NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry

I just quickly shortlisted 55 players of interest without putting much thought in. 13 of them are DPP. So despite the low overall DPPs numbers, I think there are enough amongst the value players to have decent squad depth.

Must be a slow news day;

"But to use a well-worn rugby league cliche, Moylan is said to have trained the house down this pre-season, getting plenty of kilometres into his legs to build his most solid platform in years.

Cronulla coach John Morris, who last week enthused that Moylan was "flying", has all but confirmed he'll play five-eighth while Shaun Johnson rehabs an Achilles injury for the first eight-or-so rounds."

Last time he regularly partnered the Chad at 5/8 was in 2018, where he averaged 34.3.

That equates to being undervalued by about $150k - assuming a static MN (which it won't be), and an injury-free run (which it (probably) won't be)

"Flying" is this years "house down"

I have no faith in Moylan at all but hes still pretry hard to ignore. Can just chuck him in 18-21 and the DPP is handy

Moylans 2018 season at 5/8 includes such highlights as:

2 points in 80 minutes (vs the Raiders)

82 points including a try (vs the Panthers)

67 points including a whopping 6 try assists (vs the Knights)

8 other try assists across 17 games

Missed just rounds 2 and 3.

my tv broke wrote:I have no faith in Moylan at all but hes still pretry hard to ignore. Can just chuck him in 18-21 and the DPP is handy

It does look like easy money, and surely will catch a break from injuries at some point (plus will be in so many teams, it doesn't seem worth avoiding at that price)

If in the trials he looks like he has any straight line speed at all (unlike last year) I think hes cheap enough to risk the prospect of a future injury trade being required

But I’m also eyeing a lot of frequently injured players so it could be a disaster

At this point it is more newsworthy if a player isn’t training down houses or taking to the skies

Having said that, if I hear Nathan Brown is flying I’ll probably be suckered in in record time.

Payne Haas trivia
Just a little bit because the big guy isn't getting mentioned (yet).
I thought I'd take a little look at the potential impact on Payne Haas' scoring on the basis of a historical "less-minutes" approach to his role - being about a 15-25 minute rest, so likely 55-65 game time. 

Interestingly, to date he has eighteen 70+ scores, half of which are on the less-minutes, and half on the 70+ minutes role. Obviously, there is a benefit to more minutes (still an awesome PPM of about 0.95), but a huge PPM of 1.10 on less minutes closes the scoring average.

His lower minutes role is helped by all 5 of his career tries falling into this qualifier, but at the same time - all his tries fall into this... (a more potent attacking weapon?)

I also wonder what will happen with the new rules in terms of fatigue and opportunities around the middle. It looks like it should be a positive for fitter players (and there don't seem to be many Middles that are fitter than Mr Haas). 

So, the big question is, is a ~$50-80k over value Haas actually potentially still worth it?

A BIG table:

I just made a team I enjoy and I have 1.26 mil remaining...

Grant
Lolo Lodge La-m
Gilbert CHN
Fogarty Schuster
Averillo Bird
Turbo Mitchell Simonsson

Jrailey Ford Watson Riki
Moylan Blore 246 246

1.26m remaining...

I'm more interested in Townsend than Moylan. Priced at 33, in 6 games in 2019 without SJ he averaged 47.5, with KM increasing from 196 to 318 on average. In 2018 in 18 games with Moylan he averaged 44.11. So at least 10 points underpriced.

It's just whether SJ is out long enough to make him a better option than Lam, Milford, Brooks, CHT in a similar price range.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Grant
Lolo Lodge La-m
Fogarty Schuster
Averillo Bird
Turbo Mitchell Simonsson

Jrailey Ford Watson Riki
Moylan Blore 246 246

1.26m remaining...

Probably got that much money left because you forgot the EDG players

Nice point about Haas @easytiger. I still want him, but I might just wait for that 80k or so drop.

For those that use it, here is my excel solver sheet for optimising team selection.

https://www.mediafire.com/file/v0hidtf0hwooxhu/2021+coach+predictor.xlsm/file

Any issues using it post here and I can try and sort you out

What are people's thoughts on Taukeiaho

I swear every year people get excited about the prospect of better minutes, and every year he fails to deliver consistently. Goes on a run of good form for a month or so and then reverts to normal.

if he is going to be goal kicker every year then the extra 5-6 points a week might be enough, But I've been disappointed by him in the past (and like Tom Trbojevic, and in previous seasons Aubbs I am considering coming back for more)

Milchcow wrote:What are people's thoughts on Taukeiaho

I swear every year people get excited about the prospect of better minutes, and every year he fails to deliver consistently. Goes on a run of good form for a month or so and then reverts to normal.

if he is going to be goal kicker every year then the extra 5-6 points a week might be enough, But I've been disappointed by him in the past (and like Tom Trbojevic, and in previous seasons Aubbs   I am considering coming back for more)

I'm pretty tempted, I guess the big question is, will he be the primary goal kicker? Fitzgibbon seemed to be of that opinion on the TK podcast but easy for coaches to throw around those lines in pre season.

If he is the primary goalkicker then you'd assume he plays big minutes .. ?

I’m quite keen on SST but he causes problems when I try to fit into my draft 

I haven’t been burnt by him before though

I looked at SST but reckon Radley being back is the key to him only being a 40 point player but he gets some of that back with GK, so will average 47 and likely overpriced.

Injuries definetly help him, played a few 80 minute games when Radley got injured and 2 x Ikuvalu injuries.

my tv broke wrote:

I'm pretty tempted, I guess the big question is, will he be the primary goal kicker? Fitzgibbon seemed to be of that opinion on the TK podcast but easy for coaches to throw around those lines in pre season.

If he is the primary goalkicker then you'd assume he plays big minutes .. ?

Robinson does not seem like the sort of coach to play a forward extra minutes just in case they get an extra shot at goal.

I didn't think Haas would keep playing 80 every week last year either, but I think Roosters have their workloads better managed than that.