NRL Fantasy 2021 part 6 - Return of the Party

Mulvy wrote:

I'm good with not starting a mistakes thread and moving on anyway?

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1526-2020-nrl-fantasy-mistake-thread#467056

Too late

Mulvy wrote:

Umm, so what were your mistakes?

Bothering to post that Knight Levi and Magoulias were mistakes, as you still didnt understand that when it is obvious!

rhinoceroo wrote:

I've just looked at your last Assistant Coach post, where you've picked up Simpkin about three minutes after hearing of him and say "he could be this year's Grant, if Liddle gets injured and Madge prefers him".

Fine, he might be a good pick (if he is then everyone will get him before he hits 300k anyway), but don't pretend your decision making is all on "known information at the time" ahead of "factors beyond your control."

Lets compare Simpkin with a guy like Niu that the consensus here is that he may provide some cover, isnt guaranteed a spot and has low upside potential, but is in almost everyone's team.

Simpkin is covering a guy with a worse injury history than Turbo, is clearly the far better player and the future of the club, is up against a guy that has never played 80 minutes even when starting, and has shown he can cover playing in the middle off the bench. A 40 minute 40 point game isn't at all out of the realms of possibility in the first few weeks. Add in the fact that he has the potential to be a gun and be $400k+ underpriced should get far more priority than the meh guy.

These are the known factors coming into the season and what can drive decision making now.

I may get "lucky" and he gets those opportunities, but I created the opportunity for a low risk, high reward scenario.

mattnz wrote:

Lets compare Simpkin with a guy like Niu that the consensus here is that he may provide some cover, isnt guaranteed a spot and has low upside potential, but is in almost everyone's team.

Simpkin is covering a guy with a worse injury history than Turbo, is clearly the far better player and the future of the club, is up against a guy that has never played 80 minutes even when starting, and has shown he can cover playing in the middle off the bench. A 40 minute 40 point game isn't at all out of the realms of possibility in the first few weeks. Add in the fact that he has the potential to be a gun and be $400k+ underpriced should get far more priority than the meh guy.

These are the known factors coming into the season and what can drive decision making now.

I may get "lucky" and he gets those opportunities, but I created the opportunity for a low risk, high reward scenario.

What's the exit strategy if he plays 20 minutes for 15 points like most bench hookers then gets dropped after week 1. Sounds like a red dot waiting to happen*

*Disclaimer I haven't watched 1 minute of Simpkin play and he may well be a gun

mattnz wrote:

Lets compare Simpkin with a guy like Niu that the consensus here is that he may provide some cover, isnt guaranteed a spot and has low upside potential, but is in almost everyone's team.

Simpkin is covering a guy with a worse injury history than Turbo, is clearly the far better player and the future of the club, is up against a guy that has never played 80 minutes even when starting, and has shown he can cover playing in the middle off the bench. A 40 minute 40 point game isn't at all out of the realms of possibility in the first few weeks. Add in the fact that he has the potential to be a gun and be $400k+ underpriced should get far more priority than the meh guy.

These are the known factors coming into the season and what can drive decision making now.

I may get "lucky" and he gets those opportunities, but I created the opportunity for a low risk, high reward scenario.

I'm not saying Simpkin will be a bad pick, I'm saying your justification for getting him (on the other thread) used exactly the same out-of-your-hands conjecture that you're criticising others for.

Niu is going to be a DPP CTR/WFB, btw, which is why he's at 21 in so many teams

mattnz wrote:

Lets compare Simpkin with a guy like Niu that the consensus here is that he may provide some cover, isnt guaranteed a spot and has low upside potential, but is in almost everyone's team.

Simpkin is covering a guy with a worse injury history than Turbo, is clearly the far better player and the future of the club, is up against a guy that has never played 80 minutes even when starting, and has shown he can cover playing in the middle off the bench. A 40 minute 40 point game isn't at all out of the realms of possibility in the first few weeks. Add in the fact that he has the potential to be a gun and be $400k+ underpriced should get far more priority than the meh guy.

These are the known factors coming into the season and what can drive decision making now.

I may get "lucky" and he gets those opportunities, but I created the opportunity for a low risk, high reward scenario.

How long before Laurie gets FB though, and Mbye likely shifts to 14 to cover basically every backline position + HOK, meaning Simpkin would drop out (assuming he is still bench HOK )

With Munster not likely GK, I keep coming back to Flanagan

I don't think he'll provide huge value, but I think he can push close to matching Moses and potentially being 3rd keeper HLF with dominant KM

I guess the biggest question is will he still be targeted in defence and make as many tackles, because I think loss of GK is offset by added KM

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

What's the exit strategy if he plays 20 minutes for 15 points like most bench hookers then gets dropped after week 1. Sounds like a red dot waiting to happen*

*Disclaimer I haven't watched 1 minute of Simpkin play and he may well be a gun

If Liddle doesn't get injured, and suddenly starts playing 80 minutes in a much faster game than he has ever played in, when his average minutes as starting hooker is 42 in 9 starts - Yeah right! (as we would say in NZ)

mattnz wrote:
Simpkin is covering a guy with a worse injury history than Turbo, is clearly the far better player and the future of the club, is up against a guy that has never played 80 minutes even when starting

This is why people have an issue with your predictions.

Simpkin is a guy who has played 0 minutes of first grade. He has not proven to any degree that he is capable of playing lock in a first grade game. To state with confidence he is a better player than someone who has been around a couple of years is nonsense

Liddle has injury concerns, but when he had played 0 minutes of first grade he was considered an excellent hooker and the future of the club.

You have made similar predictions about Greg Marzhew and Billy Magoulias in the past based small bench appearances. Not everyone who can play 30 minutes of good football goes on to be a superstar

Camo123 wrote:With Munster not likely GK, I keep coming back to Flanagan

I don't think he'll provide huge value, but I think he can push close to matching Moses and potentially being 3rd keeper HLF with dominant KM

I guess the biggest question is will he still be targeted in defence and make as many tackles, because I think loss of GK is offset by added KM

With Flanno you have to consider the team that was around him, not sure any potential added KM will offset the lesser attacking opportunities he will get

Welshy wrote:

With Flanno you have to consider the team that was around him, not sure any potential added KM will offset the lesser attacking opportunities he will get

On the talking league podcast, Flanno said he'd be much more free to play like he did as a junior, and clarified by saying he'll be roving a lot more on both sides of the park. I suspect he'll be offsetting the worse side by being involved a lot more, hopefully getting more TA/LBA stats.

Not sure if it's going to be enough though.

Snatchpato wrote:
On the talking league podcast, Flanno said he'd be much more free to play like he did as a junior, and clarified by saying he'll be roving a lot more on both sides of the park. I suspect he'll be offsetting the worse side by being involved a lot more, hopefully getting more TA/LBA stats.

Not sure if it's going to be enough though.

2 teams have already dropped him mate, I'm not sure he's going to be the Bulldogs answer either. Good fantasy option because of potential huge KM ala Lewis but will struggle to beat his average last season

Snatchpato wrote:
On the talking league podcast, Flanno said he'd be much more free to play like he did as a junior, and clarified by saying he'll be roving a lot more on both sides of the park. I suspect he'll be offsetting the worse side by being involved a lot more, hopefully getting more TA/LBA stats.

Not sure if it's going to be enough though.

I would say it's easier to get TAs on one side of the Roosters attack than on both sides of the Bulldogs attack.

His kick metres could be huge though.

I keep reading about how the game is going to be quicker again this year. Are we going to see more dual hookers on the field, e.g. with one playing that smaller running lock role. I just dont see someone like Twal playing big minutes at lock. He has no speed, ball skills etc. He might start at lock but end up in the front row rotation.

Milchcow wrote:

This is why people have an issue with your predictions.

Simpkin is a guy who has played 0 minutes of first grade. He has not proven to any degree that he is capable of playing lock in a first grade game. To state with confidence he is a better player than someone who has been around a couple of years is nonsense

Liddle has injury concerns, but when he had played 0 minutes of first grade he was considered an excellent hooker and the future of the club.

You have made similar predictions about Greg Marzhew and Billy Magoulias in the past based small bench appearances. Not everyone who can play 30 minutes of good football goes on to be a superstar

Not just me, news articles quoting Madge:

As Wests Tigers prepare for an immediate future without Harry Grant, coach Michael Maguire is bullish about the club’s next hooker – and they pinched him from under Broncos noses.

Grant has been a revelation during his time at Concord and was leading the Dally M leader board before it went behind closed doors after round 10.

But with a return to the Storm imminent as he honours his contract through to 2022, Wests have been forced to find a replacement – and it comes in the form of Jake Simpkin.

The 18-year-old from Toowoomba represented Queensland in the U18 State of Origin last year and was a key player for St Mary’s Toowoomba in the private school’s elite system.

And coach Michael Maguire is bullish about his Simpkin’s future.

“We’ve got another player in Jake Simpkin coming through as well that we always believed is going to take us into the future,” Maguire said.

“He’s robust and a strong carrier of the ball. He’s a thicker build for a hooker.

“What I saw of him coming through in Queensland, he was a real talent and I’m looking forward to giving him his opportunity.”

Like Grant before him, Simpkin has a reputation for being one of best young hookers in the country and is already built for NRL, weighing in at 91kg on a 181cm frame.

Maguire, who has coached some of the best hookers in the modern game including Issac Luke, Cameron McIness and Damien Cook, is confident, between Simpkin and Jacob Liddle, the Tigers have enough talent to cover for Grant once he departs the club in 10 days.


Also Tigers forum posts:

"I've watched him up here play for Wynnum, i know its only colts but he is all class, very crafty, if your good enough your old enough, he is going to be great for Tigers. Plays a very similar role to Grant"

"Very confident in our hooking options for next season. Liddle has bounced back well from his ACL and Simpkin will be a revelation when he gets his chance."

"Everyone has recency bias with grant . He’s a great player for sure , but I say again , by all accounts and those in the know , Simpkin is better . We just have to be patient."

rhinoceroo wrote:

I would say it's easier to get TAs on one side of the Roosters attack than on both sides of the Bulldogs attack.

His kick metres could be huge though.

While I agree in theory, they didn't really go down his side that much last year. I mean he averaged 0.6 TA a game last year, as opposed to Keary's 0.9. Given it sounds as though he's going to have his hands on the ball way more, I expect those stats to go up, even in an inferior side.

though the dogs have been dreadful, wouldn't surprise me if the dogs don't even get a 0.6 TA a game average this year

Honey Badger wrote:I keep reading about how the game is going to be quicker again this year. Are we going to see more dual hookers on the field, e.g. with one playing that smaller running lock role. I just dont see someone like Twal playing big minutes at lock. He has no speed, ball skills etc. He might start at lock but end up in the front row rotation.

Yeah, he's a solid enough player but he doesn't actually *do* anything much, aside from rack up fantasy points. It's not like playing Twal for big minutes has led to a golden period of Wests Tigers success.

Honey Badger wrote:I keep reading about how the game is going to be quicker again this year. Are we going to see more dual hookers on the field, e.g. with one playing that smaller running lock role. I just dont see someone like Twal playing big minutes at lock. He has no speed, ball skills etc. He might start at lock but end up in the front row rotation.

There are news articles saying the thing that stands out about him isn't any of the things you mentioned above, but his fitness and motor really sets him apart.

Missing very few tackles will be a huge asset in a fast game and Twal is the best in the game. Went over 200 tackles without a miss while playing big minutes last season, I would be amazed if anyone else got over 100 tackles without a miss.

I was keen on a gun hooker but with turbo out and no stand out replacement it makes sense to pick an extra gun wfb like papi and pick someone like Egan should get close to 80 minutes.