucy
Mann, Croft
Lomax, Wiliame
Drinky, Papy, Hughes

Brailey, Knight, Katoa, Walters

Luai, Rudolf, Musgrove, Watkins

The trades I've currently done:

Knight -> Grant

Watkins -> J Hopoate

Musgrove -> JTB

Croft -> Xerri (a POD at CTR that could very well be a final 17 player)

These trades leave me with $370K ITB, money that I plan on using to get Cleary in 2 weeks time, and one more gun if I can afford it (ideally Teddy but that will be a tricky one). With Arrow, Lolo and Haas in my side, I think my forward pack is good for now, and my main focus at the moment is trying to get final 17 players in as early as I can, prioritising positions that I don't already have guns in, like CTR, HLF and WFB. The reason I want to get Xerri this week is that he is potentially a final 17 player at CTR, is only 1.7% owned, and has the Tigers (running at the Leiluas) this round, followed by the Cowboys

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on my 4 trades? I keep flip flopping some of them but I'd like some feedback on them as a whole.

Team before trades with 73k ITB:

Api
Haas, Carrigan
Lolo, Arrow, Lucy
Mann, Croft
Lomax, Wiliame
Drinky, Papy, Hughes

Brailey, Knight, Katoa, Walters

Luai, Rudolf, Musgrove, Watkins

The trades I've currently done:

Knight -> Grant

Watkins -> J Hopoate

Musgrove -> JTB

Croft -> Xerri (a POD at CTR that could very well be a final 17 player)

These trades leave me with $370K ITB, money that I plan on using to get Cleary in 2 weeks time, and one more gun if I can afford it (ideally Teddy but that will be a tricky one). With Arrow, Lolo and Haas in my side, I think my forward pack is good for now, and my main focus at the moment is trying to get final 17 players in as early as I can, prioritising positions that I don't already have guns in, like CTR, HLF and WFB. The reason I want to get Xerri this week is that he is potentially a final 17 player at CTR, is only 1.7% owned, and has the Tigers (running at the Leiluas) this round, followed by the Cowboys

CTR is the last spot I would look to upgrade given low floor especially given shortened season meaning you can’t get as many guns as usual

Camo123 wrote:

CTR is the last spot I would look to upgrade given low floor especially given shortened season meaning you can’t get as many guns as usual

Got any better ideas? Keep in mind I'm trying to have enough cash to jump at Cleary in 2 weeks, and ideally Teddy as well. None of the halves or WFB at a similar price point are any good, and I've got enough cash cows already.

Milchcow wrote:
Any other info that needs to be in the top post?

Rabbit went full tinfoil hat about COVID-19 on FB fantasy pages and got slaughtered

Wouldn't  mind if Mary's 17 incudes Kerr, Fuimaono

Bethany_B wrote:

Got any better ideas? Keep in mind I'm trying to have enough cash to jump at Cleary in 2 weeks, and ideally Teddy as well. None of the halves or WFB at a similar price point are any good, and I've got enough cash cows already.

I'd look at getting gun HLF now
Knight, Walters, Croft, Watkins out for Moses, Grant, JHop, JTB leaves 261k
Could probably afford Mann + Brailey for Cleary + 300-350k player (Best??)

Even though Teddy has potential to explode at any point I would still rate a gun HLF with floor of 40 greater than him at the moment. Lower BE for Moses and your WFB is fine for the time being

One opinion shouldn't deter you though, but I do think you focus too much on PODs sometimes. Most of the time if a POD is good they won't be a POD for long

Edit: @Bethany_B if you were taking genuine CTR why not Staggs

Khany wrote:Wouldn't  mind if Mary's 17 incudes Kerr, Fuimaono

Would suit me as a Kerr owner, but don't see it happening with both the Sims brothers back and Luke and Merrin also on the bench. They are in competition for the last bench spot.

Big decision for me might be between Walters and Knight as my last trade.
Knight gives me more options

Camo123 wrote:

I'd look at getting gun HLF now
Knight, Walters, Croft, Watkins out for Moses, Grant, JHop, JTB leaves 261k
Could probably afford Mann + Brailey for Cleary + 300-350k player (Best??)

Even though Teddy has potential to explode at any point I would still rate a gun HLF with floor of 40 greater than him at the moment. Lower BE for Moses and your WFB is fine for the time being

One opinion shouldn't deter you though, but I do think you focus too much on PODs sometimes. Most of the time if a POD is good they won't be a POD for long

Edit: @Bethany_B if you were taking genuine CTR why not Staggs

That's fair enough. The main reasons I don't go straight at Moses is:

1) I feel like going for both Moses and Cleary is overkill in my halves, hence why I'm looking at other positions while I wait for Cleary to return.
2) I think Teddy will average more than Moses over the season, especially with no Origin. Both have similar floors (Moses's is in the mid 20s, Teddy's in the low 20s) and similarly high ceilings.
3) If I'm going for a gun half, I want one with a floor better than Moses. DCE has a floor in the mid 30s and a ceiling almost as high, and won't be gone over Origin.

As for Staggs, he's got a lower floor (low 20s) than Xerri does (mid 20s), and won't make enough cash to be worth the cash grab. I don't think Staggs will be a final 17 player at CTR, while Xerri very well could be (it's likely out of him, Marsters and Latrell).

As for focusing on PODs a lot, I do agree somewhat, but it's worked for me in the past, last year was my best season by a long way, and it worked because I got on some massive PODs before anyone else did, and I got all those early big scores before anyone else boarded the hype train (e.g. Wighton and Papalii, plus Tevaga to a lesser extent). I think my approach has worked so far this year, as I don't own any of the major duds except Musgrove, Watkins and Knight, meaning I can use my trades to go POD chasing instead of plugging holes.

mattnz wrote:
Would suit me as a Kerr owner, but don't see it happening with both the Sims brothers back and Luke and Merrin also on the bench. They are in competition for the last bench spot.

If neither Kerr or Kennedy get named I'll be in a real pickle. It will mean I'll have to keep Jack Williams, which is the last thing I want to have to do. Unless I hold Fifita. Or a non-playing Kerr. Who the balls knows? I just want Kerr and Kennedy both named... please.

Actually, no, I've already decided I'm holding Kennedy even if he doesn't get named. I'm just so sure that either Moylan or Dugan, or both, get injured before round 4, if they even line up for round 3.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's fair enough. The main reasons I don't go straight at Moses is:

1) I feel like going for both Moses and Cleary is overkill in my halves, hence why I'm looking at other positions while I wait for Cleary to return.
2) I think Teddy will average more than Moses over the season, especially with no Origin. Both have similar floors (Moses's is in the mid 20s, Teddy's in the low 20s) and similarly high ceilings.
3) If I'm going for a gun half, I want one with a floor better than Moses. DCE has a floor in the mid 30s and a ceiling almost as high, and won't be gone over Origin.

As for Staggs, he's got a lower floor (low 20s) than Xerri does (mid 20s), and won't make enough cash to be worth the cash grab. I don't think Staggs will be a final 17 player at CTR, while Xerri very well could be (it's likely out of him, Marsters and Latrell).

As for focusing on PODs a lot, I do agree somewhat, but it's worked for me in the past, last year was my best season by a long way, and it worked because I got on some massive PODs before anyone else did, and I got all those early big scores before anyone else boarded the hype train (e.g. Wighton and Papalii, plus Tevaga to a lesser extent). I think my approach has worked so far this year, as I don't own any of the major duds except Musgrove, Watkins and Knight, meaning I can use my trades to go POD chasing instead of plugging holes.

Fair enough.
The only thing I disagree with is Moses floor is mid 20s
Using 2019 averages for Moses, floor of tackles & MT, RM, KM, goals (17 tackles, 4 MT, 59 RM, 376 KM, 3 goals) = 17 - 8 + 5 + 16 + 6 = 36 points
DCE's floor using 2019 averages (excluding injury game) is slightly above (17 tackles, 1 MT, 66 RM, 341 KM) but not by much (17 - 2 + 6 + 17) = 38 points

Loomer wrote:

Rabbit went full tinfoil hat about COVID-19 on FB fantasy pages and got slaughtered

Nah I need a link man lmao

It's all well and good to say Moses's floor is 36 points - but he scored under that 5 times last year (6 if you count finals), a not insignificant number

Milchcow wrote:
It's all well and good to say Moses's floor is 36 points - but he scored under that 5 times last year (6 if you count finals), a not insignificant number

Wonder if the rule change around six again means more KMs for ultra-dominant kickers like Moses, DCE, ARey because there will be fewer relieving penalties.

Camo123 wrote:

Fair enough.
The only thing I disagree with is Moses floor is mid 20s
Using 2019 averages for Moses, floor of tackles & MT, RM, KM, goals (17 tackles, 4 MT, 59 RM, 376 KM, 3 goals) = 17 - 8 + 5 + 16 + 6 = 36 points
DCE's floor using 2019 averages (excluding injury game) is slightly above (17 tackles, 1 MT, 66 RM, 341 KM) but not by much (17 - 2 + 6 + 17) = 38 points

That's fair, I just took Moses's lowest few scores and compared to DCE's lowest few scores.

In other news, I just did some statistical analysis comparing some of the top halves (Brooks, Moses, Hunt, Munster, DCE, Milf, Cleary, SJ), mostly looking at variance, as well as % of scores under 35 and % of scores over 50. I removed three injury affected games (SJ and DCE in round 7, Ben Hunt in round 22).

The most consistent halves (lowest variance) were in order: SJ(224.23), DCE(226.03), Milf(276.40), Brooks(280.16), Munster(316.78), Moses(353.33), Cleary(376.15) and Hunt(403.45) (though Cleary was affected by Maloney being there, so he'll probably do better in this regard this year).

The most consistent halves (lowest % of games under 35 points) were: DCE/Munster(0%), Cleary(4.76%), Milf(8.7%), Hunt(10%), Brooks/SJ(12.5%), Moses(20.83%)

The most consistently good halves (highest % of games over 50 points) were: Cleary(52.38%), Milf(47.83%), Munster(47.62%), Hunt(45%), Brooks(41.67%), DCE(38.89%), SJ(37.5%), Moses(33.33%)

Based on this analysis, I think my best bet for a gun half (in addition to Cleary who seems the real deal this year) is either Milf or DCE, and both have looked really good at the start of 2020. Milf having Croft there really does a lot, and he hasn't lost much in the way of kick metres. Moses just doesn't seem to be quite as good as the rest, and it shows, with him ranking 6th for variance and dead last in the other two categories, and by quite a distance in both of them.

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on my 4 trades? I keep flip flopping some of them but I'd like some feedback on them as a whole.

Team before trades with 73k ITB:

Api
Haas, Carrigan
Lolo, Arrow, Lucy
Mann, Croft
Lomax, Wiliame
Drinky, Papy, Hughes

Brailey, Knight, Katoa, Walters

Luai, Rudolf, Musgrove, Watkins

The trades I've currently done:

Knight -> Grant

Watkins -> J Hopoate

Musgrove -> JTB

Croft -> Xerri (a POD at CTR that could very well be a final 17 player)

These trades leave me with $370K ITB, money that I plan on using to get Cleary in 2 weeks time, and one more gun if I can afford it (ideally Teddy but that will be a tricky one). With Arrow, Lolo and Haas in my side, I think my forward pack is good for now, and my main focus at the moment is trying to get final 17 players in as early as I can, prioritising positions that I don't already have guns in, like CTR, HLF and WFB. The reason I want to get Xerri this week is that he is potentially a final 17 player at CTR, is only 1.7% owned, and has the Tigers (running at the Leiluas) this round, followed by the Cowboys

I like the outs list. Right players to move on
Grant aside, I don’t love those INs

They just feel to me like 4 players that you will want out of your final roster, meaning 8 moves committed, in a shortened season, and with less trades.

Team list dependent would definitely look at Magoulias over JTB/Hopoate. He may end up a relevant fantasy number 18.

Xerri is nice differential play but think centre punts for later.

I want to watch him R3 myself but funding a Mann to Watson move would be a direction id be looking in your spot or go harder and turn Mann into DCE via cashouts. Feels far more final and final 17 than a Xerri punt with money itb

DT saying this is who teams are playing twice.

Tigers - Eels, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Knights, Bulldogs

Cronulla: Dragons, Warriors, Titans, Cowboys, Panthers.

Eels: Broncos, Tigers, Panthers, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles.

Panthers: Eels, Cowboys, Sharks, Tigers, Warriors.

Raiders: Storm, Dragons, Roosters, Warriors, Titans

Melbourne: Roosters, Rabbitohs, Knights, Raiders, Sea Eagles

Roosters: Storm, Broncos, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Raiders

Warriors: Sharks, Panthers, Knights, Raiders, Sea Eagles

Bulldogs: Dragons, Eels, Tigers, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles

Titans: Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons, Sharks, Raiders

Brisbane: Cowboys, Eels, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Titans

Cowboys: Brisbane, Cronulla, Panthers, Knights, Titans

Dragons: Sharks, Roosters, Bulldogs, Raiders, Titans

Rabbitohs: Storm, Broncos, Roosters, Tigers, Bulldogs

Knights: Storm, Cowboys, Tigers, Warriors, Sea Eagles

Sea Eagles: Storm, Eels, Knights, Warriors, Bulldogs

Evening all. I am praying hard for Kennedy to keep that FB spot. 4 trades just isn’t enough. I still have one trade to make so far have brought in Grant, Twal, and JTB. The final option looks like Guler, Magoulias, Luai, or Hopoate. Mags would be the easy choice if he gets lock. If not which of these would be the way to go?