NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

mattnz wrote:
There were only 6 of them last season.

Who are they this year? (asking for a friend)

my tv broke wrote:

In a season where scores were artificially increased across the board by the rule changes, don't have that luxury this year.

Who's in those six? Grant and Carrigan were in everyone's teams, they were obvious choices (not necessarily as 60+ scorers to start with though), Harris had a role change that no one knew about, and were unsure would continue. Crichton? Nothing obvious to start the season but he was fighting for the starting spot in round 1.

All I'm saying is the likelihood of landing on a player who will start averaging 60+ is pretty low (that is priced sub 50) without any obvious role/position changes.

Also can't see any 246/228k absolute base price guys that'll elevate to absolute guns in one season in the Grant/Haas/Hunt manner. There's usually one or two, and thinking back, they're usually hookers or halves. Haas is an exception as is Nikora but only because he was a 2rf putting up gun centre scores. Can't think of anyone else off-hand. And there are no complete rookie hookers or halves around this year as yet.

my tv broke wrote:

In a season where scores were artificially increased across the board by the rule changes, don't have that luxury this year.

Who's in those six? Grant and Carrigan were in everyone's teams, they were obvious choices (not necessarily as 60+ scorers to start with though), Harris had a role change that no one knew about, and were unsure would continue. Crichton? Nothing obvious to start the season but he was fighting for the starting spot in round 1.

All I'm saying is the likelihood of landing on a player who will start averaging 60+ is pretty low (that is priced sub 50) without any obvious role/position changes.

Grant, Carrigan, Koro, Harris, Ponga, Crichton were the 6. Through this season we will see opportunities as well, with player injuries, roles changing and likely guns returning that are underpriced.

Guys that could easily make the leap to gun in their position, given opportunity include:
Watson - wants a big minute lock role, if he gets it could hit really big numbers
Fainu - an 80 minute hooker role would see him at 60+ average. Over 70 minutes he averages 62 under the old rules.
Suaalii - could be anything if Teddy gets injured. Each of the last few seasons we have seen a rookie gun it from the start - Best, Grant, Haas

There will be others too that appear, just need to get on board at the right time.

Suaalii would be lucky to average 40 even with an extended run at fullback

In no particularly order Teddy, Ponga, Turbo, Edwards, RTS, Papy, Gutho, Brimson will all easily outscore him. His ceiling is probably CNK tier of scorer

This discussion started because you intimated that a guy priced under 40 who will average 50 is a bad selection to start the year because you should be picking guys who will average 60 instead, and then suggest three guys, one who will be in every team anyway, and two who can't play NRL for the foreseeable future.

Moley reporting - Newcastle have suffered a major blow, with star back-rower Lachlan Fitzgibbon set to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery yesterday.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Suaalii would be lucky to average 40 even with an extended run at fullback

In no particularly order Teddy, Ponga, Turbo, Edwards, RTS, Papy, Gutho, Brimson will all easily outscore him. His ceiling is probably CNK tier of scorer

I mean, Manu would play fullback if Teddy got injured anyway. Sualli may turn out to be amazing but he's obviously backup this year, along with Billy Smith, to the best back five in the comp.

The Roosters are making a fuss to get him registered a. because they're worried he'll piss off to union, b. to get him some experience before a pretty big backline overhaul in 2022 with the Morris boys retiring and NZ possibly after Manu to replace RTS.

Based on this potential for a player to go from 50 average to 60 average thing I shortlisted a few with the potential to look at:

TKO - if GK and plays 55-60 every week, but I don't believe this happens.
Munster - If GK
Robson - if 80 min hooker
Papenhuyzen - if GK and scores a shit tonne of tries
Tapine - not going to happen
Friend - if 80 minutes, uninjured and Verrills f***s Robinsons wife (aint gonna happen).

Camo123 wrote:
Didn’t you think he was better at lock fantasy wise when you were arguing in Chewie’s team tracker

Yes if playing 80mins he won’t get that though! Even if he goes to Cronulla this season he will get around 60mins I reckon so not enough.

This McCullough news locks in Cleary as my captain!

Iron Mike wrote:This McCullough news locks in Cleary as my captain!

Yep if you don’t wanna full behind start with and captain Cleary.

mattnz wrote:
Grant, Carrigan, Koro, Harris, Ponga, Crichton were the 6. Through this season we will see opportunities as well, with player injuries, roles changing and likely guns returning that are underpriced.

It's also not enough to identify who did it after the season, you need to figure it out before the season starts.

Carrigan was in every team before round 1 based on him being close to base priced and starting
Grant was in every serious team within 2 weeks of joining the Tigers on loan

Starting with either of these guys gave you zero advantage over the pack so their actual scores were irrelevant

Koroisau was a very popular starting pick based on his previous scores. I'd be surprised if any serious team didn't own him

Crichton didn't show any signs of his role changing with him actually missing round 1. You would have been crazy to start with 700k on the bench not knowing his role

There were no signs Ponga was going to take the next step. Scoring 10 tries in 18 games heavily contributed to his increased average and is probably not repeatable.

The only player that would have really gained an edge was Tohu Harris. He started the season exactly as he had previously playing 80 minutes on the edge. It was only after round 3 when Tevaga still hadn't returned that he shuffled to middle, although there was still concerns he would lose that role when Tevaga returned and revert to a 40 odd point edge scorer

Basically to take advantage of these guys you had to take a risk (Ponga scoring more tries, Crichton coming back from injury causing a pack reshuffle or Harris changing his role in round 3). Aside from Ponga, who some preferred at a discount over Teddy, it's very unlikely anyone would choose these guys

The actual repeatable change (and something to look out for) is Yeo. A player who changes roles and is likely to produce higher scores as a result. There was a slight preview of this during Panthers trials where Yeo spent 10 minutes as a ball playing lock. Finding something like this can put you miles ahead of the pack

McCullough news probably puts my off Ford a bit too. There is probably no chance he spends time in the middle now and if Bird starts in the 14 and spend time on an edge as reported then Ford prob gets about 60 mins?
Im probably way off the mark with all of this but could be something to keep an eye out in the trials.

mattnz wrote:It wont be exactly these players, but end of season gun team should look something like:
Cook/Grant
Haas Lolo "60+ Mid Gun"
Crichton Matterson
Cleary Moses
Best Lomax
Teddy Ponga "55+ WFB Gun"

McInnes Harris Koro  "60+ Gun"
Cheap cover x 4 that you have traded down to through the season

Interestingly, only 6 of these played origin last season. Just find the 3 missing players that don't play Origin as early as possible and you are set.

I will bet anything that no end of season team looks that good.

The interesting thing for this year, is that most of the "obvious" undervalued players (at least those we can be confident will start in first grade) are cheap because of injury, so there is more risk in picking them compared to the likes of Koroisau/Ponga/Yeo.

Iron Mike wrote:Based on this potential for a player to go from 50 average to 60 average thing I shortlisted a few with the potential to look at:

TKO - if GK and plays 55-60 every week, but I don't believe this happens.
Munster - If GK
Robson - if 80 min hooker
Papenhuyzen - if GK and scores a shit tonne of tries
Tapine - not going to happen
Friend - if 80 minutes, uninjured and Verrills f***s Robinsons wife (aint gonna happen).

Others who have the potential:

Fogarty: averaged 61.4 in 80-minute games between rounds 9-19 last year.

Saifiti: He's 24 now, touching on 100 first grade games, another Origin series under his belt, and in eight 50+ minute games last year he averaged 59.9.

AFB: Unlikely but if the Warriors decide to play him 60+ minutes his average is 62.

Tino: Everyone's on him already and I think it would take a heap of attacking stats, but not impossible I guess.

Mahoney: Into his third year as a starter. Went from averaging 51 in 80 minute games in 2019 to 56 in 80 minute games in 2020. Not inconceivable he adds another 5 points to that this year? Maybe gets less minutes with Lussick and Roache hanging around.

Horse: A sample size of two whole games, but he averaged 61 when playing 60+ minutes last year. Can't see him getting that much of a role obviously.

Brown: Priced at 55, but averaged 65 in a 70+ minute lock role last year. Only a 6 game sample size. Unlikely to get those minutes consistently you'd think.

If Teddy gets injured wouldn’t they just play Manu at fullback like they normally do?

I had to get a procedure done this morning and it was the first time I was put under. While I was waiting to be picked up I played around with my team. I’ve come too a little bit hate the tea and have no idea how it was set up before.... fiddlesticks

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Lachlan Fitzgibbon set to miss the start of the season ...

*locks in Connor Watson and Tyson Frizell into squad*