Homebadbetter wrote:Anyone considering Sio Siua Taukeiaho? Or just bring him in over the origin period
With Guerra and Corder both capable of playing 80 and both likely to do so i just can't see him getting the minutes
yes for origin period
2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4
Welshy- Moderator
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With Guerra and Corder both capable of playing 80 and both likely to do so i just can't see him getting the minutes
yes for origin period
standard-issue- Moderator
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Milchcow wrote:SoylentGreen wrote:
Don't think they'll put Carlin in straight away - I reckon Kahu to the wing and Opacic in CTR til reed or maranta return
Whitchurch's name has also been mentioned. If like to see Anderson personally. But whatever the case we should get a cheapie for a few weeks
I'd love to see him get a start asap as well, but I think Bennett will leave the pressure off Carlin for a bit, he had 2 or 3 stupid errors every game in him at the Jets.
Spectre- Posts : 3196
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Lichaa is locked in to my team come round 1. Kid gets 50+ off base stats, if he improves on his attack he will be getting monster scores.
I'm hoping he starts kicking deep out of dummy half as well
I'm hoping he starts kicking deep out of dummy half as well
RandomSil- Moderator
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List of available leagues:
(Ex-Sportal) NRL Fantasy Fanatics League - JAXSM7VW
Randoms League (Gun Back Team) - 4ML5TWET
Caketiger League- TH556UES
(If any leagues are filled let me know, if your league isn't there let me know.)
(Ex-Sportal) NRL Fantasy Fanatics League - JAXSM7VW
Randoms League (Gun Back Team) - 4ML5TWET
Caketiger League- TH556UES
(If any leagues are filled let me know, if your league isn't there let me know.)
Last edited by Random on Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
Welshy- Moderator
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jstands wrote:Lichaa is locked in to my team come round 1. Kid gets 50+ off base stats, if he improves on his attack he will be getting monster scores.
I'm hoping he starts kicking deep out of dummy half as well
This Griffin/Seg lark coupled with Segs injury history is pushing me towards Lichaa plus the extra $ is pretty helpful on top of better byes
Beast From The Big East- Posts : 1654
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- Post n°326
Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4
by Beast From The Big East Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:45 pm
Random wrote:List of available leagues:
(Ex-Sportal) NRL Fantasy Fanatics League - JAXSM7VW
Randoms League (Gun Back Team) - 4ML5TWET
Caketiger League- TH556UES
Beasts - JHUJHUWA
(If any leagues are filled let me know, if your league isn't there let me know.)
Mine is all filled up now mate
Spectre- Posts : 3196
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Valentine dumped from the 9's squad
http://m.smh.com.au/rugby-league/cronulla-sharks/nrl-auckland-nines-2016-valentine-holmes-stood-down-from-tournament-by-cronulla-sharks-20160202-gmjghy.html
http://m.smh.com.au/rugby-league/cronulla-sharks/nrl-auckland-nines-2016-valentine-holmes-stood-down-from-tournament-by-cronulla-sharks-20160202-gmjghy.html
rhinoceroo- Fanatic
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Welshy87 wrote:
With Guerra and Corder both capable of playing 80 and both likely to do so i just can't see him getting the minutes
yes for origin period
Non-origin Roosters forwards are going to be gold after the first bye, especially SST.
Don't think he's a bad pick to start the season either. Can see him getting a few more minutes, and Roosters are going to be relying on their pack to do a lot more grunt now that their backline is shit. Have my eye on SST and JWH - in reality more for Round 13 on, but wouldn't be surprised if they've added a few dollars by then.
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Good evening the night owls, just wondering has anyone done much research on game theory and thinking about applying it to season long fantasy? I've done a bit for daily fantasy and think some of it would be very handy for initial lineups in season long
standard-issue- Moderator
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multiple.scoregasms wrote:Was interested in Lichaa's stats with/without Hodkinson so did a bit of digging
Michael Lichaa
Average 50.04 in 73.19 minutes consisting of 43.19 tackles, 45.66 run metres and 0.5 kick metres per game.
Lichaa played 4 games in 2015 without Hodkinson in the side for an average of 60.75 (75 in round 11, 59 in round 14, 46 in round 15 and 63 in round 18). These games consisted of 48 tackles, 61.5 run metres and 0 kick metres per game.
Round 11- 75 points in 80 minutes
Lichaa's score was boosted by a try, 3 tbs and try assist, however he had a solid base with 43 tackles, 103 metres and only 2 missed tackles.
Round 14- 59 points in 80 minutes
No attacking stats for Lichaa this time round with 45 tackles, 58 metres, 2 tackle breaks, 2 offloads, 1 kick defused making up his points.
Round 15- 46 points in 80 minutes
Again no attacking stats with score being dominated by base stats. 41 tackles, 60 metres, 3 missed tackles.
Round 18- 63 points in 80 minutes.
A monster 63 tackles to go along with 25 run metres and only 1 missed.
Conclusion: When removing extra attacking stats, Hodkinson's absence seems to have had no effect on Lichaa's scores. However an injury affeced 1 in 4 minutes lowers his season average 2.5 points to 52.5. When considering 80 minute games only Lichaa's average jumps to 56.
Good stuff MS. I've had Segeyaro/Lichaa since the comp opened. I was interested in Peats as well with bye coverage, but the extra 30k unsettles my team elsewhere.
Guest- Guest
I just cant bring myself to not run with Smith because the year that I didnt run with him I spent weeks on end trying to get him into my squad and injuries / peaking cash cows etc kept getting in the way.
standard-issue- Moderator
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Shanbon wrote:Good evening the night owls, just wondering has anyone done much research on game theory and thinking about applying it to season long fantasy? I've done a bit for daily fantasy and think some of it would be very handy for initial lineups in season long
Do you mean NRL theory specifically, or the theory behind winning games in general?
badbetter- Posts : 243
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This year will be the year I master saving trades (say it every year - run out every year)
GoingNuts- Posts : 231
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I just posted this but its not appearing in the list so apologies if its a repost.
What is everyone's thoughts on:
Granville & Hurrell
or
Lichaa & Copley
On current averages they are pretty similar.
Lichaa and Copley I think will be more consistent and with Copley getting consistent game time he should increase some.
However, Granville & Hurrell has more potential to show big increases if Hurrell finds his old form and Granville makes the most of the tired forwards due to limited interchange.
Thoughts?
What is everyone's thoughts on:
Granville & Hurrell
or
Lichaa & Copley
On current averages they are pretty similar.
Lichaa and Copley I think will be more consistent and with Copley getting consistent game time he should increase some.
However, Granville & Hurrell has more potential to show big increases if Hurrell finds his old form and Granville makes the most of the tired forwards due to limited interchange.
Thoughts?
Milchcow- Moderator
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He means game theory as in mathematical theory behind decision making. Prisoners Dilemma, Ultimatum Game, etc
If you haven't heard of those things you should dedicate some time to do some reading. A Beautiful Mind is the story of John Nash, one of the pioneers.
For one of the best examples of it watch this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8
But I have never really applied it to fantasy. Can't see how it would be relevant for initial team selection, more useful for stuff like captain choice, final trades at the end of the season if things are close (Like PGC in the closing rounds last year)
rhinoceroo- Fanatic
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Shanbon wrote:Good evening the night owls, just wondering has anyone done much research on game theory and thinking about applying it to season long fantasy? I've done a bit for daily fantasy and think some of it would be very handy for initial lineups in season long
There's a lot around about game theory and Daily Fantasy in the NRL. Am a bit sceptical as to how it applies to season long. A lot of it would involve selling players a couple of weeks before everyone else, which some might call game theory and others would call luck.
I'm sure there's some Maths you could do to work out optimal position spends - but then you'd also have to work out how to pick sub-optimally in the optimal way
. Again this seems more likely to have a return in Daily Fantasy and also strikes me as just too much bloody work. 
SoylentGreen- Posts : 3907
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Shanbon wrote:Good evening the night owls, just wondering has anyone done much research on game theory and thinking about applying it to season long fantasy? I've done a bit for daily fantasy and think some of it would be very handy for initial lineups in season long
Read a little bit about it, but the maths are a bit beyond me without dedicating some time to re-learning everything I forgot from Maths C (I generally leave this to my wife who does regex crosswords for fun). With my limited understanding I can see how it would be applicable to daily fantasy or draft games, but wouldn't the scenarios for season-long fantasy just be too complex to do anything useful with?
badbetter- Posts : 243
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GoingNuts wrote:I just posted this but its not appearing in the list so apologies if its a repost.
What is everyone's thoughts on:
Granville & Hurrell
or
Lichaa & Copley
On current averages they are pretty similar.
Lichaa and Copley I think will be more consistent and with Copley getting consistent game time he should increase some.
However, Granville & Hurrell has more potential to show big increases if Hurrell finds his old form and Granville makes the most of the tired forwards due to limited interchange.
Thoughts?
Granville if more minutes more upside, wants to be 80mins. (if no bench named Rnd 1 everyone will have him)
Hurrell - Great if can hold a spot in 1st Grade, D lets him down big time. The in & away gets him time & time again. Warriors winning & piling on points helps him
Lichaa - Lock but could be a tad biased
Copley - Why not everyone else will probably have the cheap centre or wfb (including me)
No Risk, No reward go with your gut feeling on players
Milchcow- Moderator
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rhinoceroo wrote:
There's a lot around about game theory and Daily Fantasy in the NRL. Am a bit sceptical as to how it applies to season long. A lot of it would involve selling players a couple of weeks before everyone else, which some might call game theory and others would call luck.
I'm sure there's some Maths you could do to work out optimal position spends - but then you'd also have to work out how to pick sub-optimally in the optimal way
Would be much more interesting if your trades actually impacted other teams though. Working out the right time to sell someone is really independant of the actions of your competitiors, and also the end result (the players score) is independent of your actions too.
Maybe if its someone who will be in every team like Hastings, then that sort of thinking could come into it.
Draft comps would be another source where it might be useful. Working out the right time to pick someone like Te Maire Martin who isn't in first grade but might be soon.
Nearly NRL bidding wars also good - everyone should play Nearly NRL anyway.
SoylentGreen- Posts : 3907
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Milchcow wrote:
Would be much more interesting if your trades actually impacted other teams though. Working out the right time to sell someone is really independant of the actions of your competitiors, and also the end result (the players score) is independent of your actions too.
Maybe if its someone who will be in every team like Hastings, then that sort of thinking could come into it.
Draft comps would be another source where it might be useful. Working out the right time to pick someone like Te Maire Martin who isn't in first grade but might be soon.
Nearly NRL bidding wars also good - everyone should play Nearly NRL anyway.
So in draft comps, you are working on the basis that there is an optimum selection sequence, and by disrupting that sequence you can influence the actions of other players? Or am i missing the point completely?