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    NRL Fantasy 2021 - Part 9 - ‘Twas the weekend before TLT

    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:38 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:

    Anyone wanna try sell Tino to me?

    At 1.49am I think not. 

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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:14 am

    Bethany_B wrote:Anyone else considering swapping Tino for NAS?

    In games last year that NAS got over 40 mins, he averaged 60, or 54 if you take his tries and line breaks away (in an average of 50.7 minutes over those 6 games).

    Given that Grant and Finucane are both injured, I think NAS is very likely to get substantial minutes in the opening 5-6 rounds, and add to that the fact that he's a huge attacking threat unlike Welch, I think he could be a very handy early season POD
    I already had NAS before the Grant and Finucane injuries. He started in the trial with Finucane off the bench so they had a captain on the field all game. The great thing about NAS is his huge ppm, when he also gets minutes his scoring sky rockets.

    We saw with kbrom previously that if a guy is in a role and doing a great job at it, it's his to lose. Is their premier prop, has lost weight and is much fitter. If he demonstrates he can play 50 minutes easily, he is their most damaging forward and will keep that role when players return.

    Average of 58 in games >40 minutes last season.
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:21 am

    Looks like Dearden, Oates, Paix, Hetherington (along with Albert Kelly, Kevin Locke, and Karmichael Hunt) all played for Souths Logan last night.
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:22 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    That's fair enough, though that said, NAS was playing more minutes at the end of last year when Finucane was out (mid 50s instead of his usual 40ish), and he played very low minutes at the start of last year. Add that to the fact that he's much more of an attacking weapon than other mids at his price range, and I think he's worth a try. Worst case scenario he gets low minutes at his great PPM and I downgrade him to a missed cheapie after 3-4 weeks.
    Really pleased I picked you in the Fantasy Fantasy comp Smile
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:26 am

    my tv broke wrote:Looks like Dearden, Oates, Paix, Hetherington (along with Albert Kelly, Kevin Locke, and Karmichael Hunt) all played for Souths Logan last night.

    If Oates, Paix and Dearden aren't there, what do you expect the broncos bench to look like?
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:30 am

    mattnz wrote:

    If Oates and Paix aren't there, what do you expect the broncos bench to look like?

    Flelger Asiata will definitely be two of them, sounds like Teo will be a third.

    Dunno if playing the trial necessarily rules out the other two, but id hope its a utility because four forwards is a waste. Not really expectinf whoever it is to get any meaningful mins unless injury


    Last edited by my tv broke on Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:48 am; edited 1 time in total
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:47 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    Flelger Asiata will definitely be two of them, sounds like Teo will be a third.

    Dunno if playing the trial necessarily rules out the other two, but id hope its a utility because four forwards is a waste

    Broncos fans seem to have high wraps on Bullemor?
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:49 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:


    Broncos fans seem to have high wraps on Bullemor?


    I like what ive seen of him but not sure where he stands at the moment, seems down the list

    Flegler and Asiata would be the only ones who get any real mins.
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    Post by easytiger Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:04 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    I'm convinced EasyTiger is either the most logical Tigers fan or Moses Mbye

    Not sure which one

    Logical Tigers fan is clearly an oxymoron (it's the tenth anniversary of when we last made the finals!)

    Oh crap, I'm Moses Mbye!
    Does this make me a no go for Fantasy Fantasy? - I don't like to realise my potential you know.
    Ah well, at least I get paid well - Have I told you about my pool?
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:24 am

    my tv broke wrote:Sort of surprised by the interest in Welch. Ive always liked him as a player but i thought his bigger min games came when their bench was made up of vete/lewis/schronig/nuffies (havent done any research at all tbh)

    Obvs they have a couple of injuries there at the moment but theyre pretty short term

    I liked Welch even before the injuries, but they just give him a bit more upside

    In games he started at prop and didn't get injured or purely 1 spell (40+ minutes) he averaged 47 in 51. The injuries in the pack should see him pick up a few extra minutes to start the year.

    Loose plan is to start with Welch then in round 4 when he has made 100k or so, grab whichever fullback has copped an injury/low score to bring their price down and use them as my 3rd WFB for the year. Could be anyone from Edwards, Nofo, Brimson, Papy, Gutho, RTS tier.
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:47 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Or: The great thing about Bellamy is if NAS is having a blinder he plays him more minutes.
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:06 am

    2020 Games > 40 minutes PPM 1.16
    2020 Games < 40 minutes PPM 1.27

    The stats don't align with your theory. Just a beast regardless of minutes played. He wasn't any less effective in his shorter stints, so doesn't indicate a reward for how he was playing. Started last season with low minutes, after coming back from injury, so is under-priced.
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:09 am

    mattnz wrote:

    2020 Games > 40 minutes PPM 1.16
    2020 Games < 40 minutes PPM 1.27

    The stats don't align with your theory. Just a beast regardless of minutes played.
    Surely that logic would apply to most forwards with high PPMs

    The less mins they play the higher the PPM
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:18 am

    Camo123 wrote:
    Surely that logic would apply to most forwards with high PPMs

    The less mins they play the higher the PPM
    Yes, just doesn't suggest any validity to NAS being rewarded more minutes when playing well in a game. He was killing it in the games he received low minutes in last season as well.
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    Post by Honey Badger Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:42 am

    Do we know what the backrow minutes going to be like for the Panthers? We never got to see the rotation with Capewell, Kikau and Martin last season.
    With KK and Davey unlikely im rethinking my Edge. Would rather have Fifita and Capewell with Riki on the bench than starting with Riki and either Gosi or Host on the bench.
    If Capewell is going to rotate and not play 80 then not worth the extra money.
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    Post by mattnz Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:48 am

    Honey Badger wrote:Do we know what the backrow minutes going to be like for the Panthers? We never got to see the rotation with Capewell, Kikau and Martin last season.
    With KK and Davey unlikely im rethinking my Edge. Would rather have Fifita and Capewell with Riki on the bench than starting with Riki and either Gosi or Host on the bench.
    If Capewell is going to rotate and not play 80 then not worth the extra money.
    Panthers assistant coach - We are going to give Capewell and Martin as many minutes as possible
    Cleary - Capewell will start, Martin will play some time in the middle

    Kikau will play a lower minute impact role, Martin will get time in the middle for either Yeo or JFH and Capewell is looking likely set to play 80.
    They can't have 2 starting edges both playing less than 80 minutes, uses too many interchanges.
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    Post by Honey Badger Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:55 am

    mattnz wrote:
    Panthers assistant coach - We are going to give Capewell and Martin as many minutes as possible
    Cleary - Capewell will start, Martin will play some time in the middle

    Kikau will play a lower minute impact role, Martin will get time in the middle for either Yeo or JFH and Capewell is looking likely set to play 80.
    They can't have 2 starting edges both playing less than 80 minutes, uses too many interchanges.

    Sweet thanks for the info. I hadn't really considered Capewell because I couldn't pick him in my ctrs anymore!
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:03 am

    Capewell should play 80 most weeks so long as he is starting. Martin was great there last year so if capewell misses a week he could lose the spot, cleary may just mix things up during the season anyway depending on form

    There will be games where Kikau plays 80 and capewell may get subbed..

    I think if you pick him you need to consider he might not be set and forget


    Last edited by my tv broke on Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:15 am

    Holy Moly wrote:

    Spose I would have been surprised if you'd said she frequently leans over your shoulder while your working on your team and excitedly talks about the decisions you're making.

    Hahaha this is great.

    I generally wind up my missus by excitedly telling her by FPL and FNRL ranks every few week, usually in the middle of a serious conversation.

    I think she just wishes I was a more useful nerd tbh. Like could fix things or something.

    I did try and impress my kids once by saying I was 739th in FPL.

    “That’s terrible!”

    “But it’s 739 out of over 8,000,000 people”

    *thinking and still not getting fractions*

    “Terrible”

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    Post by Lemmy KGB Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:24 am

    Bethany_B wrote:Also I'm seriously considering Frizell as a sneaky POD on the edge.

    Reasoning is that he got basically zero attacking stats last year and is now in a much better team, opening up the possibility of attacking stats.

    Do we think he'll maintain his workrate from last year? If so then I see very little risk and decent upside for a POD pick

    Gosh, the attacking side of those stats are very stark indeed!

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